# \#Brexit - whose next, whats next? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2016, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207 "2016-06-24T04:46:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/21 "2016-06-24T09:12:25Z")
> [@JoseB](#): > > That I find somewhat doubtful. Good for the UK if it can do that… But I don’t feel particularly optimistic about it. Why? There are a lot of commonwealth countries, GCC and Far Eastern countries who trade heavily with the UK, not so much with Europe, but are still struck by European quotas and tariffs which might not be favourable. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 9:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/22 "2016-06-24T09:19:40Z")
My cousin (US citizen) married a man from Dublin and they both live in London. They’ve been married three years and have lived there for 10. Does anyone know how the citizenship question will be handled yet? ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/23 "2016-06-24T09:27:38Z")
For reference, there was a huge amount of intelligent, rational analysis during the campaign, this was my favourite Leave argument: **Why I am voting Leave, by Professor Alan Johnson** > [@](#): > > My friend David Rose, the journalist, asked me to explain why I am for ‘Leave’. I agreed, and in something of a rush, put this together. Needless to say, I write in a purely personal capacity. > > I am for Leave because the EU political project has four built-in and fatal flaws: it is undemocratic, neoliberal, corrupt and a bad foreign policy actor in a dangerous world. > > I believe the EU project to create an ever closer union of many separate nationalities in one political structure is fundamentally misconceived, doesn’t work now, and can’t work in the future. As Jan Zielonka, Professor of European Politics at the University of Oxford puts it – in the essential book Is the EU Doomed? – ‘the EU has turned into an embarrassment … a symbol of austerity and conflict’ and despite ‘obtaining ever more powers at the expense of national parliaments and governments’ when the 2008 crash hit ‘proved unable to cope’. > > I am also for Leave because I believe that the Remain case rests on two fallacies: ‘No EU, no prosperity’ and ‘No EU, no peace’. > > And finally, I am willing to Leave because I think there is a better alternative: we can fight for – in a democracy you can do no more, there are no guarantees – a social democratic country modelling democratic internationalism and responsible global citizenship as an independent nation-state cooperating with its neighbours. > > So, four flaws, two fallacies and a better alternative. Which he then goes on to explain: [http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/](http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/) ---
**Author:** ![JoseB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/joseb/32/1530_2.png) [@JoseB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoseB)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/24 "2016-06-24T09:33:58Z")
Because the point will be whether the UK will have truly the influence to manage to get favorable deals with, for instance, China. I do not know. I do not have concrete numbers or details --after all, this is a truly unprecedented situation (the only previous case of a territory leaving the then Common Market was Greenland, which at the time was just a part of Denmark and not particularly relevant economically speaking). The only thing I have is a gut feeling. As I said, if I am wrong and the UK can do that, good for the UK. However, based on that gut feeling (which I readily acknowledge may be mistaken), I don’t feel optimistic. And now for my strictly personal opinion: I honestly think that this decision was a big mistake. But the UK has chosen and it will have to live with its choice. My gut feeling tells me that the UK will end up worse than it is now, and that in the end leaving the EU may well not have been worth it. Again – If I am wrong, I will be happy for the UK. I like the country and I would hate to see it suffer. But I am not optimistic about the chances. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/25 "2016-06-24T09:46:05Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > My cousin (US citizen) married a man from Dublin and they both live in London. They’ve been married three years and have lived there for 10. Does anyone know how the citizenship question will be handled yet? There aren’t really any firm answers to anything at all, but I can’t imagine that _Irish_ citizens will get kicked out, even if (and I think this is unlikely) all the other EU citizens do. Irish citizens’ ability to live and work in the UK stems from laws that predate the EU entirely. I’m not sure it would even be possible for the UK to impose immigration controls on Irish citizens without somehow running afoul of the Good Friday Agreement. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/26 "2016-06-24T09:59:10Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > There aren’t really any firm answers to anything at all, but I can’t imagine that _Irish_ citizens will get kicked out, even if (and I think this is unlikely) all the other EU citizens do. Irish citizens’ ability to live and work in the UK stems from laws that predate the EU entirely. > > I’m not sure it would even be possible for the UK to impose immigration controls on Irish citizens without somehow running afoul of the Good Friday Agreement. Did you miss the part where the Irish PM said Bexit would mean the Irish imposing border controls. ---
**Author:** ![Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/les_espaces_du_sommeil/32/308_2.png) [@Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Les_Espaces_Du_Sommeil)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/27 "2016-06-24T10:27:16Z")
> [@JoseB](#): > > The only thing I have is a gut feeling. As I said, if I am wrong and the UK can do that, good for the UK. However, based on that gut feeling (which I readily acknowledge may be mistaken), I don’t feel optimistic. > > And now for my strictly personal opinion: I honestly think that this decision was a big mistake. But the UK has chosen and it will have to live with its choice. My gut feeling tells me that the UK will end up worse than it is now, and that in the end leaving the EU may well not have been worth it. Again – If I am wrong, I will be happy for the UK. I like the country and I would hate to see it suffer. But I am not optimistic about the chances. That’s exactly how I feel. I’ve been in love with Britain and British culture since I was a kid but I’m afraid that Brexit is a staggeringly narrow-minded, huge blunder. Just gut feeling and my opinion but I’m seriously worried for a country that I’ve loved so much for so long. ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/28 "2016-06-24T10:59:10Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > It’s a non-binding referendum. GB hasn’t left yet. Remove Scotland from the vote to get a true picture and you get a strong majority wanting out. I have been out on the streets canvassing and the leave vote has been passionate and they are expecting the government to try to pull a fast one and the mood is that it would be political suicide. The next move is to ensure that we keep all of the benefits that we have gained from the EU we do b not want to throw the baby out with the bath water, boarder control has to be a priority as this is the main point that people have voted on. I have spent the last 10 years fighting to leave the EU, the work has now just began, exciting times ahead ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/29 "2016-06-24T11:19:09Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > Remove Scotland from the vote to get a true picture How is it a true picture ? The United Kingdom is united. It’s right there in the name. You don’t get to remove the chunks who don’t vote “right” when they’re inconvenient. > [@](#): > > The next move is to ensure that we keep all of the benefits that we have gained from the EU Um, are you high ? You leave, you get to keep sweet Fanny Adams from the EU. That’s what leaving _means_. As for the OP, my guess is that other EU members are going to keep a keen watch on the state of the UK before anything else happens. Personally I hope it crashes and burns as a warning to the others, but then again I’m French and thus hoping the worst for the Brits is quasi compulsory 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/les_espaces_du_sommeil/32/308_2.png) [@Les\_Espaces\_Du\_Sommeil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Les_Espaces_Du_Sommeil)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/30 "2016-06-24T11:25:28Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > The next move is to ensure that we keep all of the benefits that we have gained from the EU > > Um, are you high ? You leave, you get to keep sweet Fanny Adams from the EU. That’s what leaving _means_. Exactly. You do realize that this sentence makes you sound like a freeloader, right? Which, amusingly, is exactly how some Europeans see the UK’s contribution to the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Sampsiceramos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Sampsiceramos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sampsiceramos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/31 "2016-06-24T11:25:58Z")
> [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > My Brit friends living in Scotland seem all but certain that Scotland will leave if Britain leaves the union. > > I think Denmark might be one of the next. As a Dane living in Denmark, I have to dispute this - while our far-left and far-right morons (who coincidentally are also our most obnoxiously loud politicians) want us out of the EU really badly, this can only be done via a national vote, and most opinion polls have support for the EU in the realm of 70%. Given that I also expect Brexit to be costly and unpleasant, I find it highly unlikely that Denmark will follow suit unless the EU collapses completely. As it stands, if the UK wants to retain its access to the “inner market” of the EU, the EU starts negotiations off with a firm grip on the UK’s balls. Even if the UK formally leaves the EU, I expect little to change in practice. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/32 "2016-06-24T11:29:07Z")
If the EU survives at all, not something which is certain, or in its present form, which is unlikely. European leadership over the past few years has been characterised by a level of ineptness the class of 1914 never fell to. ---
**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/33 "2016-06-24T11:36:16Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > For reference, there was a huge amount of intelligent, rational analysis during the campaign, this was my favourite Leave argument: > > **Why I am voting Leave, by Professor Alan Johnson** > Which he then goes on to explain: > > [http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/](http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/) I think there is at least some degree of reasonableness in the complaints raised in this piece. In particular, this bit: [QUOTE=Johnson] [T]he EU political project has four built-in and fatal flaws: it is undemocratic, neoliberal, corrupt and a bad foreign policy actor in a dangerous world. [/QUOTE] It raises some often-heard complaints that all, to varying degree, highlight some substantial issues with the EU in its current incarnation. However, I think the idea that a ‘leave’ vote will serve to ameliorate these issues is mistaken. I think the issue was poorly framed in the first place: rather than ‘pro-EU’ and ‘against-EU’, an emphasis should have been on how to build a better EU, how to achieve the goals it once set for itself, even in the face of setbacks and outright failures in the wake of the financial crisis. Leaving now has, it seems to me, little potential for anybody to end up in a better state than before; the UK economy will surely take a hit, right-wing and nationalist movements everywhere will experience a rise in power (thus giving potential impetus to just those neoliberal tendencies Johnson criticizes), and, whatever else happens, we stand more fractionalized before problems on a global scale (climate change, migrant crises, etc.) that increasingly require a hand-in-hand approach if we even want to hope for a solution. Now, I certainly hope Johnson is right regarding the better alternative he envisions. But I fear he may not be. Rather, I think that, at least in the short- to mid-term, the very issues he cautions against may become much more pressing than they already are—there’s a reason much of the push for Leave came from nationalist right-wing quarters. This wasn’t a victory for more democracy; if anything, it’s proved how easy it is for a few demagogues to exploit the fears of the populace. (That’s not to say that there may not be reasonable arguments to Leave; but I sincerely doubt they’re what swayed the majority.) Anyway, it’s rare that I hope so fervently to be proven wrong by time. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/34 "2016-06-24T13:04:59Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > If the EU survives at all, not something which is certain, or in its present form, which is unlikely. The EU can survive even if all of the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands decide to leave. The newly joined eastern european states are pretty keen on keeping it together, and just them together with Germany / France still makes a formidable trade bloc. But sure the EU can and should do better, you can bet some overdue reforms will come out of this. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/35 "2016-06-24T14:02:17Z")
The EU is even less popular in E European states like Poland and Czech Republic than it was in the U.K. ---
**Author:** ![Donnerwetter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Donnerwetter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donnerwetter)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/36 "2016-06-24T14:09:13Z")
Almost 800,000 Poles live in the UK. They will be worried. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/37 "2016-06-24T14:10:05Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Didn’t Scotland nearly go independent a few years ago? Scotland voted 54-46 to stay in the Union a couple of years back. That was when oil was at roughly $90 per barrel with the assumption that it could easily reach $100+. Scotland relies heavily on oil revenue. It is basically a slightly richer(and slightly more diversified) version of Venezuela. Only when oil prices rebound substantially would I worry about Scotland becoming Independent. Sure, Brexit doesn’t aid the Union but neither is it anything like a death blow. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/38 "2016-06-24T14:12:54Z")
> [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](#): > > … It raises some often-heard complaints that all, to varying degree, highlight some substantial issues with the EU in its current incarnation. However, I think the idea that a ‘leave’ vote will serve to ameliorate these issues is mistaken. I think the issue was poorly framed in the first place: rather than ‘pro-EU’ and ‘against-EU’, an emphasis should have been on how to build a better EU, how to achieve the goals it once set for itself, even in the face of setbacks and outright failures in the wake of the financial crisis. > > Leaving now has, it seems to me, little potential for anybody to end up in a better state than before; the UK economy will surely take a hit, right-wing and nationalist movements everywhere will experience a rise in power (thus giving potential impetus to just those neoliberal tendencies Johnson criticizes), and, whatever else happens, we stand more fractionalized before problems on a global scale (climate change, migrant crises, etc.) that increasingly require a hand-in-hand approach if we even want to hope for a solution. > > Now, I certainly hope Johnson is right regarding the better alternative he envisions. But I fear he may not be. Rather, I think that, at least in the short- to mid-term, the very issues he cautions against may become much more pressing than they already are—there’s a reason much of the push for Leave came from nationalist right-wing quarters. This wasn’t a victory for more democracy; if anything, it’s proved how easy it is for a few demagogues to exploit the fears of the populace. (That’s not to say that there may not be reasonable arguments to Leave; but I sincerely doubt they’re what swayed the majority.) > > Anyway, it’s rare that I hope so fervently to be proven wrong by time. I haven’t been following this issue closely, in part because I suppose I just assumed that the “remain” side would prevail and the whole thing would blow over as just a non-event. But as an outsider looking in, the above seems like an excellent analysis, the principal part being the extent to which right-wing nativist xenophobia drove the outcome. The following seem like noteworthy facts: - World leaders generally supported the “remain” side; these included President Obama, Prime Minister Cameron who staked his political career on it, the Prime Minister of Canada, German chancellor Angela Merkel, and French president Francois Hollande. Donald Trump thinks the “leave” vote is terrific, which pretty much seals the deal on how stupid it is. - From what I have read, the “remain” side tended to be associated with a younger and more educated demographic, the “leave” side with low-information right-wing xenophobes. - Following the vote, the British pound plunged to a 30-year low. The Bank of England is struggling to stabilize the currency. - The vote has raised the Scottish independence question again, and another referendum is now possible, threatening the integrity of the UK itself. - Years of trade negotiations and economic uncertainty lie ahead. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/39 "2016-06-24T14:28:14Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > **JoseB** , the U.K. could find itself able to get better deals with non European powers. Speaking as a citizen of another country, I’d be very skeptical of my government negotiating a trade deal with the United Kingdom, inasmuch as the country has demonstrated a willingness to renege on its trade deals and appears to be in an alarming amount of resulting political turmoil. Best of luck dealing with other countries, I guess. T.M.'s post perfectly encapsulates the “leave” vote: he is literally saying the UK should get to keep everything good about the EU, but give nothing in return. It’s ludicrous. Why would anyone trust a country that takes that position? ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/40 "2016-06-24T14:46:27Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Speaking as a citizen of another country, I’d be very skeptical of my government negotiating a trade deal with the United Kingdom, inasmuch as the country has demonstrated a willingness to renege on its trade deals and appears to be in an alarming amount of resulting political turmoil. Best of luck dealing with other countries, I guess. > > T.M.'s post perfectly encapsulates the “leave” vote: he is literally saying the UK should get to keep everything good about the EU, but give nothing in return. It’s ludicrous. Why would anyone trust a country that takes that position? I’m sorry, what trade deals has it reneged on? That’s an odd way to describe the UK using the built-in mechanism of the original treaty for countries that wish to leave. That would be following the letter of the treaty, not reneging on it. And people have written Britain off before. We’re still here. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207.md?page=3)