# Brexit - general discussion thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [November 12, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424 "2018-11-12T20:29:58Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/21 "2018-11-13T10:13:26Z")

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> [@AK84](#):
>
> Does anyone else get the feeling the whole thing i.e the referendum, was not thought through?

At this point, to laugh or to cry. Any suggestions?

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**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/22 "2018-11-13T13:44:51Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> Either May is playing a blinder or she’s making an almighty cock-up and just praying that something comes along to rescue her. Personally I tend to the latter. She took a year to invoke Article 50, for example, which gave Remainers enough time to mount a legal challenge and cause serious damage to the process.

Oh, please.  
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/23 "2018-11-13T15:22:30Z")

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> [@SanVito](#):
>
> At this point, to laugh or to cry. Any suggestions?

I think crying is probably the more appropriate option.

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**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/24 "2018-11-13T16:07:34Z")

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> [@filmstar-en](#):
>
> Whereas the borders between the EU and non-EU states required customs and police checks. Put that in place between Ireland and Northern Ireland and the worry is that they will become the target for terrorist attack from Irish Republican groups. Very easy for that to escalate the Troubles in Northern Ireland to return. The EU says Northern Ireland can stay in the EU customs union and there can be border with the rest of the UK along the Irish Sea. That is unacceptable to the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland and May is dependent on their votes in Parliament.

Those 2 options comport either a risk of some violence or waiting until a coalition partner isn’t needed. They’re definitely not pleasant options but neither is impossible.

Sparking up violence in Ireland is bad but it’s a risk, not a certainty, of something the UK and Ireland have already been through.

Once a government gets a majority, putting Northern Ireland in limbo will become an option. Grabbing and insisting on retaining a chunk of the neighboring island was always going to be awkward.  
Technology enabling a frictionless border; It still requires putting a customs border someplace which I gather is the sticking point. Also, if frictionless customs were possible, wouldn’t we see some version of it somewhere?

It’s worrying because it means that May is either deluded or lying knowing perfectly well that her lie is bound to blow up at some point: “Bullshit them long enough so we don’t have to deal with unpleasant choices right now” is how I gather Leave leaders behaved.  
Are there any stats on the percentage of people who voted Leave vs Remain in the South of England vs the North? A part of me would like for the UK to become disunited with Scotland getting its freeedom, the South remaining in the EU and the North leaving so it can freely plunge into a Norsefire. I don’t know about the elves, they’re at the same latitude as much of the Nort’ but I think they’d like to remain in the EU.

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/25 "2018-11-13T16:17:27Z")

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> [@SanVito](#):
>
> At this point, to laugh or to cry. Any suggestions?

Try a whimper. ☹

If you have a Tory MP, you could try writing to them to ask them to depose her, as I did.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/26 "2018-11-13T16:52:02Z")

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> [@AK84](#):
>
> To be fair to the Leavers, no one anticipated that Brexit would revive the Irish question.

That’s not being fair. That’s giving a pass to willful ignorance.

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**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/27 "2018-11-13T17:03:21Z")

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> [@Quartz](#):
>
> Try a whimper. ☹
> 
> If you have a Tory MP, you could try writing to them to ask them to depose her, as I did.

Thing is, I don’t blame May, she’s inherited this shit show, it was always going to be a right royal mess. It’s Cameron I hold to blame for this catastrophe.

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**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/28 "2018-11-13T17:27:04Z")

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I do blame May. She didn’t have to trigger Article 50 without a plan, and she didn’t have to wrongly interpret the referendum result as a mandate to leave the Customs Union and Single Market. Life would be a lot easier if she’d try to eke out a reasonable middle way, as the result warranted.  
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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**Author:** ![SanVito](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sanvito/32/2805_2.png) [@SanVito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SanVito)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/29 "2018-11-13T17:39:09Z")

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BREAKING NEWS - brexit ‘divorce’ deal agreed by UK/EU negotiators, UK cabinet to assess tomorrow (according to BBC).

Deep breaths everyone.

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**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/30 "2018-11-13T17:50:59Z")

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Here you go: [Brexit: UK and EU 'agree text' of draft withdrawal agreement - BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46188790)

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/31 "2018-11-13T18:04:36Z")

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How many more ministers are going to resign because they find this deal unacceptable?

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**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/32 "2018-11-13T18:05:59Z")

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> [@SanVito](#):
>
> BREAKING NEWS - brexit ‘divorce’ deal agreed by UK/EU negotiators, UK cabinet to assess tomorrow (according to BBC).
> 
> Deep breaths everyone.

Rees-Mogg is currently hyper-ventilating about the UK becoming a “slave state” :rolleyes:

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**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/33 "2018-11-13T18:06:03Z")

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Let’s see it before passing judgement.

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**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/34 "2018-11-13T18:34:13Z")

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It’s not only the Cabinet and Parliament that have to sign off on it. It’s also Germany and France and Ireland and…

Chances that everyone will accept it… minimal.

Corbyn has already said “this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country”.

The agreement is 400+ pages of dense legalese. Ministers can flip through it at no. 10, but not take it home. They have to vote to accept it tomorrow, or else resign - so definitely an informed decision with no pressure. 😃

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**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/35 "2018-11-13T19:06:11Z")

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As expected Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are already against it, they are still under a delusional belief that the UK has more power than it does.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/36 "2018-11-13T20:12:06Z")

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> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> It’s not only the Cabinet and Parliament that have to sign off on it. It’s also Germany and France and Ireland and…

No, while you need substantial support from the EU governments you are not in the situation where one EU country can veto the deal. And Barnier has been in very close contact from the EU governments.

> [@](#):
>
> The conclusion of the withdrawal agreement requires the consent of the European Parliament, by simple majority of voting MEPs.
> 
> Following the consent of the European Parliament, the Council concludes the withdrawal agreement on behalf of the EU by a so-called super-qualified majority vote. Article 238(3)b TFEU defines the super-qualified majority “as at least 72 % of the members of the Council representing the participating Member States, comprising at least 65 % of the population of these States”. This means that effectively 20 out of the 27 Member States have to vote in support of the withdrawal agreement and that the total population of these 20 Member States can be no less than roughly 280 million people.

> **[Global Law Firm | DLA Piper](https://www.dlapiper.com/en-us)**
>
> DLA Piper is a global law firm with lawyers in 40+ countries, providing legal solutions to businesses worldwide. Helping clients succeed every day.

The big problem is with the British Parliament. Later when the Final agreement comes up you are going to need universal EU agreement–and that will probably be very difficult to get.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/37 "2018-11-13T20:16:10Z")

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It seems to me that the Brexit vote was one of two now-regretted votes made in 2016. The other was in the US.

And I wonder what’s going to happen to all of the expensive real estate in London that’s now occupied by bankers when the EU banking center moves onto Dublin or Paris or where-ever? And whatever happened to the claim that leaving the EU would free up 350 million pounds a week that could instead be spent on the NHS?

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**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/38 "2018-11-13T22:14:27Z")

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> [@Baron\_Greenback](#):
>
> Rees-Mogg is currently hyper-ventilating about the UK becoming a “slave state” :rolleyes:

Yes, they’re claiming the UK loses the sovereignty that they claimed the UK didn’t already have. How anyone still sticks up for Brexit is baffling.  
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\
**Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/39 "2018-11-14T00:36:45Z")

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My subconscious just told me something my conscious didn’t want me to admit: upon seeing the news of the possible compromise my heart sank as an American, because it is neither the economy-boosting remain result that would be better overall for the world economy, nor the insular isolationist result that, while potentially disastrous, might still result in a closer U.S.-British relationship out of necessity. On the plus side,

> [@](#):
>
> And I wonder what’s going to happen to all of the expensive real estate in London that’s now occupied by bankers when the EU banking center moves onto Dublin or Paris or where-ever?

Maybe it will engender a pause in the construction of glass-paned eyesores in London.

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**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\
**Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/40 "2018-11-14T00:54:26Z")

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> [@GreenWyvern](#):
>
> It’s not only the Cabinet and Parliament that have to sign off on it. It’s also Germany and France and Ireland and…
> 
> Chances that everyone will accept it… minimal.

> [@PastTense](#):
>
> No, while you need substantial support from the EU governments you are not in the situation where one EU country can veto the deal. And Barnier has been in very close contact from the EU governments.

PastTense is correct. But any Withdrawal Agreement does need to be ratified by the European Parliament. And, while that is not so hairy a prospect as getting it ratified by the Westminster Parliament, it’s not a shoe-in.

But the likelihood is that it goes to Westminster first. If Westminster says “no”, then approval by the EP is moot, and presumably they will not consider or vote on the already-rejected agreement.

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