# Brexit - general discussion thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424 "2018-11-12T20:29:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/141 "2018-11-16T06:22:20Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > It’s as if we speak the same language but the net effect is as comprehensible as if it’s Swahili. > > 😕 😃 In fact Mrs May has also forgotten that Botham once ran out Boycott purposely, since he was playing too slowly. Beefy then compared Boycott to a female anatomy part. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/142 "2018-11-16T06:55:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > She dissolves Parliament, takes charge personally, and announces that the U.K. will Remain in the European Community. Even if this weren’t a crazy fantasy, she _can’t_ dissolve Parliament. That prerogative was abolished in 2010. Parliament now dissolves automatically before an election, without her being involved at all. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/143 "2018-11-16T08:11:18Z")
What’s everyone’s take on the future viability of the Conservative Party? I’m skeptical, as modern parties seem incredibly durable and MPs loathe to be labelled the ones that destroyed a party, but it seems to be being threatened by some. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/144 "2018-11-16T08:12:56Z")
> [@UDS](#): > > At a time like this, you have to play to your strengths. I agree there’s an appalling dearth of leadership in the UK at the moment (on both sides of politics), but May isn’t entirely talentless; she has one superpower, which is the ability to cling to office like a limpet in circumstances where most prime ministers would be long gone. It’s not much, but it’s all there is to work with. > > So here’s a scenario: > > - EU: Council endorses the deal when it meets on 25 November. > > - Deal fails to secure majority in UK Parliament in early December. General election does not ensue, because of Fixed Term Parliaments Act. May does not resign, is not sshafted by party. > > - EU says always happy to talk but, basically, we see no need to depart from deal already negotiated and accepted by HMG and by European Council. > > - Markets drop because of increasing risk of no-deal Brexit. Corporates begin to execute no-deal plans, leading to economic disruption. Markets drop some more. Sterling tanks. Increasing public disquiet. > > - UK negotiators secure cosmetic changes to agreed deal and, in say mid-January, the cosmetically changed deal is put to UK Parliament again. Pressure on MPs from party funders (Tory) and constituents (Labour) to avoid no-deal Brexit is now much greater. MPs know that if they vote in a way that delivers no-deal Brexit, they will be crucified at the next election. Parliament accepts deal. > > Basically, May has two things going for her: > > 1. Her ability to cling to office. > > 2. Brexiteer fantasies are unrealisable and the closer Brexit-day gets, the clearer this becomes. > > All May has to do is to hang on until reality triumphs. Or, at any rate, that may be her strategy at this point. This seems realistic. My ideal fantasy would be cancellation of the whole thing so we keep our opt-outs and rebate, as I’m pretty sure we’ll return to the EU in a decade’s time. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/145 "2018-11-16T11:08:29Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > My ideal fantasy would be cancellation of the whole thing so we keep our opt-outs and rebate, as I’m pretty sure we’ll return to the EU in a decade’s time. But the trouble is that after going through all this process there will be little or no appetite in the 27 to accommodate any more special arrangements for us. Useful piece in the Guardian this morning about how the various parliamentary factions on this issue add up: [https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament) One could speculate as to whether this is the ultimate issue that causes a refiguration of parties, but the ingrained habits of the system tend to mean that even if something splits one of the major parties (Corn Laws, Home Rule, 1931 and all that), in the end it’s reabsorbed back into a two-party dominance. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/146 "2018-11-16T11:28:59Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > What’s everyone’s take on the future viability of the Conservative Party? I’m skeptical, as modern parties seem incredibly durable and MPs loathe to be labelled the ones that destroyed a party, but it seems to be being threatened by some. > Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It is a very old party, dating from 1812, and it has seem schisms like this in the past. The Corn Laws, The Reform Act, Tariff Reform, The Irish Question. It seems to bounce back after these big splits. Brexit is just the same, it as been rumbling away since the 1970s when the UK changed from its old Commonealth trading pattern to one that engaged Continental Europe. Containing that Atlanticist versus European Community split is essential for a party leader. Sad to say, in that respect Cameron failed spectacularly with his ill conceived Brexit Referendum. The Conservatives are a lot more resilient than the other UK parties such as Labour and the Liberals. However it does need modernising, its membership is very low and the average age of members is over sixty. Labour are ahead in that respect, but it has its own schism between Old and New Labour that shows no signs of going away. Parties are institutions and by their nature are slow to adapt to a changing world. It takes a shock to shake them up. They will have to lose a couple of elections for that to happen. The party system is looking very old and tired in this smartphone, app happy social media obsessed world. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/147 "2018-11-16T11:42:15Z")
Errr…on the issue of _The Irish Question_. This damn process has brought it up again! :smack: In 2000 years, Britain, its language, culture, common law and achievements will all be forgotten by all except some historians. The average person will however, still have heard of the Irish question. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/148 "2018-11-16T13:53:59Z")
The headlines saying This Deal or No Deal. The Withdrawal Agreement is not going to be a ping pong ball bouncing back and forth between Westminster and Brussels. It goes to Brussels as it is. If they agree then it is a done deal. The only thing that will break the deal is if May loses out in a vote and it is not endorsed by the UK government. She will also have to survive the challenge of a confidence vote if there enough letters from disgruntled Conservative MPs. However, what choice does any successor have? Crash out of the EU? Parliament will surely vote to support the deal and have to live with this the Withdrawal plan as it stands. The deal means several years of negotiating solutions to all outstanding issues and then negotiating a trade deal with the EU in detail…and maybe with some other countries. It will be another couple of years of the same sort of wrangling, crises, deadlines and posturing. There will be no end to it. The only other alternative is to have another Referendum. At least this time, there would be something solid to read rather than the wild speculations that happened last time. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/149 "2018-11-16T17:41:50Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > …In 2000 years, Britain, its language, culture, common law and achievements will all be forgotten by all except some historians. The average person will however, still have heard of the Irish question. I have to disagree. Since the Good Friday Agreement, the Irish question, such as it is, has gotten much less attention. In two millennia I doubt it will be remembered by the average person. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/150 "2018-11-16T18:35:19Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > And I wonder what’s going to happen to all of the expensive real estate in London that’s now occupied by bankers when the EU banking center moves onto Dublin or Paris or where-ever? The main beneficiary appears to be Frankfurt, followed by Paris and Luxembourg (and to some extent Berlin). A few firms are moving to Dublin but not very many. And most companies aren’t moving out completely; they’re moving significant chunks of their workforce to the Continent but they’ll still have London offices. There will be empty floors in buildings and will slow down the current mad skyscraper building rush, which is one of the few benefits of the situation I’ve noted, but it’s not like the City is going to be a ghost town. > [@](#): > > And whatever happened to the claim that leaving the EU would free up 350 million pounds a week that could instead be spent on the NHS? The very next morning Nigel Farage went on television and admitted that it wasn’t true and if it had been up to him they never would have used it on the buses he’d repeatedly been photographed standing in front of with nary an objection previously, and basically Leave admitted the whole thing was a blatant lie even though they’d sworn up and down it was true before the vote. ---
**Author:** ![KatTP](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/9dc877/32.png) [@KatTP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KatTP)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/151 "2018-11-16T20:39:15Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Yup. It’s a real slog. And another book arrived this morning which took priority. What was the book? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/152 "2018-11-17T02:06:06Z")
I think this is a fair summary of the current position (correct me where I’m wrong): - the Article 50 deadline date of the UK leaving the EU is fixed in law, at two years after invocation - The Withdrawal Agreement is the current contentious issue before Parliament - the backstop is the really contentious part Fair? Edit: Damn, that formatting looked better before it posted ---
**Author:** ![williambaskerville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f14d63/32.png) [@williambaskerville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/williambaskerville)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/153 "2018-11-17T06:44:38Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > I think this is a fair summary of the current position (correct me where I’m wrong): > > - the Article 50 deadline date of the UK leaving the EU is fixed in law, at two years after invocation > > - The Withdrawal Agreement is the current contentious issue before Parliament > > - the backstop is the really contentious part > > Fair? > > Edit: Damn, that formatting looked better before it posted Largely fair, except that the backdrop is as much to protect the interests of Northern Ireland. Leaving aside the issue of a possible return to violence, 34% of NI’s exports go to the Republic. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/154 "2018-11-17T07:08:52Z")
> [@PatrickLondon](#): > > But the trouble is that after going through all this process there will be little or no appetite in the 27 to accommodate any more special arrangements for us. No special arrangements, just _status quo ante_. Yesterday Tusk indicated withdrawing Article 50 was possible. It would certainly be the simplest solution. ---
**Author:** ![Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/22d042/32.png) [@Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/155 "2018-11-17T07:36:05Z")
I broadly agree with the Baron’s summary, accepting the point about the backstop being in all of Ireland’s interests, and quibbling that theoretically it would be possible for a materially different withdrawal agreement, if only anyone had any bright ideas. So what are the implications? In my opinion, the practicalities of process rule out a lot of hypothetical outcomes. Simplifying for the sake of brevity: The UK will not crash out of the EU without a deal next spring. In practice, there is almost no scope for that to happen ‘by default’, and there is no scope for this Parliament (or the next) to have a majority of MPs who favour ‘no deal’. While in theory, Parliament could decide to cancel Brexit before the Article 50 process ends, in practice it won’t. The committed Remainers who would have to work very hard to achieve this, will all conclude that it will be easier and more likely to cancel Brexit from the transitional period. This withdrawal agreement gets passed. I think this is more likely than not. It’s a terrible deal, but probably as good as any other. No MP will be happy voting for it, but no one will propose a better alternative, and few MPs will be willing to accept responsibility for no deal. Which leads neatly on to the fourth possibility. Brexit day is delayed - that is the Article 50 period is extended. If Parliament won’t accept this withdrawal agreement, won’t propose another, and won’t accept ‘no deal’, then the EU will graciously allow the period to run on. Ultimately, Parliament will have to accept a withdrawal agreement, most likely the one on the table now. The EU won’t throw Britain out unless Parliament rallies around a cunning plan to exploit the delay to Britain’s advantage. But if Parliament reaches a consensus then there wiould be no need to delay. So at some point, probably next spring, the UK will enter a transitional period much like the one Theresa May has single handedly negotiated. (I seem to be in the tiny minority who considers her to be a politician of exceptional character and ability.) When the transitional period ends, I think the outcomes for Great Britain are, in descending order of probability: Brexit in name only Remain on previous terms Canada style free trade agreement Remain on new terms. The fourth appears as a possible (if unlikely) outcome for the first time. It involves UK adherence to all EU social legislation, membership of the euro, membership of Schengen, sensible financial contributions. A boy can dream… 😃 The likely outcomes for Northern Ireland are: Effective Reunification while maintaining the pretence of the Union Explicit Reunification A hard border with civil unrest A hard border with the recommencement of the armed struggle The first being a relatively small development of the status quo ante - all the current bluster about the integrity of the UK seems to me to overlook the reality of the last few decades. All in my humble opinion! ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/156 "2018-11-17T11:48:38Z")
> [@Sandwich](#): > > The first being a relatively small development of the status quo ante - all the current bluster about the integrity of the UK seems to me to overlook the reality of the last few decades. I disagree. The majority of the Northern Irish do not wish union with Southern Ireland. The simple solution is to let NI and SI sort out the border issue themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Staggerlee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/staggerlee/32/3134_2.png) [@Staggerlee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Staggerlee)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/157 "2018-11-17T12:46:12Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Did she (May) seriously name drop Geoff Boycott? AKA the most selfish batsman to every play the game. Guy who once helped lose a World Cup final by being so ridiculously slow? > Who was once dropped for being too slow while batting? Who was sacked as captain after a revolt? > Now if she had said Peter May, she would have had a point. Not being a cricket fan, the only thing I know Geoffrey Boycott for is old-school paternalistic racism. So probably a suitable Brexit role-model, thinking about it. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/158 "2018-11-17T13:44:27Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I disagree. The majority of the Northern Irish do not wish union with Southern Ireland. The simple solution is to let NI and SI sort out the border issue themselves. Simple as in the simplistic solution. the entities sub-national can not decide on the national border issues, if they do, then they in effect are becoming national sovereigns. And that seems to be a political problem for your sovereign and the peace agreements. but if you wish to reignite a civil war, it is probably an excellent approach. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/159 "2018-11-17T15:26:51Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > Simple as in the simplistic solution. No, just simple. > [@](#): > > the entities sub-national can not decide on the national border issues, if they do, then they in effect are becoming national sovereigns. The EU has the principle of subsidiarity and the two would be negotiating on behalf of the rest. ---
**Author:** ![Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/22d042/32.png) [@Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424/160 "2018-11-17T17:52:24Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I disagree. The majority of the Northern Irish do not wish union with Southern Ireland. The simple solution is to let NI and SI sort out the border issue themselves. What exactly do you disagree with me about? 😕 Bearing in mind that: 1 Northern Ireland is currently in a political union with the Republic and seems happier than it has ever been 2 the majority in NI voted decisively in the 2016 referendum to stay in that union 3 left to themselves to ‘sort out’ the border issue, the Irish would presumably agree that the UK would stay in the EU, thus resolving the ‘Irish’ border issue. Is that the solution you are proposing (if so you have my full support)? You’ll also note that my suggestion for the most likely outcome for NI is in line with the proposed withdrawal agreement now placed before Parliament by a government comprised, if I remember correctly, by the party you support? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-general-discussion-thread/824424.md?page=9)