# Brasil 2014 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [May 6, 2014, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840 "2014-05-06T21:19:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 165
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3281 "2014-07-13T05:20:31Z")
Explain [these odds](http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/germany-v-argentina/winner) to me for Sunday’s Germany/Argentina match. How can there be odds for a draw? ---
**Author:** ![Man\_from\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Man\_from\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Man_from_Mars)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3282 "2014-07-13T05:23:11Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#): > > Explain [these odds](http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/germany-v-argentina/winner) to me for Sunday’s Germany/Argentina match. How can there be odds for a draw? If the game goes to penalty kicks, it will officially be recorded as a draw. The penalty kick contest is a tiebreaker so that a team either moves on when there is no separation between tied teams or, in the case of a final, a winner can be crowned. Before its invention, they would replay the game. When that was no longer feasible, the actual method was to flip a coin! ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3283 "2014-07-13T05:28:17Z")
> [@Man\_from\_Mars](#): > > If the game goes to penalty kicks, it will officially be recorded as a draw. The penalty kick contest is a tiebreaker so that a team either moves on when there is no separation between tied teams or, in the case of a final, a winner can be crowned. Before its invention, they would replay the game. When that was no longer feasible, the actual method was to flip a coin! Ah! Thank you my good man. Now I can go forth and wager with new found confidence… ---
**Author:** ![Man\_from\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Man\_from\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Man_from_Mars)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3284 "2014-07-13T05:28:32Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > So, yeah, if I’m betting and somebody is crazy enough to give me even money on the team to score first losing, of course I’m taking that bet in a heartbeat. It happens, though, and not even that rarely. In this tournament, I know Mexico suffered a loss after scoring first. And, just off the top of my head, I believe Japan also lost after scoring first. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3285 "2014-07-13T05:34:57Z")
> [@Man\_from\_Mars](#): > > It happens, though, and not even that rarely. In this tournament, I know Mexico suffered a loss after scoring first. And, just off the top of my head, I believe Japan also lost after scoring first. Of course it happens. I’m not saying it’s a rare event at all. But I expect that the first goal does not lose well better than 50% of the time, so that even money bet should put me well ahead in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![Man\_from\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Man\_from\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Man_from_Mars)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3286 "2014-07-13T05:39:44Z")
> [@Man\_from\_Mars](#): > > It happens, though, and not even that rarely. In this tournament, I know Mexico suffered a loss after scoring first. And, just off the top of my head, I believe Japan also lost after scoring first. I just checked two other groups randomly and found that Ecuador’s games against Switzerland and Honduras featured first-scorers losing, as well as the game between Algeria and Belgium. Soccer is a low-scoring game but a one goal deficit is hardly a mountain to climb (especially in the early rounds when teams are less evenly matched). An equalizer resets the game and then it’s a 33% shot as to whether a comeback is completed, the original leaders win, or both teams share a point. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3287 "2014-07-13T05:43:41Z")
Yes, and Brazil beat Croatia after the Croats scored first, too. But the majority of the time, the team that scores first does not lose. We can easily crunch the numbers for this World Cup, if we want. ---
**Author:** ![Man\_from\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Man\_from\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Man_from_Mars)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3288 "2014-07-13T06:04:16Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Yes, and Brazil beat Croatia after the Croats scored first, too. But the majority of the time, the team that scores first does not lose. We can easily crunch the numbers for this World Cup, if we want. I’m not disagreeing with you. It’s obvious that the team that scores first wins more often. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3289 "2014-07-13T06:05:24Z")
So, for this World Cup, for games where at least one goal was scored (so not counting penalty shootout after 0-0 regulation and extra time), I see the following: The team to score first has won 42 times, lost 8, and been tied 6 (if counting penalty shootouts after regulation and extra time with at least one goal each as ties). If you count the penalty shootouts in games that were tied with at least a goal each, it’s 44 - 8 - 4. It’s possible I miscounted one or two, but those should be in the right ballpark. In the first round, it’s 32-7-4. In the round of 16 and beyond, there’s only one loss: Netherlands-Mexico, where Mexico scored first. And there are two games that went into penalties after a non 0-0 game: Brazil-Chile and Costa Rica-Greece, and in both the team that scored the first goal won (although that really should be counted as a tie for our statistical purposes, I’d think.) ---
**Author:** ![Arrogance\_Ex\_Machina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/arrogance_ex_machina/32/192_2.png) [@Arrogance\_Ex\_Machina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arrogance_Ex_Machina)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3290 "2014-07-13T06:13:25Z")
Giving out all those examples but forgetting that Spain’s 1-5 loss vs Netherlands started with them getting their only goal first? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3291 "2014-07-13T06:18:07Z")
> [@Arrogance\_Ex\_Machina](#): > > Giving out all those examples but forgetting that Spain’s 1-5 loss vs Netherlands started with them getting their only goal first? Yes, that as well. That’s in the numbers above. The poster asking the question was curious about what percentage of the time the team that scores first wins. Those numbers and the others quoted in the thread should give him some ballpark idea. And it seems that once you’re out of the groups, it becomes even more difficult to win if you don’t score the first goal, but it’s a relatively small sample size we’re dealing with. I don’t have the time to go back to the last few World Cups and dig up the stats after the group rounds are over. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3292 "2014-07-13T06:27:07Z")
> [@Man\_from\_Mars](#): > > An equalizer resets the game and then it’s a 33% shot as to whether a comeback is completed, the original leaders win, or both teams share a point. Actually, that stat would start getting into true statistical geekiness a la the nerding out people do over baseball (Sabremetrics and the sort). I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers don’t work out quite that neatly. But the straightforward question of how often does the team to score first win doesn’t make you a stat geek, and it’s a bit bizarre that it seems to have raised the hackles of a poster. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3293 "2014-07-13T06:31:36Z")
Ok, diff between Brazil and Spain? IMO, Spain were a good side which was shell shocked in their first match, Brazil were a truly abysmal side which got lucky to play weak teams and get favourable refereeing. By, the way, does football have anything akin to [statsguru](http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html)? ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3294 "2014-07-13T07:40:40Z")
No other sport has anything as good as statsguru. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3295 "2014-07-13T07:46:03Z")
As for how often a team scoring wins I think alot will depend on when that first goal is scored. If its scored in the first 20 minutes of a game its easier to overturn. If its scored with only 20 minutes of the game left then its harder to come back and win. As for stats they have been coming into the game more. We now get players semi-officially being awarded for “assists”. The term assists were previously unheard of; other than some cloth capped manager saying “well done lad” to some slippery winger beating a man and putting in a cross for a goal. Cricinfo, isn’t that like Wisden for the internet? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3296 "2014-07-13T08:10:48Z")
Argentina is playing in[the away kit](http://www.telam.com.ar/english/notas/201407/2742-argentina-to-wear-blue-shirt-in-final-match-against-germany.html) in the World Cup final. Bad news for the Argies, they have lost both the finals where they have played in the away kit. Spain won in 2010 with the away kit. England in 1966 ---
**Author:** ![polar\_bear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ec9cab/32.png) [@polar\_bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/polar_bear)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3297 "2014-07-13T09:33:56Z")
According to the book Socceronomics it is somewhere in the seond half that it become smart to take a red card instead of letting a break through lead to a goal (I’ve lent out my copy, so I can’t look up the exact minute). So a penalty and no red is better for the defending in the second minute (statistically at least). For the Dutch team Memphis, Fer, Wijnaldum, Kuyt, Huntelaar, Lens, Verhaagh, Krul were made with some kind of tactical change in mind (in comparison with the starting line up against Spain). Clasie, Kongolo and Veltman were put in as direct replacements for tired players and Vorm just to let everyone have some playing time. We started each game with the best possible team, given injuries and suspensions. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3298 "2014-07-13T10:30:10Z")
> [@Man\_from\_Mars](#): > > If the game goes to penalty kicks, it will officially be recorded as a draw. The penalty kick contest is a tiebreaker so that a team either moves on when there is no separation between tied teams or, in the case of a final, a winner can be crowned. Before its invention, they would replay the game. When that was no longer feasible, the actual method was to flip a coin! Clarification, those are for **90 minutes** , so a game won in Extra Time, (not just penalties) would be a draw. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3299 "2014-07-13T11:25:16Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#): > > Explain [these odds](http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/germany-v-argentina/winner) to me for Sunday’s Germany/Argentina match. How can there be odds for a draw? Those odds are for 90 minutes plus injury time, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2014, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/3300 "2014-07-13T11:25:19Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > The poster asking the question was curious about what percentage of the time the team that scores first wins. Those numbers and the others quoted in the thread should give him some ballpark idea. Indeed they do - thank you. > [@](#): > > … it’s a bit bizarre that it seems to have raised the hackles of a poster. Yes - I (perhaps naively) thought it a rather innocent question. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840.md?page=164) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840.md?page=166)