# Breakthrough vaccine? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 9, 2020, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163 "2020-11-09T18:34:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/81 "2020-11-17T13:59:48Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > So, is the vaccine somehow better than catching the real virus in terms of preparing the body’s response? Or does the 5% “failure” actually reflect on the proportion of people still susceptible to the virus after defeating it once? This blog, plus the comments, might give some clues up this alley. Or at least outline the difference between what we know, what we don’t know, and what we can’t know. [https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/16/modernas-vaccine-efficacy-readout](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/16/modernas-vaccine-efficacy-readout) ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/82 "2020-11-17T15:37:20Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > But, people who catch covid for reals, it seems have a non-negligible probability of reinfection according to studies now in several countries. Do you have a link to these studies? I realize a lot can change in a month, but as of a month ago there were only a handful of confirmed reinfections in the entire world. [https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection) ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/83 "2020-11-17T17:20:02Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > For some reason I can’t pinpoint I feel differently about quarantines. The vaccinated shouldn’t have to quarantine themselves when going to another state. Letting them go to bars and restaurants doesn’t feel right to me for some reason when there isn’t yet enough vaccine to go around. Whether it “feels right” or not, I’m wondering what the epidemiologists would recommend once a vaccine is available to the general public (after higher priority folks have received it). Suppose it is 95% effective. Once I’m vaccinated, is it safe for me (and everyone who has been vaccinated) to go out and do everything we used to do? 5% of those people would still be a lot of active cases. Will there need to be a period of vaccinations combined with quarantining and distancing to drive the number of cases down, and only then can we start returning to normal? If so, I can see that being a hard sell. “I got the shots, what do you mean I have to stay inside for another month? Fuck that, I’m going to spring break.” I suppose I’ll find out when the time comes. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/84 "2020-11-17T17:59:46Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > You get the vaccine and once you’re, for all intents and purposes, immune from the virus You can’t say that. I mean, if it were so, then “for all intents and purposes” COVID-19 doesn’t kill. ~Max ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/85 "2020-11-17T18:09:38Z")
> [@Max\_S](#): > > You can’t say that. > > I mean, if it were so, then “for all intents and purposes” COVID-19 doesn’t kill. I can say that, it was my hypothetical. If you want to be nitpicky about it, pretend like I said vaccinated or protected. The reason I phrased it that way is because you’re not considered protected until some time after your second shot, two weeks maybe? So it’s not that you get a shot and you’re good to go. It’s closer to 6 weeks after the initial shot. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/86 "2020-11-17T18:23:39Z")
I was looking at the 95% efficacy rate reported for the vaccine and comparing it to the 95%+ survival rate from the disease itself. You asked when it would be _safe_, and I don’t think you should write off either possibility. (Putting these together would mean the chance of you dying after being exposed to the virus, after the vaccine has taken effect, drops from \<5% to \<0.25%, which is significant, but I’m not sure it’s sound to make that calculation.) ~Max ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/87 "2020-11-17T18:27:38Z")
Good thinking. Nothing is ever “safe” or “unsafe”. Things are only “more safe” or “less safe”. The black and white categorical thinking is almost always wrong. But a 5% risk is one thing and a 5% _of_ 5% risk is something else again. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/88 "2020-11-17T18:29:53Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > 5% _of_ 5% risk is something else That’s the death statistic. I imagine the other symptoms are more prevalent. Presumably by _immune_ or _protected_ **Joey\_P** meant _safe from getting sick at all_. ~Max ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/89 "2020-11-17T18:33:44Z")
True. Though we can apply the same logic to getting sick at all by using a different percentage. The risk wasn’t 100% before and whatever it was, adding the vaccine to the mix drops the risk equation to ~5% of whatever it was. The only way anyone will ever have a truly zero risk of COVID = “totally safe from COVID” is to get a time machine and go back to 2018 or earlier. Maybe they could be on the first voyage to Mars and get away from it that that way. Other than that, the risk will always be non-zero. Now it’s just a matter of deciding how close to zero any one person insists on their personal risk being reduced to. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/90 "2020-11-17T20:12:20Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > For some reason I can’t pinpoint I feel differently about quarantines. The vaccinated shouldn’t have to quarantine themselves when going to another state. Letting them go to bars and restaurants doesn’t feel right to me for some reason when there isn’t yet enough vaccine to go around. I expect some countries to require vaccination certificates for international travel just like some countries do know with yellow fever. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/91 "2020-11-17T21:51:45Z")
One thing I should have added to the previous discussion is that none of the cases among the vaccinated group were described as “serious”, while 11 of the roughly 90 cases among the controls were. That’s rough on the controls, but they were no worse off than if they hadn’t participated. That’s one point. The other is that if, say, 80% of the people got vaccinated, then the R factor would be well below 1 and your chances of getting it would gradually fade away to negligible. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/92 "2020-11-18T06:38:11Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > I expect some countries to require vaccination certificates for international travel just like some countries do know with yellow fever. And how exactly is that enforced? I have a ‘yellow card’, which is basically, well, a yellow card with stamp on it for each of my vaccines, as well as a scrawled date and signature. While no one has ever asked to see it, even upon entry to countries that claim to require yellow fever vaccination, it doesn’t exactly seem foolproof if someone did want to take a look. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/93 "2020-11-18T12:42:12Z")
[more good news on the Pfizer vaccine](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54986208). With more data now in they are able to give more specific figures on efficacy and, as I suspected, their first estimate was at the lower end of the range. It also seems to give that level of protection across age ranges, sexes and ethnicities so that sounds really promising. They are filing with the regulators and hopefully that’ll be quick as there has been an incremental process ongoing already. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/94 "2020-11-18T15:45:29Z")
There’s another important study out today. It’s preprint, intermediate sample size (185), but from a reputable institution (La Jolla). It looks at cases beyond 6 months post-infection, and shows a strong SUSTAINED immune response, suggesting that immunity may typically last for years. This is obviously looking at people who were naturally infected rather than vaccinated, but it includes anti-Spike IgG and T-cells, i.e. the same antigen targeted by the two mRNA vaccines. Paper: > **[Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for greater than six months after...](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1)** > > Understanding immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 is critical for improving diagnostics and vaccines, and for assessing the likely future course of the pandemic. We analyzed multiple compartments of circulating immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 in 185 COVID-19... NY Times: > **[Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html?utm_source=Global%2BHealth%2BNOW%2BMain%2BList&utm_campaign=11c7ab1fae-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_11_17_05_11&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8d0d062dbd-11c7ab1fae-3097405)** > > Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/95 "2020-11-18T18:17:07Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > And how exactly is that enforced? The same way everything else is enforced: imperfectly. There is a rule that you must meet some requirement to do a thing. Have this vaccination to travel to that place, be 21 to drink alcohol, or whatever. For many people, the existence of the rule is enough to get them to comply. As the requirement becomes more onerous, and the thing more desirable, then more work will have to be done to stop cheaters—asking for ID to buy alcohol. It would be easy enough to have a law that puts an exception in HIPAA so that people who’ve completed their COVID-19 vaccination get their name in a database that can be queried. Is this perfect? No, obviously not, but it’s a place to start talking. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/96 "2020-11-18T18:34:09Z")
I have read some more. First, the cost seems moderate, under $50, although given what big pharma likes to mark things up, that could be much costlier. We’ll see. As noted above there is evidence of long-term immunity. Rather than continue the hijack above of this thread, I am going to start a new thread about enforcement of a vaccination requirement. Please don’t continue that here. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/97 "2020-11-18T19:27:04Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > So, is the vaccine somehow better than catching the real virus in terms of preparing the body’s response? Or does the 5% “failure” actually reflect on the proportion of people still susceptible to the virus after defeating it once? > > I know there’s probably no clear answer and it’s something to do with the gap between “prepping the immune system” and the complex reality, it’s just something I was thinking. > **[New Subject Offering: "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic"](https://biology.mit.edu/undergraduate/current-students/subject-offerings/covid-19-sars-cov-2-and-the-pandemic/)** > > In Fall 2020, all MIT students and the general public are welcome to join Professors Richard Young and Facundo Batista as they discuss the science of the pandemic during this new class. In Lecture 10: Kizzmekia Corbett, “Vaccines”, Corbett, who works in the NIH and was involved with the Moderna vaccine, showed a lot of data about it’s apparent efficacy in early tests. It produced immune response comparable to the average of the top quartile of natural immunity from a group of people who had gotten covid. So I think there’s an excellent chance that it does, indeed, do a better job of training your immune system than the wild virus does. It, the Pfizer vaccine, and most of the others I’ve seen all aim to train your immune system to recognize the spike protein. So they may all have comparable results. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/98 "2020-11-18T19:28:33Z")
Also, if you haven’t noticed, yet, I think this course has been terrific, and recommend it to anyone with time to audit it. The lectures vary a lot, and a few of them were really over my head, and just felt like listening to a recitation of alphabet soup. But a lot of them have been very accessible, and quite interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/99 "2020-11-18T20:32:22Z")
BTW, apparently we have Dolly Parton to thank, in part, for the development of the Moderna vaccine. As told in [this Washington Post story](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/18/dolly-parton-moderna-vaccine-abumrad-covid/) she sought treatment at Vanderbilt in 2013 after a car accident. There she had conversations with Naji Abumrad, a surgeon there. And then in April 2020, she donated a million dollars for COVID research, in honor of Dr Abumrad. (BTW, the surgeon’s son is Jad Abumrad, who hosts Radiolab on public radio.) So yet another reason why Dolly Parton is a very cool person. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163/100 "2020-11-18T20:39:09Z")
Dolly donates a ton of time and money, especially in and around Tennessee. I saw a meme just this morning saying that Dolly could be a billionaire. She’s a millionaire because she donates so much money. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/breakthrough-vaccine/925163.md?page=6)