# Brexit vote prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 14, 2019, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737 "2019-01-14T15:36:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/101 "2019-01-16T15:59:38Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > The voters who voted for the new University can object to all of those things without giving up the idea that they still want a University. > > IOW, the people voted to Leave. How they leave, or what methods are used, or any new referendum should be only based upon the method of leaving, not the revisiting of the question of leaving. Well, that’s another problem with your analogy - comparing Brexit to something positive. It’s more akin to being asked ‘if we should build a new building’ and finding out the building built is a charnelhouse for Soylent Green. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/102 "2019-01-16T16:02:57Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > No, I don’t believe folk would just shrug their shoulders under such circumstances. However, the electorate would have a clear(ish) choice in front of them. They would have a party(the lib dems) on their ballot paper who have remained fairly committed to staying in the EU, or they could choose between either of the main 2 parties and whatever Brexit policy the 2 main parties are then proposing. The electorate can support or kick out whichever party is deems worthy of supporting or kicking out. A Parliamtary U-turn on Brexit though will mean ALL cards are off the table when it comes to future Parliamentary politics. Will still happen if Brexit happens. Imagine what happens, if May’s deal passes, when the first EU regulation that is contentious and unpopular is handed down from Brussels. Imagine if, under No Deal, medicines run out, food costs skyrocket, and jobs leave in droves. Both will fuel the far right more than cancelling Brexit will. > [@](#): > > We have seen the yellow vest movement rock the French political establishment; a movement sparked by a marginal increase in fuel tax. I can only imagine what a Brexit U-turn would spark here in the UK. I predict populism (of some sort of another) on steroids. I for one am not inclined to think appeasing the far right will make the far right go away. That kind of thinking was bust in 1939. No. We stand and stop this now. If we Brexit in future, it should be on a concrete plan, honestly presented and debated. This? Here? This isn’t democratic. It’s a mockery, an abortion of democracy. Letting it pass gives the signal that as long as you win, it doesn’t matter how you win. Fake news will go into overdrive. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/103 "2019-01-16T16:37:45Z")
Everyone in politics (which, in a democracy, means everyone) needs to understand the distinction between what \*_can_ be done, what **may** be done, and what **should** be done. The problem with Brexit, ultimately, stems from a lack of this understanding. Suppose that there is a referendum asking whether the government should set the value of pi to exactly 4. The referendum passes. What should the government do? The question is irrelevant, because the government _can’t_ set the value of pi. The government’s failure to change the value of pi doesn’t reflect on the government; it reflects (and very poorly) on the electorate, who tried to force the government to do something impossible. And it also reflects very poorly on the previous government, who even asked such a foolish question to begin with. This is the same situation that the UK faces. The People have spoken, and what they want is a deal with all of the privileges and none of the responsibilities of EU membership. Which is impossible. It was irresponsible to ask the question in the first place, and the only responsible course of action is to either ignore the response entirely, or to ask another question which only admits of answers which are actually possible. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/104 "2019-01-16T17:05:50Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > It recognized that position as valid, so much so that it put it to a referendum. Once that is done, they cannot be heard to say that they must be “adults” and override it. That is bad faith. Not only _can_ they do that, they _should_ do that. They asked the public for advice on whether to leave the EU, it turns out that that advice was dangerously wrong. It is the job of Parliament, representing the interest of their constituents, to ensure that this dangerous event does not come to pass. Even if the majority of people want to leave the EU, still, that should not be the only determining factor. We want many other things, things that require a strong economy and sensible trade policies, those things including affordable food and medicine, and god jobs. It is the job of the representatives to deliver this, and if not all of it is possible, to have the balls to say so, and to make the right decision. Which in this case is quite clearly not to leave the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/105 "2019-01-16T18:07:50Z")
Just for curiousity, I looked at the West Virginia state Constitution to see how the people can amend their fundamental document. Turns out it’s a four step process, under Article XIV: 1. People who want to call a constitutional convention can petition the Legislature to call a referendum on establishing a constitutional convention. If both chambers pass a law for the convention, there will be a referendum three months later. 2. At the referendum, the people vote whether they are in favour of holding a constitutional convention. 3. If the people vote for a constitutional convention, the convention meets and can propose constitutional amendments. 4. There is then a second referendum, where the people vote whether or not to enact the proposed amendments. That strikes me as a well-balanced, orderly process for something as significant as a constitutional amendment, which can have major effects for years. The people initiate it, through their elected officials and then by an initial referendum; an elected convention studies the issues in detail and come up with a proposal; the people then decide whether to approve what the smaller body came up with. Pity Britain didn’t think the process through with that much attention. > **[West Virginia Constitution](http://www.wvlegislature.gov/wvcode/wv_con.cfm#articleXIV)** > > The West Virginia Constitution ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/106 "2019-01-16T18:20:02Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Will still happen if Brexit happens. Imagine what happens, if May’s deal passes, when the first EU regulation that is contentious and unpopular is handed down from Brussels. > > Imagine if, under No Deal, medicines run out, food costs skyrocket, and jobs leave in droves. > > Both will fuel the far right more than cancelling Brexit will. > > I for one am not inclined to think appeasing the far right will make the far right go away. That kind of thinking was bust in 1939. > > No. > > We stand and stop this now. If we Brexit in future, it should be on a concrete plan, honestly presented and debated. > > This? Here? This isn’t democratic. It’s a mockery, an abortion of democracy. Letting it pass gives the signal that as long as you win, it doesn’t matter how you win. Fake news will go into overdrive. Just to point out that I am predicting more populism. It could be of the left or right wing variety. The centre/establishment of both main parties will become less relevant. I do believe right wing populism will benefit more but I say this only tentatively. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/107 "2019-01-16T18:39:14Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I disagree. The particular method of Brexit was known to be a difficult and as yet unknown proposition in June, 2016. Maybe a second referendum should be held as to the particular method of Brexit, but not on Leave itself. > > You have done an excellent job of trying to paint it as otherwise, but you are in essence asking for a do-over. > > Imagine a referendum on building a new State University. The opposition argues that there is no way to build a new university without deep cuts in healthcare. Notwithstanding the opposition argument, the people vote for it anyways. > > Now, as construction is about to begin, the opposition argues that there needs to be a re-vote because we would have to make deep cuts in healthcare. That proposition was understood and is not a new circumstances that just gobsmacked everyone. I don’t see the problem. If the drawbacks to Brexit were fully understood by the people who voted for it, then a second referendum would surely yield the same result, no? On the other hand, if you think there’s a genuine chance that Remain would win a second referendum, then you must be tacitly admitting that the Leave side was misled during the first referendum. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/108 "2019-01-16T18:43:12Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > I don’t see the problem. If the drawbacks to Brexit were fully understood by the people who voted for it, then a second referendum would surely yield the same result, no? On the other hand, if you think there’s a genuine chance that Remain would win a second referendum, then you must be tacitly admitting that the Leave side was misled during the first referendum. Exactly. UltraVires is basically arguing that a majority of the electorate were successfully tricked into starting to walk towards a cliff the first time around; and that we should heroically defend democratic values by insisting that they all continue to walk off the edge of the cliff hand in hand - even if the majority now don’t want to die. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/109 "2019-01-16T19:07:22Z")
Division! Clear the lobby! Vote is underway… ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/110 "2019-01-16T19:16:56Z")
306-325…VONC fails. UNLOCK! ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/111 "2019-01-16T19:30:19Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > 306-325…VONC fails. > > UNLOCK! Are you going to watch the next debate - the one about car production in Solihull? It’s one for the Parliament TV purists. I admit the appeal is less than widespread. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/112 "2019-01-16T19:52:12Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > Are you going to watch the next debate - the one about car production in Solihull? It’s one for the Parliament TV purists. I admit the appeal is less than widespread. I’m afraid I will miss that one. 🙂 As a side question…is there an office called the “clark” of the House? They seem to be referring to a clerk. Is that the same thing or is that just a silly way that you all pronounce it? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/113 "2019-01-16T20:01:42Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I’m afraid I will miss that one. 🙂 > > As a side question…is there an office called the “clark” of the House? They seem to be referring to a clerk. Is that the same thing or is that just a silly way that you all pronounce it? It’s a silly way we all pronounce it. > **[How to pronounce CLERK in English](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/pronunciation/english/clerk)** > > How to pronounce CLERK. How to say clerk. Listen to the audio pronunciation in the Cambridge English Dictionary. Learn more. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/114 "2019-01-16T20:02:19Z")
To be clear, for a Yank not familiar with Parliamentary procedure: The vote of no confidence failing means that May retains power, correct? ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/115 "2019-01-16T20:03:22Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The vote of no confidence failing means that May retains power, correct? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/116 "2019-01-16T20:05:10Z")
Unless Labour takes a firm position on being pro-referendum, it just seems like this indecisive clusterfuck will continue indefinitely. I actually _hope_ that the EU refuses to countenance an extension without some decisive path forward, either general election or referendum or both. I think that they should insist that we get our shit together at least on a _process_ for moving forward to a decision before they grant an extension; or just insist that our only other option is to rescind Article 50 altogether. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/117 "2019-01-16T20:31:43Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Unless Labour takes a firm position on being pro-referendum, it just seems like this indecisive clusterfuck will continue indefinitely. I actually _hope_ that the EU refuses to countenance an extension without some decisive path forward, either general election or referendum or both. I think that they should insist that we get our shit together at least on a _process_ for moving forward to a decision before they grant an extension; or just insist that our only other option is to rescind Article 50 altogether. I’m wondering if there’s some way they could package an “extension” that would continue until some decisive agreement was made thereby letting the clusterfuck work for the status quo instead of the cliff’s edge. Does the wording of Article 50 specifically only allow calender extensions? ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/118 "2019-01-16T20:37:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > To be clear, for a Yank not familiar with Parliamentary procedure: The vote of no confidence failing means that May retains power, correct? As a followup to this, what would be the consequence of a Tory MP voting in favor of the no confidence motion? Nothing at all or would he or she be assigned to the Falkland Islands Committee on Argentinian relations? Somewhere in between? ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/119 "2019-01-16T20:44:13Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > I don’t see the problem. If the drawbacks to Brexit were fully understood by the people who voted for it, then a second referendum would surely yield the same result, no? On the other hand, if you think there’s a genuine chance that Remain would win a second referendum, then you must be tacitly admitting that the Leave side was misled during the first referendum. That’s not what I am saying. I am saying that Remain had a full and fair chance to argue its point during the first referendum. It failed. It is unfair to hold successive referenda until the “right” result is reached, and then the process is stopped after a single victory supported by the Government. If the Government is going to do that, then the proposition should not be submitted to a referendum in the first place, which, as a political matter, I am not opposed to doing for the reasons Budget Player Cadet mentioned upthread. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737/120 "2019-01-16T20:45:50Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I’m wondering if there’s some way they could package an “extension” that would continue until some decisive agreement was made thereby letting the clusterfuck work for the status quo instead of the cliff’s edge. Does the wording of Article 50 specifically only allow calender extensions? Well, I think simply rescinding Article 50 would amount to that. It would mean that we remain in the EU and nothing changes. If we develop a coherent consensus plan for leaving at some time in the future, we can always re-start the process. But surely Leavers will be even less happy with that than with a referendum. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-vote-prediction-thread/827737.md?page=7)