# Brasil 2014
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [May 6, 2014, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840 "2014-05-06T21:19:25Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@Ximenean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ximenean)
#### Post date: [May 13, 2014, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/21 "2014-05-13T19:20:36Z")
I’m disappointed to see that many if not all teams will be playing in drab monochrome kits rather than their traditional colours. Spain in all red, Germany and England in all white, etc. I think this is due to some nannyish regulation from FIFA about ‘predominantly dark or predominantly light’ kits.
Surely they’re not going to have the hosts change their famous yellow/blue/white strip? Although I have seen them turning out recently in yellow/white/white, which looks hideous. It’s bad enough when they wear blue socks.
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### Author:  [@polar\_bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/polar_bear)
#### Post date: [May 13, 2014, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/22 "2014-05-13T19:47:16Z")
I love most of the kits; pretty much back to basics, France especially is gorgeous.
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### Author:  [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)
#### Post date: [May 13, 2014, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/23 "2014-05-13T21:44:12Z")
I have three not-world-class teams that I I’m sentimentally attached to: USA (home country), Costa Rica (a bunch of cousins from there), and Australia (wife is from there). The only real argument is about which of those three is the most screwed by the draw.
(Well, according to [Nate Silver](http://regressing.deadspin.com/nate-silvers-model-gives-the-usmnt-a-39-4-percent-chanc-1480312496), Australia is by far the worst off, with a much lower chance than any other team in the WC of advancing past the group stage. Interestingly, he gives the US only a very very slightly worse chance of making it out of the group than Portugal, so… fingers crossed.)
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### Author:  [@Svejk\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Svejk_1)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/24 "2014-05-16T16:01:37Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#):
>
> I have three not-world-class teams that I I’m sentimentally attached to: USA (home country), Costa Rica (a bunch of cousins from there), and Australia (wife is from there). The only real argument is about which of those three is the most screwed by the draw.
>
> (Well, according to [Nate Silver](http://regressing.deadspin.com/nate-silvers-model-gives-the-usmnt-a-39-4-percent-chanc-1480312496), Australia is by far the worst off, with a much lower chance than any other team in the WC of advancing past the group stage. Interestingly, he gives the US only a very very slightly worse chance of making it out of the group than Portugal, so… fingers crossed.)
Those countries are not so much ‘screwed by the draw’, they’re just not very good, and the only way they’d have a reasonably good chance of proceeding would be if they got super super lucky in the draw.
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### Author:  [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/25 "2014-05-16T17:20:47Z")
Very excited. I agree that the likely winner will be Brazil, Germany, Argentina, or Spain, but I also think the USA will do better than expected.
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### Author:  [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/26 "2014-05-16T17:56:47Z")
> [@Svejk\_1](#):
>
> Those countries are not so much ‘screwed by the draw’, they’re just not very good, and the only way they’d have a reasonably good chance of proceeding would be if they got super super lucky in the draw.
Well, yes and no. I think going into the draw the USA (which is clearly better than Costa Rica and Australia) was probably \> 50% to make it out of its group. Put it in group C or group E (in place of whatever team came out of its same pool) and the round of 16 looks pretty likely.
Similarly, Costa Rica’s chances of making it out of pool play went from low to very low, and Australia’s went from very low to pretty-much-nill.
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/27 "2014-05-16T19:08:31Z")
> [@dalej42](#):
>
> Spain or Germany will win.
It’s possible. But I doubt it. Spain’s achieved something remarkable in becoming the first team, ever, to win three straight major titles (when I first heard that I thought maybe there was some Eurocentrism creeping through so I checked to see if either Brasil or Argentina or Uruguay had ever done that, first, but…nope). I have a feeling that their run is coming to an end this time (although I wouldn’t be _too_ broken up if they were to “four-peat”). Germany? Honestly, the German team has never been a favorite of mine although the current team under Löw doesn’t seem _too_ bad. I have my doubts about them, too: the German team has never done particularly well in World Cups held in South America and, more importantly, it seems to have injury concerns and its defense, usually considered one of its strengths (although I’m not one to believe that its defense is ever any stronger than any other good team’s) is by all accounts sub-par this time (with the apparent exceptions of Manuel Neuer and Philip Lahm). It could happen, either of those teams lifting the trophy on July 12th, but I’m not nearly as optimistic about that happening as you (and that other poster) are.
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### Author:  [@polar\_bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/polar_bear)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/28 "2014-05-16T19:20:03Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#):
>
> Well, yes and no. I think going into the draw the USA (which is clearly better than Costa Rica and Australia) was probably \> 50% to make it out of its group. Put it in group C or group E (in place of whatever team came out of its same pool) and the round of 16 looks pretty likely.
>
> Similarly, Costa Rica’s chances of making it out of pool play went from low to very low, and Australia’s went from very low to pretty-much-nill.
That is 2 out of 8 groups. How would you get to \>50%?
There are a few countries that are somewhat screwed with the draw: one out of Chile, Holland or Spain is going out and the same with Italy, Uruguay and England.
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### Author:  [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/29 "2014-05-16T20:06:21Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#):
>
> Well, yes and no. I think going into the draw the USA (which is clearly better than Costa Rica and Australia) was probably \> 50% to make it out of its group. Put it in group C or group E (in place of whatever team came out of its same pool) and the round of 16 looks pretty likely.
>
> Similarly, Costa Rica’s chances of making it out of pool play went from low to very low, and Australia’s went from very low to pretty-much-nill.
I thought the U.S. edge over Costa Rica was very slight in qualifying. In the final round, the U.S. won in the snow in Denver and then just about got run out of Costa Rica’s sweet new stadium in the rematch.
> [@polar\_bear](#):
>
> That is 2 out of 8 groups. How would you get to \>50%?
>
> There are a few countries that are somewhat screwed with the draw: one out of Chile, Holland or Spain is going out and the same with Italy, Uruguay and England.
I really think this is the WC where England doesn’t get out of group. Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani will have no fear of England for Uruguay and the Italians traditionally gel into a tough defensive unit for WCs. Also, the aforementioned Costa Ricans are no slouches; looking past them would be England’s mistake.
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/30 "2014-05-16T20:11:30Z")
> [@mascaroni](#):
>
> I’m assuming that the ‘mc’ in **mcgato** and the tone of your post indicates that you are Scottish or of Scottish ancestry…
>
> In which case I deem you an impartial observer (excluding England matches obviously), as Scotland’s only representatives beyond the first round have been match officials.
I know, isn’t that pitiful? It’s a little hard to imagine, now, but the Scots were once thought of as one of the top footballers around. But you’re right - if I’m not mistaken no Scottish national team has ever advanced past the first round of either a World Cup or a European Championship. That’s just sad. (and before anyone says - well, look at the SIZE of Scotland. All told it’s done pretty well just to GET to those tournaments. I respond with: “Wales, Éire, and Northern Ireland have all advanced past the first round of at least one World Cup. And none of those countries was ever thought of as highly in soccer as Scotland once was. What’s the Scottish team’s excuse?”)
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/31 "2014-05-16T20:17:17Z")
> [@mascaroni](#):
>
> Actually, **that was Uruguay** , a country with at that time a population the size of… [drum roll]… Wales!
>
> England didn’t progress to the group stages in that tournament (after graciously having consented to enter) after losing to the U.S.A. 1-0, the goal scored by Joe Gaetjens.
>
> The story of Gaetjens took a tragic turn, he returned to his native Haiti and because he had family members actively opposing ‘Papa Doc’ Duvalier he was imprisoned and then killed in the notorious Fort Dimanche.
>
> Story [here.](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26515082)
I was referring to _La Charrúa_ when I typed that. I don’t pay much attention to club soccer these days but I’m pretty good with World Cup history. And yeah, I’d read about Gaetjens. My understanding is that the English have never given him much (if any) credit for scoring the goal that beat them 64 years ago but you’re absolutely right about the way his life’s story ended. Not good.
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/32 "2014-05-16T20:31:55Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#):
>
> All fair enough but I’m not sure many people would have diverted wildly from this squad he chose. If we take the old-guard we’ll get what the old-guard always gives us and bearing in mind that our last world cup outing **was the worst major-tournament performance by England that I have ever seen** …we don’t want that again.
> No-one is expecting us to do particularly well as we just don’t have the strength in depth to play sustained possession football like the top teams. Roy Hodgson has proved that he’s good at putting together a game plan but the problem is whether we are good enough as a team to execute it well enough. I think not.
>
> The best I’m hoping for is to be _entertained_. I’ll live happily with a group stage exit if we actually try to win games and view this as a blooding exercise for the next generation.
> For all his dour persona, Hodgson is not averse to taking a bit of a risk and the four lads you mention, playing with the shackles off, can certainly do damage (such a shame Townsend is injured though)
>
> I suspect we might see the making of Lallana at the tournament. I like him a lot. Great vision, one of those players that makes others around him look good.
Yeah, that beat-down by the Germans was a humiliation although it might have gone differently had that goal been counted the way it should have been (as far as I’m concerned the Germans no longer have any room to complain about 1966 after what happened between the two teams four years ago). I’m used to seeing England get eliminated from tournaments but not usually that decisively.
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#):
>
> My tip? Germany. Fit, technically good, **great counter-attacking** , good balance of youth and experience.
There’s this Englishman I “know” only through cyberspace (we e-mail back and forth on soccer matters from time to time). He seems, as you do, to have a (grudging) respect of _Deutscher Fußball_. I don’t, but I jumped on the German bandwagon last time after the thrashings by _Die Nationalmannschaft_ of the English and the Argentines. He cautioned that the German team is very good but that it, unlike German national teams of yore, doesn’t seem to do well after it falls behind. Sure enough, as invincible as it looked in the second round and the quarterfinals last time it wasn’t _quite_ as impressive against the Spanish now, was it? (Proving, to me, that even the _mighty_ Germans have a hard time getting to the Final of a tournament when they’re actually faced with some difficult opponents on the way) We’ll see but I have a feeling that all the people who are convinced that the Germans are going to be the ones to end the Spanish streak of titles will probably be wrong. And for all of you who just can’t seem to get enough of Die Nationalmannschaft I remind you (as I just **love** to do) that that team hasn’t lifted a trophy since 1996. I don’t see that changing before 2018 at the soonest.
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/33 "2014-05-16T20:36:51Z")
> [@Ximenean](#):
>
> I’m disappointed to see that many if not all teams will be playing in drab monochrome kits rather than their traditional colours. Spain in all red, Germany and England in all white, etc. I think this is due to some nannyish regulation from FIFA about ‘predominantly dark or predominantly light’ kits.
> Surely they’re not going to have the hosts change their famous yellow/blue/white strip? Although I have seen them turning out recently in yellow/white/white, which looks hideous. It’s bad enough when they wear blue socks.
I agree. I’m a fan of the Brasilian team but I’ve never liked the color yellow but I can at least tolerate it when it’s contrasted with something. For those who believe that “white goes with anything” I offer the color yellow as a counterexample.
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/34 "2014-05-16T20:40:13Z")
> [@polar\_bear](#):
>
> That is 2 out of 8 groups. How would you get to \>50%?
>
> There are a few countries that are somewhat screwed with the draw: one out of Chile, Holland or Spain is going out and the same with Italy, Uruguay and England.
I’m actually ½ Chilean (although I would say that my “Chilean ½” is quite “dormant”). I’ve always been a fan of the Dutch team but I’m less so, now, after the shenanigans it produced during the last World Cup Final. Matter of fact I’m not really pulling for it any more. I’m very curious how the Chile vs. Netherlands match in Brasil turns out. Can’t honestly say I’ll be disappointed if Chile wins it.
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### Author:  [@chizzuk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chizzuk)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/35 "2014-05-16T21:18:21Z")
> [@racepug](#):
>
> It’s possible. But I doubt it. Spain’s achieved something remarkable in becoming the first team, ever, to win three straight major titles (when I first heard that I thought maybe there was some Eurocentrism creeping through so I checked to see if either Brasil or Argentina or Uruguay had ever done that, first, but…nope). I have a feeling that their run is coming to an end this time (although I wouldn’t be _too_ broken up if they were to “four-peat”). Germany? Honestly, the German team has never been a favorite of mine although the current team under Löw doesn’t seem _too_ bad. I have my doubts about them, too: the German team has never done particularly well in World Cups held in South America and, more importantly, it seems to have injury concerns and its defense, usually considered one of its strengths (although I’m not one to believe that its defense is ever any stronger than any other good team’s) is by all accounts sub-par this time (with the apparent exceptions of Manuel Neuer and Philip Lahm). It could happen, either of those teams lifting the trophy on July 12th, but I’m not nearly as optimistic about that happening as you (and that other poster) are.
Germany have a host of problems. Schweinsteiger has been dreadfully off-form for months and has been clogging up Bayern’s midfield the entire Hinrunde. There is no clear striker, as Gomez has been left out due to injury and Klose is rapidly fossilizing and injury-prone. Khedira has barely played in 6 months. I don’t know how Loew will pick among Hummels/Mertesacker/Boateng at CB but he always seems to get it wrong. And now we have the added complication that Bayern have been playing Lahm in DM and Loew loves to try to copy Bayern. On the positive side, Lahm has shown a flair for the position and seems to enjoy it, but on the other hand, he is desperately needed at RB (and LB, if we’re being honest–sorry, Marcel Schmelzer).
I’ll be rooting for Germany, but I don’t have much hope for a title.
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### Author:  [@racepug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/racepug)
#### Post date: [May 16, 2014, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/36 "2014-05-16T22:44:52Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#):
>
> Even though Brazil has chosen a fairly unspectacular roster, they’re still my pick. They may have the best defensive half in the tournament, which will allow Neymar to roam free at the top, counterattacking in space against national defenses which are traditionally not as cohesive as those of the top clubs.
>
> As a dark horse, I’m having increasingly positive thoughts about France. **Looking to rebound from the disaster that was 2010** and with lots of stars sprinkled through the lineup – Ribery, Giroud, Pogba and the kid who’s going to be one, Anton Griezeman.
I’ve noticed over the years (the first World Cup I really saw any of was 1982’s) that you generally can’t keep teams - or at least “traditional powers” - down for very long. 1966 - Italy and Brasil both crashed out in the first round. 1970 - each made it to the Final. 1970 - West Germany lost an EPIC semifinal to Italy (something the German team is VERY used to - losing to _Gli Azzurri_ in tournaments) then rebounded to win the title at home four years later. Argentina went out in humiliating fashion in 1974 then won the tournament at home 4 years later (albeit with some “help”). And so on…I, too, would expect France to make a better showing of themselves than they did in South Africa. How much better remains to be seen.
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### Author:  [@Asympotically\_fat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asympotically_fat)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2014, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/37 "2014-05-19T01:36:20Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#):
>
> Well, yes and no. I think going into the draw the USA (which is clearly better than Costa Rica and Australia) was probably \> 50% to make it out of its group. Put it in group C or group E (in place of whatever team came out of its same pool) and the round of 16 looks pretty likely.
>
> Similarly, Costa Rica’s chances of making it out of pool play went from low to very low, and Australia’s went from very low to pretty-much-nill.
I disagree, the USA never had a \>50% chance before the draw. Whilst I agree they are better than Costa Rica and Australia (neither of which they could’ve been drawn against though) that is saying very little as those are two of the absolute weakest teams in this tournament.
Groups C and E demonstrate that even with a favourable draw the USA’s chances of qualfying was not likely to be approaching \>50%. In these groups (minus the team that was in the same pot as USA) you have one team that is clearly much better than the USA (Columbia and France ), one team that I don’t think anyone would argue that don’t have the advantage over the USA (Ivory Coast and Switzerland) and one team which are fairly close to the USA, but which USA still lack a clear advantage over (Greece and Ecuador). That to me is easily below 50% chance of qualifying.
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### Author:  [@Asympotically\_fat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asympotically_fat)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2014, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/38 "2014-05-19T02:37:57Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#):
>
> I really think this is the WC where England doesn’t get out of group. Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani will have no fear of England for Uruguay and the Italians traditionally gel into a tough defensive unit for WCs. Also, the aforementioned Costa Ricans are no slouches; looking past them would be England’s mistake.
I think the danger of England not getting out of the group is clearly signifcant, however it must be seen in the context that the same can be said for any team in the group.
Cavani and Suarez for Uruguay is an intimidating forward line, the quality is variable throughout the rest of the team. Anyone picking them as clear favourites in this group probably hasn’t been following their performances since the last WC either.
Italy-England is always a close game and whilst it’s been said this isn’t a vintage England team, equally this isn’t a vintage Italy team either. The last time the two teams played was in a friendly in 2012 which England won 2-1, the last competitive game was 0-0 in the QF of the European Championships a few months earlier (Italy won on penalties). It’s a game that will probably end up as a draw, but which either team could nick.
Costa Rica might not be slouches, but they’re still one of the absolute weakest teams in the tournament and England, Italy and Uruguay know they have to beat them to get through the first round. They could end up deciding the group if they’re able to take points from the other teams though.
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### Author:  [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2014, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/39 "2014-05-19T02:41:02Z")
> [@Asympotically\_fat](#):
>
> I disagree, the USA never had a \>50% chance before the draw. /
Well, I was gonna quote Nate Silver at you, but looks like you were right to begin with:
“It’s a bad group for the USA but there were a lot of bad groups,” Silver told Bob Ley on ESPN2 after the draw. “We projected before the draw, looking at all these hundreds of scenarios, that they had about a 45% chance of advancing. Now [it’s] more like 39-40%.”
So they were a bit below 50%, and now are somewhat further below 50%, after a bad draw.
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### Author:  [@Asympotically\_fat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asympotically_fat)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2014, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brasil-2014/687840/40 "2014-05-19T03:26:41Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#):
>
> Well, I was gonna quote Nate Silver at you, but looks like you were right to begin with:
>
> “It’s a bad group for the USA but there were a lot of bad groups,” Silver told Bob Ley on ESPN2 after the draw. “We projected before the draw, looking at all these hundreds of scenarios, that they had about a 45% chance of advancing. Now [it’s] more like 39-40%.”
>
> So they were a bit below 50%, and now are somewhat further below 50%, after a bad draw.
The problem with international soccer is that there’s so many factors that are difficult to capture with statistics, but easy to observe. This is why no system yet has come close to simply having a decent amount of knowledge
Nate Silver’s system is interesting in that he appears to try and capture some of these factors and the results more closely match what is ‘common knowledge’. However looking at the system it suffers from the common flaw that the performance of a few teams can dramatically drag the other teams in their confederations up or down and still produces a fair number of “WTFs”. E.g. Ecuador 10th best team the World above Holland, Italy, Belgium and Portugal?
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