# Brexit - general discussion thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424 "2018-11-12T20:29:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DCTrekkie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dctrekkie/32/18862_2.png) [@DCTrekkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCTrekkie)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/61 "2018-11-14T15:05:10Z")
> [@Nava](#): > > **Velocity** , the majority of electoral-college voters voted for Trump in 2016: would he stop being president if a poll taken of those same people now said a chunk of them have changed their mind? In the UK, the majority of people who voted did vote for Brexit. “I changed my mind” doesn’t work for this kind of situation. Hopefully that’s exactly what will happen in 2020. 😃 Why go ahead with something the public doesn’t want, just because they thought differently 2 years ago. > [@UDS](#): > > Yes, all this. > > Plus also the question of timing. As of right now, the UK is on an inexorable course to quit the EU on 29 March 2019. That is almost certainly not enough time for the UK to take the legislative, administrative and practical steps and processes that a referendum would require, so they’d need to agree an extension of time with the EU, and this would require the _unamimous_ consent of the 27 other member states of the EU. This consent is unlikely to be forthcoming unless allowing time for another referendum afforded a good prospect of a materially better outcome (from the EU’s point of view) than not allowing time would. > > Tl;dr: At this point a second referendum is only feasible if the EU-27 all agree that it would be a good idea. The EU have said that they would be happy for the UK to cancel Brexit. The guy who wrote the “Article 50” withdrawal document has said that the intention was for a leaver to cancel with or without the EU’s agreement, and there’s a court case soon to confirm whether that’s legally the case. The only people saying that we can’t cancel the withdrawAl are the brexiteers who are scared they might still lose. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/62 "2018-11-14T15:25:59Z")
> [@SanVito](#): > > Bolding mine. Not sure I’d agree with this at all. As disastrous as the Tories have been, Labour have done nothing to capitalise on it. And I speak as a Labour voter. Yes, sure. But if a general election is called because the Tory government has collapsed due to internal feuding over how it fucked up Brexit, they Tories won’t be in any position to campaign. Right now, Labour should be ahead in the polls but aren’t - but there’s no way they wouldn’t have the edge over a Tory party that’s a) visibly screwed up and b) is tearing itself apart. Anyhow, my main point is that this is how Labour are thinking of their chances - hence their motivation to vote the WA down. Whether, in the era of the FTPA, that’s enough to actually force an election, is another question. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/63 "2018-11-14T15:30:37Z")
> [@Nava](#): > > **Velocity** , the majority of electoral-college voters voted for Trump in 2016: would he stop being president if a poll taken of those same people now said a chunk of them have changed their mind? In the UK, the majority of people who voted did vote for Brexit. “I changed my mind” doesn’t work for this kind of situation. But the U.S. presidential election results are legally binding. AIUI, isn’t there really no force of law to make Brexit go forward, other than everyone hem-hawing, “Well, since the vote happened, we have to do it” despite the referendum having no real binding power? ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/64 "2018-11-14T16:28:08Z")
As with most aspects of our politico-constitutional set-up, it comes down to MPs’ judgement as to what the voters will let them get away with. Of course, the sovereignty of “the Crown in Parliament” means they could in theory say the referendum result can be put aside (could always have), but you don’t have to imagine very hard to see how that would play. But on the other hand, another referendum or another general election would just as likely come to an unsustainably inconclusive result. Indeed it’s not impossible that the MPs’ own votes will be pretty chaotic, in their relation (or lack of it) to coherent party positions for the future. And David Cameron reportedly imagines he could come back as Foreign Secretary… ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/65 "2018-11-14T16:56:25Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > But the U.S. presidential election results are legally binding. AIUI, isn’t there really no force of law to make Brexit go forward, other than everyone hem-hawing, “Well, since the vote happened, we have to do it” despite the referendum having no real binding power? > [@PatrickLondon](#): > > As with most aspects of our politico-constitutional set-up, it comes down to MPs’ judgement as to what the voters will let them get away with. Of course, the sovereignty of “the Crown in Parliament” means they could in theory say the referendum result can be put aside (could always have), but you don’t have to imagine very hard to see how that would play. But on the other hand, another referendum or another general election would just as likely come to an unsustainably inconclusive result. Indeed it’s not impossible that the MPs’ own votes will be pretty chaotic, in their relation (or lack of it) to coherent party positions for the future. > > And David Cameron reportedly imagines he could come back as Foreign Secretary… Within the UK, there’s no force of law behind the referendum result. As PatrickLondon says, it’s about political realities. However, the UK did go ahead and submit Article 50 notification (following a vote in Parliament). Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union is pretty straightforward, and one of the most straightforward things about it is that the member state which wishes to exit **will** do so 2 years after submitting notification, unless both parties agree to an extension. The 2 years gives time to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement but in the event that 2 years pass without such an agreement, exit happens nonetheless. As things stand, the UK will exit the EU on 29th March 2019, by force of law. > [@](#): > > [3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period](http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html) It is possible that, should the UK government fall, or Parliament vote down the WA, the EU would consent to extending the deadline so that both parties can come back to the table and try again. But they don’t have to, and they’d have to be pretty sure the UK could commit to the resulting deal second time round or what would be the point of granting more time? It is also possible, but less so, that the UK could wihdraw its A50 notification and just stay in the EU. It’s not yet clear whether this is legally possible (a court case to seek a ruling on this is currently underway); even if it is legal, it’s unclear that this is a viable political move. I mean, it may be! It’s possible that people are sufficiently hacked off with the whole Brexit thing to tolerate just backing out of it. But really you’d want to have won a general election on the explicit promise to do so, rather than just doing it off your own bat and telling people to trust you, you know what you’re doing. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/66 "2018-11-14T19:33:09Z")
Yeesh. What a mess. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/67 "2018-11-14T19:58:41Z")
Apparently the Brexit agreement is 400 pages long. I’m minded of one of my maths teachers who used to say, “If it’s long it’s wrong.” ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/68 "2018-11-14T20:15:37Z")
Draft here: [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft\_withdrawal\_agreement\_0.pdf](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf) Could some readers here read it and summarize for the rest of us (the draft is 585 pages long–but it is double-spaced). ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/69 "2018-11-14T20:23:21Z")
Well it’s gettinb late here, and I have an early start tomorrow, but first impressions ar with at free movement of persons has been kept in essence the same way, with only some changes to form. Looks like Farage lost this argument. Concubinage it is! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/70 "2018-11-14T20:31:58Z")
This mess will probably deter any other EU nations from Brexiting; if anything, it probably strengthened the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/71 "2018-11-14T21:49:19Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Draft here: > [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft\_withdrawal\_agreement\_0.pdf](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf) > > Could some readers here read it and summarize for the rest of us (the draft is 585 pages long–but it is double-spaced). I’ve just downloaded it. I’ve dined too well to analyse it tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slow_moving_vehicle/32/291_2.png) [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slow_Moving_Vehicle)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/72 "2018-11-14T22:49:43Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I’ve just downloaded it. I’ve dined too well to analyse it tonight. Nothing like a little light reading for the john. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/73 "2018-11-14T23:55:43Z")
The ERG are mobilising, apparently, to trigger a no-confidence vote with the Chair of the 1922 Committee. It’s been mentioned on Twitter that this might not be specifically to unseat May, but to run down the clock. They fear that if the WA reaches the Commons, then ‘no deal’ is out of picture, and there’d be amendments to further soften the WA. Anathema to Brexit cultists. But a leadership contest would paralyse parliament up to Christmas at least, meaning almost no time for the deal to be considered by parliament. Good grief. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2018, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/74 "2018-11-14T23:56:36Z")
> [@Slow\_Moving\_Vehicle](#): > > Nothing like a little light reading for the john. The bath, TYVM. 😃 Nothing like a nice soak with a book or a printout. But the thing desperately needs a summary, a table of contents, and an index. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/75 "2018-11-15T00:13:09Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > But a leadership contest would paralyse parliament up to Christmas at least, meaning almost no time for the deal to be considered by parliament. > > Good grief. Turnabout is fair play. People complained about the delay in invoking Article 50. People complained about the law suits by the Remainers. And so on. So now we get to complain about delaying tactics by the Leavers. I do want this to be a good deal for Britain. But no deal is better than a bad deal - it was a bad initial deal and the contempt the EU elites held for the UK that got us into this mess (and similarly the contempt of the elites got Trump elected in the US). So it’s got to be a good deal. BTW I’ve just done a quick search of the document for fish - of particular importance hereabouts - and it seems like complete and abject surrender. Article 130 FWIW. > [@](#): > > As regards the fixing of fishing opportunities within the meaning of Article 43(3) TFEU for any period falling within the transition period, **the United Kingdom shall be consulted in respect of the fishing opportunities related to the United Kingdom** , including in the context of the preparation of relevant international consultations and negotiations. Bolding mine. That’s in relation to our own waters! No change from the present. But a full read may reveal that I’m wrong (I hope so) and a different and better interpretation. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/76 "2018-11-15T00:38:21Z")
Quartz: Scottish Tory MPs are also concerned about this: > [@](#): > > Scottish Conservative MPs have written to the Prime Minister to raise their concern over fishing rights post-Brexit as Theresa May looks to build support for a Brexit deal. > > In the letter, the 13 MPs said they would not support an agreement with the EU which would prevent the UK from independently negotiating access and quota shares. > > Mrs May had previously agreed to calls from the Scottish Conservatives to exit the Common Fisheries Policy by the end of 2020. > **[Home](https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/)** > >   2209434 ---
**Author:** ![UDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecae2f/32.png) [@UDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UDS)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/77 "2018-11-15T01:11:51Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > BTW I’ve just done a quick search of the document for fish - of particular importance hereabouts - and it seems like complete and abject surrender. Article 130 FWIW. > > Bolding mine. That’s in relation to our own waters! > > No change from the present. But a full read may reveal that I’m wrong (I hope so) and a different and better interpretation. But that’s only during the transition period (March 2019 - December 2020), which is supposed to be a 'no immediate change to anything" period. It would be very surprising if the UK were given autonomy on fishing (or anything else) during the transition period, and I don’t think anybody expected it. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/78 "2018-11-15T01:28:23Z")
The fishing industry is very small potatoes in terms of the UK economy and employs only a few thousand people. There are bigger fish to fry. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/79 "2018-11-15T04:09:11Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > What it does not cover is a trade deal to replace EU membershiip. Trade deals are long drawn out negotiations that take a few years to agree and every one of those 27 countries in the EU could raise issues that slow down and process. This happened with the EU-Canada deal which took 7 years. And the Canada-EU deal almost got scuppered by one province in Belgium which didn’t like the deal. Once you’re outside looking in, you have much less control than when you’re inside with a seat at the table. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2018, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/80 "2018-11-15T05:11:38Z")
> [@filmstar-en](#): > > The fishing industry is very small potatoes in terms of the UK economy and employs only a few thousand people. There are bigger fish to fry. Reminded me of this exchange, in a _very_ different context: Joseph Hewes: “Mr. Jefferson, nowhere do you mention deep-sea fishing rights.” [Everyone in Congress groans in frustration] John Adams: “Oh, good God! _Fishing rights?_ How long is this piddling to go on? We have been here for three solid days! We have endured, by my count, more than eighty-five separate changes and the removal of close to four hundred words. Now, would you whip it and beat it 'til you break its spirit?..” From the musical _1776_. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424.md?page=5)