Brexit chaos at the ports: why is this a problem now, but was not a problem before the EU?

[Nava]

@Northern_Piper

Quartz, there certainly is evidence of the effect of a hard border. Just go to the Windsor-Detroit border crossing between Canada and the US, or the Peace Bridge at Buffalo. Those are choke points similar to the Chunnel, where all the road traffic has to cross at the same point. .

Or look at what happened when Irún and Le Perthus were the only direct border-crossing points between France and Spain… oh wait, they still are, but now customs inspections are held in random points which are quite far from the border. I got one a few weeks back: in a highway toll point closer to Lyon than to the line, a Gendarme asked if I was carrying anything for trade, I said “no sir”, he said “have a nice day ma’am” and that was it. Completely different from good old “every car to the side, get car and people’s papers ready and open the trunk” we used to have.

[Ramira]

@Nava

Or look at what happened when Irún and Le Perthus were the only direct border-crossing points between France and Spain… oh wait, they still are, but now customs inspections are held in random points which are quite far from the border. I got one a few weeks back: in a highway toll point closer to Lyon than to the line, a Gendarme asked if I was carrying anything for trade, I said “no sir”, he said “have a nice day ma’am” and that was it. Completely different from good old “every car to the side, get car and people’s papers ready and open the trunk” we used to have.

It is useful to note those are not the customs inspections in the proper sense, but the contrabande controles (thus the Gendarmie and la Douane).

[psychonaut]

@chappachula

Back in , say, 1990 a typical day’s work could involve driving across 4 countries, crossing borders using 4 different currencies. There was no internet, computers were rare, and I assume that much of the customs and administration was done by writing documents by hand.

Your assumptions aren’t entirely correct. There was indeed Internet in 1990, and much of the customs system had already been computerized by the 1970s and 1980s (using systems such as France’s SOFI and the UN’s ASYCUDA). There was doubtless paperwork involved back then, though that’s still true even today.

[Northern_Piper]

@Ramira

The Sky News summary for the reference, including the WTO rules.

Ramira, I read that article and everyone it quotes is a member of the elites of government, business and academics.

Clearly, since it doesn’t quote from real people going about their business on the High Street, it can be disregarded.

[bob_2]

All goods coming in will be in sealed trucks/containers. At the port, seals will be checked and the trucks sent to distribution depots where they are checked again and then opened if HMRC think it necessary. These might be customs yards for general cargoes, but large importers like supermarkets will probably do their own

The problem might be for goods going out, as it will be French or Belgian customs who will control the flow and the French have their own problems ATM.

One hopes and assumes that no one will want to obstruct the flow of trade any more than they have to. General confusion and incompetence will be the main problem.

[Malden_Capell]

@Northern_Piper

Ramira, I read that article and everyone it quotes is a member of the elites of government, business and academics.

Clearly, since it doesn’t quote from real people going about their business on the High Street, it can be disregarded.

Yeah, what do businesses know about infrastructure, haulage, trading and supply lines? Only authentic people like my mates down the pub know about that stuff!
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[Quartz]

@Malden_Capell

But I doubt you’ll bother, you’ll likely just skulk off like every other time you’re presented with evidence.

Really? You misrepresented me in the other thread and I saw no point in continuing the argument. I’d said my piece and had nothing further to add. And I see no point in arguing with an absolutist who cannot appreciate a nuanced opinion.

[Quartz]

@Ramira

there is ample private sector evidence that it is not hyping as the companies with direct economic interest are observed by indirect statistics - the inventory delivery reports and other statistics not at all generated for the purposes of “elites” as some past pretensions or sneering EU commissars patting on the head. showsa record capital deployment to stockpiling in inventories, which is of course an immediate deadweight loss. There are in fact already the evidence in the economic statistics of anticipatory impacts for the logistics.

Sorry, but those are paywalled for me.

it is data generated by the elites.

Ah well, it appears you’re not arguing in good faith.

[Ramira]

@Quartz

Really? You misrepresented me in the other threadand I saw no point in continuing the argument.

It appears the word “misrepresented” means here “showed in quotes where my very own cites contradicted my claims about the results of negotiaitons obtained, about what certain politicians said versus reacted to, etc.” after this falling into silence…

And I see no point in arguing with an absolutist who cannot appreciate a nuanced opinion.

the ‘nuanced’ opinion that is "Brexit Questioning’ by JAQ and keeps pretending the data showing the impact are not there?

@Quartz

Sorry, but those are paywalled for me.

ah yes, it is so extremely difficult for the Brexit Questioning poster to identify the news around the record stockpiling of the inventories, and

Bloomberg from that Google Search

In December, the U.K. government stepped up preparations for a no-deal withdrawal, including asking pharmaceutical companies and supermarkets to stockpile drugs and food, and putting 3,500 troops on standby.

Companies from drugmaker AstraZeneca Plc to cigarette producer Imperial Brands Plc have said they would build inventories ahead of Britain’s exit. Retailers, meanwhile, are urging suppliers to ramp up production on concern their shelves will be depleted if there’s no deal.

…

For manufacturers, increases in stock holdings and a strong inflow of new orders reflected preparations from both factories and their clients, Markit said. Its Purchasing Managers Index for the industry rose more than forecast to a six-month high in December.

Even with the pick up, the overall picture in the sector remains weak. The average reading for the final three months of the year was the lowest since the third quarter of 2016. Manufacturers’ confidence levels are only slightly above the 27-month low in November, with firms citing Brexit and exchange-rate uncertainty as a weight on the outlook.

Any positive economic impact from the inventory accumulation is likely to be short-lived, according to Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Overall growth will likely be below trend in the fourth and first quarters, he said.

Or the Irish Times

UK economic conditions ‘worryingly subdued’ as manufacturers stockpile ahead of no-deal Brexit

UK manufacturers are stockpiling goods at near record rates in preparation for a no-deal Brexit

02 January, 2019 15:18
THE UK economy ended 2018 stuck in a “weak holding pattern”, with uncertainty over Brexit hitting sales and recruitment, according to a new report.

Problems hiring staff are at near-record highs, a survey of 6,000 firms suggested.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said its study indicated that growth in the economy had “stagnated.”

…

Suren Thiru, the BCC’s head of economics added: “Our latest survey suggests that UK economic conditions were worryingly subdued in the final quarter of 2018, with a number of key indicators continuing to weaken under the weight of persistent Brexit uncertainty and rising cost pressures.”

Meanwhile UK manufacturers are stockpiling goods at near record rates in preparation for a calamitous no-deal Brexit.

The Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed a reading of 54.2 last month, higher than the 53.6 recorded in November, and a six-month high.

…

Buying volumes increased as companies implemented plans to reduce supply-chain disruption if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal.

As a result, inventories rose at the fourth-fastest rate in the survey’s 27-year history and a rise in finished goods stocks in December was the second-strongest since the survey began in 1992.

…

Of course final statistics take time for the reporting and the compilation.

Or this google search on UK slow downyou can access similar informatoin to the Financial Times article.

Ah well, it appears you’re not arguing in good faith.

there is no argument, there is the data and the evidence. It is the GQ. But since some audiences are “elite data averse” bon… apparently data

@Malden_Capell

Yeah, what do businesses know about infrastructure, haulage, trading and supply lines? Only authentic people like my mates down the pub know about that stuff!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Of course, the Pub analysis, it has brought the world Trump and the Brexit. The terrible elites, betraying the good instincts of the local corner pub or the brasserie and its insights.

[casdave]

There is so much alarm mongering, the fact is that even if there is no deal, there WILL be a two year ‘tapering off’ period which has already been agreed.

In other words it will not be a jump into a chasm at all, and I am willing to bet that that tapering off deal will last somewhat longer.

The fear mongers claim that we will hit the wall, its bollocks - on the other hand we will also not leave the EU in one go as the Brexiteers seem to believe. There will be a long period of adjustment, any deal (if it happens) will only be a first stage, Brexit in its fullest will take a long time to implement - when has the EU ever done anything quickly?

It took us over 40 years to get to where we are, it’ll take a lot more than a minute hand crossing a mark on a clock to fully exit - if at all, because there will be elections where Brexit is likely to be a major issue.

Brexit will be hard to achieve due to the many saboteurs and self interested parties. We have a long long way to go.

[Ramira]

@casdave

There is so much alarm mongering, the fact is that even if there is no deal, there WILL be a two year ‘tapering off’ period which has already been agreed.

What!!!? Are you ill? No Deal is no deal. - you are taking about an agreement for the sake of God. It means that no agreement with the EU has been met. I do not understand how the English have such trouble understanding law.

A transition period is a deal, and the UK has to agree to certain measures. Which some how you over there are finding impossible to agree on between yourselves and have much magical thinking (like thinking you have two more years?? Oh mon dieu)

Brexit will be hard to achieve due to the many saboteurs and self interested parties. We have a long long way to go.

Ah yes, the Sabotage of the hard reality of the real world economics.

In any case it is a great lesson of why the corner pub is not a place to let drive the decisions of state.

[Northern_Piper]

casdave, please provide a link to this two year transition agreement you’re talking about? I’ve never seen any other mention of it. The only one I’m aware of is the Withdrawal Agreement currently pending in Parliament, which looks likely to be defeated.

So, cite to the transition agreement, please.

Second, the idea that things won’t change at midnight on March 29 - actually, that’s exactly what will happen, unless there is a deal in place. The UK will go from being a full member of the EU (with guaranteed access to the EU markets, no tariff barriers, and free flow of goods, services and people) to being a complete non-member, governed by same WTO rules as any other non-member, like China (no free access to the EU markets, subject to EU tariffs, and no free flow of goods, services and people).

That’s what the two-year deadline in Article 50 is about: the U.K. had two years to negotiate the transition agreement. PM May has done so. If the U.K. Parliament does not approve it, then at midnight on March 29 Britain is fully out of the EU.

[Filbert]

The deal currently being negotiated, the one looking increasingly like no deal, IS THE TRANSITION AGREEMENT. The transition isn’t a default that’s just going to happen.
No deal’s the default, and that means no transition period.

The default means every agreement stops at midnight on 29th March.

Negotiations on a post transition deal can’t even start until after the UK has left the EU.

[dropzone]

@Malden_Capell

The problem is less a comment on the pre-EEC border regime in the UK, but that in the event of no-deal, all of Britain’s trade deals are nullified overnight.

And how many people did it take to do this? We can do it with one. U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

@Ramira

Of course, the Pub analysis, it has brought the world Trump and the Brexit. The terrible elites, betraying the good instincts of the local corner pub or the brasserie and its insights.

Um, whoosh?

[Ramira]

@dropzone

Um, whoosh?

What whoosh? Malden and I agree entirely on the subject. I merely added comment to his sarcasm.

[Ramira]

@Filbert

The deal currently being negotiated, the one looking increasingly like no deal, IS THE TRANSITION AGREEMENT. The transition isn’t a default that’s just going to happen.
No deal’s the default, and that means no transition period.

The default means every agreement stops at midnight on 29th March.

Negotiations on a post transition deal can’t even start until after the UK has left the EU.

It is things like this that confirms the idea that holding a referendum on the subjects like this is a very bad idea, unless some already well defined by the technical staff options are presented.

The probability a great portion of the british electorate does not actually understand the legal options is a very frightening thing for the economic decisions. The probability of a chaotic exit seems to me very high

[Malden_Capell]

@Quartz

Really? You misrepresented me in the other thread and I saw no point in continuing the argument. I’d said my piece and had nothing further to add. And I see no point in arguing with an absolutist who cannot appreciate a nuanced opinion.

You accuse me of misinterpretation but never explained where. You just gave up. I’m not absolutist, either - show me a single link that show preparations to mitigate No Deal are satisfying the logistics handlers on the ground, and I’ll run off with my tail between my legs instead for a change.

Simply mouthing off that it’s scaremongering because you simply dislike the message (that’s not interpretation, that’s literally all you’ve done) isn’t an argument. It’s ostrichism.

I look forward to your reply to Ramira’s post.
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[Northern_Piper]

Quartz, in response to your post #8 asserting that there’s “no evidence” that a hard Brexit will not have any effect, at post #12 I provided the example of the hard border between Canada and the US. You’ve not commented on that, nor how those sorts of slowdowns at the Chunnel would have any bad economic effects. Still waiting for your comments as to why that’s not evidence of how hard borders work.

At post #20, Ramira provided a link to SkyNews summary of the issues. It’s not behind a paywall. Could you explain why none of that is “evidence” of the serious effects of a hard Brexit? Where are all those numerous experts wrong?

I’m genuinely curious what your response is.

[PastTense]

@casdave

There is so much alarm mongering, the fact is that even if there is no deal, there WILL be a two year ‘tapering off’ period which has already been agreed.

No. This 'tapering off period" is part of the withdrawal agreement which has been agreed to between the UK and EU--but which must be ratified by the UK Parliament and the EU Parliament. Right now virtually no one thinks it will be ratified by the UK Parliament.

Northern Piper:

there’s “no evidence” that a hard Brexit will not have any effect

You do realize this phrase is basically a double negative?

[Malden_Capell]

@Northern_Piper

Quartz, in response to your post #8 asserting that there’s “no evidence” that a hard Brexit will not have any effect, at post #12 I provided the example of the hard border between Canada and the US. You’ve not commented on that, nor how those sorts of slowdowns at the Chunnel would have any bad economic effects. Still waiting for your comments as to why that’s not evidence of how hard borders work.

At post #20, Ramira provided a link to SkyNews summary of the issues. It’s not behind a paywall. Could you explain why none of that is “evidence” of the serious effects of a hard Brexit? Where are all those numerous experts wrong?

I’m genuinely curious what your response is.

That we’re all big meanies for using facts and evidence, and we should respect his opinion by letting him indulge his denials. Otherwise we’re arrogant and our opinions can be safely ignored.

It’s all attacking the messenger to avoid the message.