# Brexit - general discussion thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424 "2018-11-12T20:29:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/181 "2018-11-19T18:50:09Z")
Is there a deadline for letters to the Committee? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/182 "2018-11-19T19:20:26Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Is there a deadline for letters to the Committee? It’s an open-ended threshold, currently set at 48 letters. Apparently once the threshold is reached the Chair of the 1922 will contact all the letter writers to confirm their intentions - after all some of the letters could be quite old. From the outside it seems quite a murky process but the Conservative Party, like all political parties in the UK, operates on private club rules, so they can do whatever they want really. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/183 "2018-11-19T23:09:23Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > OK, have we got to the point where we can call the ERG a pathetic bunch of posturing lily-livered shitebags? Pretty much. But then you could say the same about most of the rest of the members of the House of Commons. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/184 "2018-11-20T02:45:57Z")
**UDS** , thank you for those detailed posts on the Irish border issue. Very helpful in understanding the concerns. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/185 "2018-11-20T07:10:51Z")
The reason May will continue in power is simply that there’s no clear candidate to replace her. Boris Johnson? Jacob Rees-Mogg? Michael Gove? David Davis? Andrea Leadsom? Amber Rudd? None of them can muster more than a handful of supporters among Tory MPs. There is no general feeling that any of them could do a better job than May. And any change of leadership at this stage would itself be a major problem. So they’ll stick to the principle _Always keep a-hold of Nurse For fear of finding something worse._ ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/186 "2018-11-20T08:48:20Z")
Do we expect Parliament to acceot the deal, given the CBI seems to have endorsed it? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/187 "2018-11-20T09:23:01Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Do we expect Parliament to acceot the deal, given the CBI seems to have endorsed it? Time will tell. But the concerns of industry seem to carry little weight with the ultra-brexiters, so I don’t think the CBI endorsement (which was not in the least surprising) will be decisive. A distinct possibility is that Parliament will reject the deal at the first time of asking, but early in the new year, after experiencing panic in the financial markets and economic stresses caused by businesses activating no-deal contingency plans, Parliament will accept it subject to a few cosmetic tweaks so that honour can be satisfied. That, for what it’s worth, is my sense of the most likely course. Or, at least, slightly more likely than either a general election, a further referendum or a crash-out Brexit. The evident inability of the ERG to launch its putsch against May stiffens my sense a little; they are a noisy but ineffective shower. But since my sense was also that the 2016 Brexit referendum would be lost and Clinton would be elected, you might not want to place too much reliance on it. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/188 "2018-11-20T12:21:57Z")
Spain is threatening to veto the Brexit deal over Gibraltar. From the [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46267684): > [@](#): > > Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said Spain will reject the draft Brexit withdrawal deal without a clarification of the text on future talks on the status of Gibraltar. > … > **“As things stand today if there are no changes regarding Gibraltar, Spain will vote no on Brexit,” said Mr Sánchez.** Spain is not the only EU country unhappy with the deal. From the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/19/brexit-eu-ministers-prepare-to-end-45-years-of-difficult-marriage) yesterday: > [@](#): > > Member states are also not happy that the UK has been given a customs union in the withdrawal agreement without strict enough conditions to ensure the European economy cannot be undercut. > > France is among those that also want a guarantee of a satisfactory agreement for European fishermen who work in British waters possibly in the political declaration, having not achieved that goal in the withdrawal agreement. > > The EU is looking at publishing a series of side-declarations to the main political declaration in an attempt to set out its stall on the most contentious areas, in a move that could thwart May’s plans to sell her the package to MPs at home. > > France, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany, also want tough “level playing field” commitments from the UK, such as dynamic alignment with the EU’s climate change and environment directives. So it’s not a done deal from the EU side. There is still plenty of negotiating to be done - all of which will make it more difficult to get it through the UK Parliament. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/189 "2018-11-20T12:29:29Z")
For those interested, there’s a [Brexit quiz](https://brexitquiz.com/) to see which deal you would prefer. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/190 "2018-11-20T12:55:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Pretty much. But then you could say the same about most of the rest of the members of the House of Commons. As and when they make a complete spectacle of themselves, I likely will. But it’s generalising like that has the effect of letting the ERG off the hook for the specific, recent, much-publicised clown show they’ve demanded we pay attention to for the last week. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/191 "2018-11-20T13:10:39Z")
This is still just the Withdrawal Agreement. I think both sides know that the difficult horsetrading will come when negotiating the UK-EU trade deal that is intended to replace the current EU trading arrangements. There is scant mention of this in the WA. That will take years and you can expect all kinds of objections and delays from member states with some gripe will have their say. The UK will be paying into the EU for the duration of the WA. No WA would means a sudden budget crisis for the EU to deal with that would have far more effect than these objections. > **[The UK is one of the biggest contributors to the EU budget - Full Fact](https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/)** > > The UK has been the third or fourth largest contributing country to the EU budget in recent years, and of the 28 member states is one of 10 to contribute more than it gets back in receipts. If the EU could not authorise the WA or it does not get through the UK parliament it would all have to start again with a lot of frustration. It looks a lot more uncertain on the UK side. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/192 "2018-11-20T15:03:02Z")
Here’s NPR on May and her Brexit woes: [Brexit Negotiations Provide A Great Challenge To May's Leadership : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2018/11/19/669145211/brexit-negotiations-provide-a-great-challenge-to-mays-leadership) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/193 "2018-11-20T18:07:44Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > As and when they make a complete spectacle of themselves, I likely will. Oh, I’m not disagreeing with you. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/194 "2018-11-20T19:30:02Z")
According to this article in the Express, not only has the Committee not received the necessary 48 letters, the chair has hinted that he’s not received letters from some of the MPs who have been hinting in the press that they’ve sent in a letter. So some hon. Members appear to be … prevaricating … ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/195 "2018-11-20T21:28:06Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > According to this article in the Express… Linky? ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/196 "2018-11-20T23:34:56Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > For those interested, there’s a [Brexit quiz](https://brexitquiz.com/) to see which deal you would prefer. I’m American, but took it out of curiosity. I got an 86% match for Remain, 77% for Norway, 48% for the current deal, 38% for Canada Plus, and 22% for No Deal. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2018, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/197 "2018-11-20T23:41:35Z")
I also took the survey, and while I can’t remember the exact numbers, my highest match was for the Norway Plan. (Also an American.) ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/198 "2018-11-21T01:05:15Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Spain is threatening to veto the Brexit deal over Gibraltar… Spain doesn’t have a veto over the Withdrawal Agreement now being discussed. They’ve been promised (by the EU) a veto over the application to Gibraltar of the future relationship agreement (talks about which have barely commenced). This is a political commitment by the EU, not an entrenched legal right. Their current position is that they’d like to see this written into the withdrawal agreement, which would (a) turn it into a legally enforceable right, and (b) make it binding on the UK as well as on the EU. If they don’t get their way on this (and they probably won’t) they are threatening to vote against the Withdrawal Agreement. But that won’t scupper it; on the EU side, the Withdrawal Agreement needs approval by a qualified majority of the member states; it doesn’t need unanimous agreement. The Spaniards know this, which is why voting against the WA allows them to register the strength of their concern and put down a marker for the future relationship discussions, but without derailing the entire process at this point. Legally, only one country can torpedo the Withdrawal Agreement on its own: the UK. Politically, one other country can do so: Ireland. Unlike the Spanish, the Irish have been promised a veto over the Withdrawal Agreement of it fails to contain terms which will prevent a hard border in Ireland. It’s unlikely that the Irish will have to deploy the veto, however, since the EU negotiations have been firm all along that they won’t agree terms of any draft Withdrawal Agreement that don’t include this. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/199 "2018-11-21T01:19:43Z")
Here’s the link re letters to Committee of 1922 > **[Tory rebels coup flounders: 48 letters needed to oust May NOT received](https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1046994/theresa-may-leadership-no-confidence-vote-tory-committee-1922-committee-brexit-news)** > > THE chairman of the Conservative Party’s powerful 1922 Committee – which represents its backbench MPs – has confirmed he has NOT received the 48 letters needed to trigger a leadership contest which could see Theresa May ousted as Prime Minister. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/200 "2018-11-21T02:17:48Z")
American: I got 83% no deal, 78% Canada Plus, 65% Government’s Deal, 30% Norway Deal, and 19% Remain. Some of those questions amazed me. Why wouldn’t a sovereign country like the UK want absolute authority to conduct activities within their own borders and not pay for EU domination? Why can’t the EU simply be a free trade zone without all of the extra bureaucracy? The U.S. would vote such a thing down 90-10. Sorry for the hijack. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424.md?page=11)