# Brexit - general discussion thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424 "2018-11-12T20:29:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2018, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/401 "2018-12-04T20:09:53Z")
I think this is what is you say in England as “going all pear shaped”? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2018, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/402 "2018-12-04T20:12:35Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > I think this is what is you say in England as “going all pear shaped”? Exactly so 😃 ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/403 "2018-12-05T03:56:28Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > I’ve made this case before and it still stands. Imagine that, overnight, an unaffiliated, liberal, prosperous, advanced western nation with the world’s fifth biggest economy and a market of over 60 million wealthy people was towed to a position 20 miles off the coast of Europe. The E.U. would trip over itself to strike deals with such a nation and even if a no-deal brexit happens, after a suitable period of navel-gazing, that’s exactly what both sides would do.) Your hypothetical has to yield to reality. There already _is_ a liberal, prosperous, advanced western nation with the world’s fifth biggest economy and a market of over 60 million wealthy people 20 miles off the coast of Europe. Despite the compelling interest to which you point, they have voted to end the deep, comprehensive, frictionless trade arrangment they enjoy with Europe, and to erect various barriers to trade - all that remains to be determined is exactly how signficant those barriers will be. They are not, at the moment, falling over themselves to strike deals with the EU; far from it, they are repudiating the deal they already have. The EU is keen to strike a new deal with them, and has suggested numerous models but, so far, the UK has rejected them all. The reason is obvious; there is no consensus in the UK on what deal they should have with the EU, and no particular model of deal enjoys majority support. Clearly, it’s not the EU’s lack of appetite for a deal that’s the problem here. If there’s a no-deal Brexit, yes, the EU will still want to strike a deal with the UK. But there is no reason to suppose that their priorites and objectives in striking such a deal will be any different from what they are now, while they are trying to strike a deal before the no-deal Brexit. So, after what your refer to as a period of navel-gazing, the EU will likely still be saying what it is saying now; “We expect you to settle your financial liabilities to us; the deal needs to address this. We expect you make arrangements which will be effective to honour your guarantee of no hard border in Ireland; these arrangements should form part of the deal. We expect you to address the rights of EU citizens in the UK. Etc, etc.” No-deal Brexit doesn’t really change the fundamental interests and objectives of either party. It does tilt the balance of power (still more) in the EU’s favour, though, so as a tactic for persuading the EU to yield on points which, so far, they have not been prepared to yield on it is not well-judged. If anything, it seems more likely to have the opposite effect; the UK will have a powerful incentive to commit to one of the models of deal that the EU is offering. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/404 "2018-12-05T05:26:26Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > I think this is what is you say in England as “going all pear shaped”? > [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Exactly so 😃 Indeed. [British MPs censure PM May for failing to publish legal advice on Brexit](https://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-british-mps-censure-pm-may-for-failing-to-publish-legal-advice-on-brexit-2692439) > [@](#): > > The House of Commons voted 311-293 to censure the government for failing to publish its full legal advice about the divorce deal May struck last month with the European Union.The outcome forced May’s team to promise to release the full tome ahead of next Tuesday’s vote on the contentious Brexit agreement.“This house has now spoken and it’s of huge constitutional and political signficance,” said opposition Labour Party member Keir Starmer.The rebuke underscores the struggles May faces as she tries to keep Britain from crashing out of the world’s largest single market in March without any firm trade arrangements. > > The government suffered another blow just one hour later when parliament also voted in favour of an amendment that will give greater decision-making powers to MPs if, as expected, May’s deal is voted down next week ---
**Author:** ![Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/22d042/32.png) [@Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/405 "2018-12-05T09:25:07Z")
Was that the turning point? It seems to me that the chances of a Brexit deal are less than they were, ditto the chances of a Brexit no-deal. When all the alternatives are eliminated, what remains is, er, Remain? Parliament is not rolling over, with the majority seeming to be opposed to both a deal and no-deal. The advocate general’s opinion makes the process of remaining easier. The government’s legal advice is sure to contain some zingers, which among other things will strengthen the EU’s negotiating position if anyone tries to improve on the draft. As well as emphasising how unattractive Brexit really is. The Brexiteers are being loud and obnoxious, but everything they do seems to be counterproductive for their dreams? Theresa May is doggedly pursuing Brexit, as well as humanly possible, which will ultimately take a lot of the sting out of the inevitable howling about a ‘stab in the back’. (Choice of metaphor deliberate, we face a very ugly future whatever happens). Conversely, the chaos has been turned up to eleven, so the risk of crashing out without a deal certainly hasn’t gone away. I can also see the moral and intellectual lightweights who represent us opting for a second referendum as the easy way out. And the vote then being to exit without a deal. Good times. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/406 "2018-12-05T09:33:06Z")
> [@](#): > > Despite the compelling interest to which you point, they have voted to end the deep, comprehensive, frictionless trade arrangment they enjoy with Europe, and to erect various barriers to trade Actually, it is the EU that is choosing to put barriers up. The UK government is on record as saying they want to maintain those systems. It is the EU who don’t want to allow it. > [@UDS](#): > > If there’s a no-deal Brexit, yes, the EU will still want to strike a deal with the UK. But there is no reason to suppose that their priorites and objectives in striking such a deal will be any different from what they are now, while they are trying to strike a deal before the no-deal Brexit. This is where I disagree most. The fact is that the EU has groundswell of populism currently. Any hint that leaving the EU is painless and easy and can result in a good outcome absolutely has to be stamped on. The effect of this is that the EU is using a different set of priorities with the UK negotiations then it would do were the UK my mythical “new country off the coast”. That can’t be avoided, hence the hard line from the EU and the probable dip in UK prospects in the short to middle term. However. The EU will likely wait a suitable amount of time, long enough for it to be seen as living up to its word, and then will seek to establish better terms with the UK after all. It is isn’t an evil organisation, just very, very, very pragmatic. The rest of your points are all reasonable, I don’t agree with them all but then there is no objective standard by which we can measure the correctness of either of our positions. We have never been in this position before, no country has. It is uncharted territory, there is no case study we can use to say with any certainty what will happen whether we stay or go. Heck, the EU itself has yet to prove itself capable of stability in its current form. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 9:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/407 "2018-12-05T09:39:46Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Actually, it is the EU that is choosing to put barriers up. The UK government is on record as saying they want to maintain those systems. It is the EU who don’t want to allow it. Or alternatively the EU has been very clear that the four freedoms are indivisible. It’s the rules of the club, right? The UK’s insistence on ending freedom of movement is the barrier, and all the kerfuffle ultimately stems from that. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/408 "2018-12-05T10:09:08Z")
Right; if I loudly refuse to follow the rules at the country club and renounce my membership, the country club is not the group “putting up barriers” when they refuse to let me back in. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/409 "2018-12-05T10:20:27Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Actually, it is the EU that is choosing to put barriers up. [ **What ??** You are the ones leaving a customs union. No one asked you to. It is not any **surprise** that leaving that means that the various requirements for the trade barriers come into play - **this is how the international trade works in the real world.** Maybe not in the fantasy world of the Brexiters who seem to have dreamed up non existent technologies and other Trade Unicorns, but in the real world leaving a customs unions means trade barriers and checks! In fact it is indeed on the physical and the human infrastructure that you on your side of the Channel are … well the only word [I can use is pathetically unprepared on, from **the Financial Times**](https://www.ft.com/content/5c737284-f7ac-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c) > [@](#): > > ``` > The report also examined industries that would be at the forefront of any Brexit-related disruption. Airlines said they were increasingly confident that an agreement would be struck to prevent disruption to flights, **whereas ports were concerned about a lack of space and manpower to cope with no deal.** > > ``` > > “At this point in time, the ports are not ready for a move to an administrative WTO [World Trade Organization] arrangement with customs checks on both sides of the border,” Mark Carney, the BoE governor, said on Tuesday, emphasising that this assessment was based on information from ports and logistics companies. > > He also warned that there were limits to what the government could do to ease the strains on Dover port. Nor would it help if the UK simply waived new controls until it was ready to implement them, he said. > > “The issue is if the new standards are applied on the other side. The truck that comes here has to come back. The truck that goes back empty or has to wait isn’t going to come here in the first place. That’s something you learn in about five minutes [speaking to logistics companies],” Mr Carney told the Treasury select committee. > > Aerospace and car manufacturers were the most concerned about the impact of no deal on their business. Giving evidence to MPs on Tuesday, Toyota executive Tony Walker said it would be “very, very difficult for us to cope” with a no-deal Brexit. > > “Toyota has 50 trucks a day coming through the [Channel] tunnel and hold just four hours of parts. Everything has to be in sequence,” said Mr Walker, who is the carmaker’s deputy managing director for Europe. You have shot your own supply chain systems for the industry in the back of the head over the silly Polish plumbers that have annoyed the middle England… > [@](#): > > The UK government is on record as saying they want to maintain those systems. It is the EU who don’t want to allow it. The UK is on the record saying it wants all the legal and the operational benefits of the customs union framework but none of the requirements of that framework. It is … extremely childish and the actions of the politically immature to say this is the fault of the other party that you are not prepared, that you want a Trade Unicorn and we are really horrible people for not providing you with the Trade Unicorn and not even one that is in the UK colors. It is … an act of completely incoherent, astonishing childish arrogance to assert UK are leaving the Customs Union but No, you Really Really insist that in fact no barriers be applied for you and no customs checks… in fact you just want to have the same Customs Union system… **The international trade systems do not work this way** - if you really wanted the free trade sans the customs checks, and do it rapidly, you needed to adhere to something that is the pre-existing arrangement as there is no complex trade system that has ever been negotiated and decided in a mere 12 or 24 months - even if you English people had come to the EU with some kind of coherent plan from the day one… which you did not. It is not the fault of the EU or anyone on this side of the Channel that the UK approach and politics has been infected with some bizarre form of the completely **magical thinking** that has ignored all the precedents on the time lines that have been needed for the negotiation of the free trade agreements … with the EU or the comparable bodies. The idea of the Quick and Easy and some special Bespoke English Deal Tailored to the English national obsessions… this was completely magical thinking! It is not the EU being difficult - it is the situation that is very complicated at the best and the only resolutions that could be quick were the ones that were the Pre Defined but for the complete internal incoherence of your own politics you can not even arrange an internal agreement on!!! Do not point the finger at us, this is a complete mess purely of your own doing! I ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/410 "2018-12-05T10:22:22Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Right; if I loudly refuse to follow the rules at the country club and renounce my membership, the country club is not the group “putting up barriers” when they refuse to let me back in. Well yes. You loudly renounce the membership, then you refuse the **existing associated Membership programs** as not for you and insist on having a whole new Special For ME membership program be laid out… bu you yourself keep changing your mind about exactly what you need… _ **And this is the fault of who?** _ ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/411 "2018-12-05T10:38:01Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Right; if I loudly refuse to follow the rules at the country club and renounce my membership, the country club is not the group “putting up barriers” when they refuse to let me back in. The EU is does not exist as a single monolithic club with a single form of membership and single set of rules that cannot be amended. If an external country (the UK) is offering to put in place systems to allow frictionless trade and the EU decides not to allow it then they are perfectly at liberty to do so but only one side is putting up barriers. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/412 "2018-12-05T10:45:43Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > The EU is does not exist as a single monolithic club with a single form of membership and single set of rules that cannot be amended. > > If an external country (the UK) is offering to put in place systems to allow frictionless trade and the EU decides not to allow it then they are perfectly at liberty to do so but only one side is putting up barriers. No. This is completely the Magical Thinking. The Customs Unions work on the basis of the specific rule sets. These rule sets are things that are complex. If the Uk wishes to have a quick solution, it needs to take from the exisitng menu of rule sets. This is the way the international trade treaties work. That is it. The UK having magical ideas and saying “We Propose Frictionless Trade” is … childish. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/413 "2018-12-05T11:10:15Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > The EU is does not exist as a single monolithic club with a single form of membership and single set of rules that cannot be amended. > > If an external country (the UK) is offering to put in place systems to allow frictionless trade and the EU decides not to allow it then they are perfectly at liberty to do so but only one side is putting up barriers. I need to stop using analogies here; one of us is clearly really bad at them. When it comes to international trade, the EU actually does exist with a single set of rules, last I checked. That’s why CETA was considered bilateral instead of multilateral - it was between Canada and the EU, not Canada and France and Greece and Poland and Spain and so on and so forth. The idea that any given country will just accept a tax- and tariff-free trade deal with any other given country absent further regulations and agreements is not just wrong, it’s so wrong that I’m legitimately unsure how you got there. It’s bizarre. A frictionless trade deal such as in the EU the exception rather than the rule, and, as leavers know quite well, is accompanied by a mountain of rules to try to ensure that nobody gets screwed. That’s what the EU is, and that’s what leavers want to opt out of. This is what Ramira is talking about. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/414 "2018-12-05T11:16:24Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > It is … extremely childish and the actions of the politically immature to say this is the fault of the other party Who is using the language of “fault” here? certainly not me. > [@](#): > > that you are not prepared, that you want a Trade Unicorn and we are really horrible people for not providing you with the Trade Unicorn and not even one that is in the UK colors. Childishness is talking about unicorns and assigning positions to me I don’t hold. Who said anything about “horrible people”. The EU (the political entity, not the people - a distinction you don’t seem interested in making) are perfectly at liberty to stick to their guns and put those restrictions in place and I understand exactly why they are doing what they are doing but let’s not pretend that they are not playing hard-ball for internal political reasons. > [@](#): > > It is … an act of completely incoherent, astonishing childish arrogance to assert UK are leaving the Customs Union but No, you Really Really insist that in fact no barriers be applied for you and no customs checks… in fact you just want to have the same Customs Union system… The incoherence is all yours as that is not something I have asserted. There is no\* insistence \*of no barriers but there is a willingness on one side to maintain no barriers, on the other side, not so much. > [@](#): > > **The international trade systems do not work this way** international trade works in whatever way two entities decide it does. > [@](#): > > - if you really wanted the free trade sans the customs checks, and do it rapidly, you needed to adhere to something that is the pre-existing arrangement as there is no complex trade system that has ever been negotiated and decided in a mere 12 or 24 months Sure, never said otherwise. > [@](#): > > - even if you English people had come to the EU with some kind of coherent plan from the day one… which you did not. \*you English people \*? don’t you mean the UK Government? > [@](#): > > It is not the fault of the EU or anyone on this side of the Channel that the UK approach and politics has been infected with some bizarre form of the completely **magical thinking** that has ignored all the precedents on the time lines that have been needed for the negotiation of the free trade agreements … with the EU or the comparable bodies. Again with insistence on assigning fault. As for precedents? There is no precedent for this. None. You have two, perfectly aligned entities with mutual benefits aplenty and a long history of cooperation. The groundwork is already done. > [@](#): > > The idea of the Quick and Easy and some special Bespoke English Deal Tailored to the English national obsessions… this was completely magical thinking! It is not the EU being difficult For god’s sake, _of course the EU is being difficult_. It has a self-evident, perfectly consistent reason for doing so. That’s not a issue of blame or being evil it is just the realities of politics. They have proclaimed themselves that that the UK must be worse-off outside the EU than in. A perfectly sensible position for them to take but one that perfectly fits the description of “difficult” what possible motivation have they to behave any other way? > [@](#): > > Do not point the finger at us, this is a complete mess purely of your own doing! hang on, didn’t you say it was… > [@](#): > > extremely childish and the actions of the politically immature to say this is the fault of the other party why yes, yes you did. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/415 "2018-12-05T11:19:41Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > No. > > This is completely the Magical Thinking. > > The Customs Unions work on the basis of the specific rule sets. These rule sets are things that are complex. > > If the Uk wishes to have a quick solution, it needs to take from the exisitng menu of rule sets. > > This is the way the international trade treaties work. > > That is it. > > The UK having magical ideas and saying “We Propose Frictionless Trade” is … childish. What is magical thinking is the assertion that there is only one way of approaching a trade deal and only one possible outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/416 "2018-12-05T11:34:05Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > I need to stop using analogies here; one of us is clearly really bad at them. When it comes to international trade, the EU actually does exist with a single set of rules, last I checked. That’s why CETA was considered bilateral instead of multilateral - it was between Canada and the EU, not Canada and France and Greece and Poland and Spain and so on and so forth. Sure and the length of time it took was in large part because of the distance between the two entities on many issues. The UK and the EU currently have perfect alignment. > [@](#): > > The idea that any given country will just accept a tax- and tariff-free trade deal with any other given country absent further regulations and agreements is not just wrong, it’s so wrong that I’m legitimately unsure how you got there. It’s bizarre. I never said that _at all_. I don’t expect the EU to just accept such a deal. I’ve clearly said that the E.U. will stick rigidly to the rules because it is currently politically expedient to do so. Certainly the UK is willing to be far more flexible in approach, neither of those two positions seem arguable to me. Absent that political pressure you get a different deal. > [@](#): > > A frictionless trade deal such as in the EU the exception rather than the rule, and, as leavers know quite well, is accompanied by a mountain of rules to try to ensure that nobody gets screwed. and as an exception, and with the UK having close regulatory alignment already it becomes even more of an exception in the history of trade negotiations. > [@](#): > > That’s what the EU is, and that’s what leavers want to opt out of You’d be very wrong to think that “the leavers” represent any coherent opinion at all. There is a multiplicity of opinions as to what any “leave” should look like. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/417 "2018-12-05T11:48:16Z")
You know what, my posting on this isn’t helping me or anyone. I’ve read back over the last day or so and I’m not even convinced by what I’ve written. I’ve got some rather unhappy personal issues that I suspect are coming out in my posts and I’m starting to imagine ill-will where none is intended and that’s not a good place to be in nor an honest place to debate from. Apologies all round for any inconvenience, I shall take a break and will be back in a better frame of mind when all the crappy stuff has passed.☹ ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/418 "2018-12-05T11:52:10Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > What is magical thinking is the assertion that there is only one way of approaching a trade deal and only one possible outcome. … there is **no statement** that there is only one way of approaching a trade deal. However, there is the example of the past decades of multiple different trade deals… between trading blocs, between individual countries. There are zero example of the magical result of “we propose frictionless trade” and an agreement in the 12 months or the 24 months. \*\*None. \*\* It is, encore, the _ **magical thinking** _ to think that the trading system is resolved by the asserting “we propose frictionless trade” without either the adhering to an existing framework or the years of the detailed negotiations for the bespoke deal (like with the Canada). It is incredible, it is the child being angry for not getting the Unicorn. > [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > . I’ve clearly said that the E.U. will stick rigidly to the rules because it is currently politically expedient to do so. . Sticking rigidly to the rules means in this case simply applying the rules and not for some bizarre reason just waiving in a manner with zero precedent the customs controls and rules for the tracking of the origin and the content of the goods because for some strange reason the English have convinced themselves they are very very super special and none of the precedents of the decades and decades of trade negotiations or the time frames apply to them… But everyone is being big Meanies to the English… ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/419 "2018-12-05T13:06:39Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Sure and the length of time it took was in large part because of the distance between the two entities on many issues. The UK and the EU currently have perfect alignment. Britain voted to leave the EU. That’s hardly “perfect alignment”. It seems to me one of the biggest reasons for people hoping to leave is that they’re sick of that alignment! They don’t like dancing to Brussels’ tune. They don’t like EU regulations and rules. This may not be a coherent or well-thought-out position, but it gives the EU good reason to hesitate on a free trade deal. > [@](#): > > I never said that _at all_. I don’t expect the EU to just accept such a deal. I’ve clearly said that the E.U. will stick rigidly to the rules because it is currently politically expedient to do so. Certainly the UK is willing to be far more flexible in approach, neither of those two positions seem arguable to me. Absent that political pressure you get a different deal. No, you didn’t say that. That said, it seems to me to be a hidden assumption underlying your arguments - something you can’t really make the arguments you’re making without believing that. If the EU did not find it politically expedient to stick to those rules rigidly, or if we were talking about a different country (like Canada), would you expect them to quickly and easily adopt a frictionless trade agreement? It seems to me that you would, following your argument here. That’s the only way you could make the argument you’re making. And that’s just not the way things work. Frictionless free-trade agreements are notoriously fiddly and difficult affairs, requiring intense scrutiny and negotiation. You cannot just leave a deal like that and expect another equal free trade agreement to materialize. Just for reference, that last deal the UK is scrapping? 4 years of international negotiations from 1969 to 1973, plus two years of internal disagreements (and an 8-year period where they wanted to negotiate but were vetoed by France). Obviously, there’s more to joining the EU than to a free trade agreement, but that’s the magnitude we’re talking about here. And of course the UK is willing to be more flexible - a no-deal brexit would be suboptimal for the EU, but the EU is still arguing from a position of strength, because a no-deal brexit would be a disaster for the UK. The UK has to be flexible; the EU doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2018, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/420 "2018-12-05T16:05:45Z")
The Bank report crashed my computer last night and by the time I got it running again I didn’t have time to retype my whole response, but here goes: > [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > The will of people was to leave the E.U. That was the vote but nothing more was decided. Most of the political to-ing and fro-ing since the vote was based upon a questioning of what the voters actually expected to happen because of that. > To make your claim that you know what the leave voters actually wanted is utterly false. You don’t know and you can’t know beyond a general “leave the EU” statement. I’m going by what the Leave campaign promised, which is what Leave voters voted for. Actual individual Leave preferences are undoubtedly all over the map. > [@](#): > > se they need to. To allow a country to trigger and untrigger article 50 without any consequences will become unacceptable. Consider the message. The UK triggers article 50, then revokes it and things return back to either how they were or the UK gets concessions. > Not going to happen. If the UK decides not to exit, the loophole will be closed and the UK will have to give something up. To think otherwise is to fundamentally misread the history of the EU. The EU are already getting their pound of flesh in advance - they’re getting billions in movement of money and business from London to Frankfurt, Paris, etc, they’re getting the humiliation of the UK (and in particular of those who have made political careers out of criticising the EU), and they’re getting an object lesson for any other country thinking of leaving the EU. Spain will undoubtedly want further concessions on Gibraltar but the EU know that anything that economically cripples a UK still in the EU will have blowback on them in short order. > [@](#): > > As for pantomime villains, why not ask Greece of Italy how they view the EU leadership? Greece has no grounds for complaint - they lied their asses off with regard to the economic data they provided in their application to join the Eurozone and as a result nearly brought the rest of Europe down with them. I understand that they don’t like the Germans forcing them into austerity measures and to address their widespread institutional corruption but then the Germans don’t like having to pay for the Greeks’ incompetence and venality. > [@](#): > > A question for you, do you think that if the UK revokes article 50 and remains in the EU that the status quo will remain? that there will be no ramifications from that? Already answered above. The status quo is already gone, but the EU isn’t going to cripple a UK still in the EU; that would be counterproductive. > [@](#): > > I think you’ve misunderstood, I’m talking about the punishment that the UK will receive if it tries to revoke article 50 and return to the EU fold as if nothing happened. Fair enough. > [@](#): > > I note you can’t resist a crack at an imagined racist position that I do not hold. Well done. Very persuasive. It was actually a gratuitous crack at Donald Trump and his love of walls. I have no reason to believe you hold racist views. > [@](#): > > Ultimately a stable position will be reached where there are no shortages and deals are struck. Note, not every country in the world is a member of the EU. The doomsday positions that people take (like yours) want to imply that the UK cannot possibly succeed outside of the EU. That’s not a logical position and not a proven fact. Countries of lesser clout than the UK can and do exist and thrive outside of the UK already. So you’re basically saying that the UK will become a third-world country economically. Good to know. > [@](#): > > Might the UK be measurably worse off outside of the EU? Quite possibly. Might it be better off - possibly, we don’t and can’t know what the future holds either for independent nations nor the E.U. as a whole. We can and do know because the UK is already worse off and we haven’t even left yet. And there is no reason to assume that the UK will be better off, whereas there is substantial reason to believe it will be worse off. > [@](#): > > Again, hyperbole, scaremongering, not even the worst case scenarios suggested by the BoE make such a claim. They do, actually. > [@](#): > > As for the richest people pushing for Brexit?[Poorer households were more likely to vote to leave.](https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities) You’re confusing the people pushing for Leave with the people voting for Leave. Who are the people who own the Sun, the Mail, the Telegraph and the other media that have been spewing a steady stream of anti-immigrant and anti-EU propaganda for decades? Who is leading the charge for Brexit now? > [@](#): > > That’s fine, beer and kittens not required, you’ve conceded my point. No, you’ve just handwaved away mine. > [@](#): > > I didn’t sugarcoat it at all. > > Do you admit that those predictions given by the BoE represent the very worst of the worst outcomes and would require inaction and bad decisions all round coupled with malign influences from external forces? If you’ve read it all and the analysis of it by neutral observers then that is certainly the case. I have read all of it and you are grossly mischaracterising the Bank report. The report does contain a worst-case scenario but it also contains several other scenarios including analyses by several independent sources and with the exception of the analysis from [Economists for Free Trade](https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/08/09/economists-free-trade-meet-independent-experts-ties-climate-science-denial-pushing-no-deal-brexit) (a pro-Brexit advocacy group linked to Jacob Rees-Mogg) the predictions are all negative for every Brexit scenario. The Bank may be conservative in its analysis but indulgence in hysterical scaremongering is not one of its flaws. I’m curious as to who these “neutral observers” are you are referring to. > [@](#): > > Remember, I’m not a leaver. I want to stay in and disrupt the EU political machine from within but I’ve been constantly depressed by the short-sighted analysis, positional certainty, demonisation and scaremongering tactics on all sides…all sides. …and you thought you’d get in on the action? 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