# \#Brexit - whose next, whats next? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2016, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207 "2016-06-24T04:46:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/61 "2016-06-25T19:24:28Z")
> [@Yersenia\_Pestis](#): > > How of this vote was about raw fear of mass immigration (ie Syrian refugees)? > > Is this good for Russia? A divided Europe = weaker Europe and doesn’t that give the Russians more freedom to do reckless things like invade Ukraine/baltics? > > Here’s a conspiracy theory: the Russians want mass refugee crisis from Middle East (bonus points: they are scary Muslims!) into Europe to destroy its unity… The UK has already agreed to take genuine Syrian refugee’s direct from the camps on the Syrian border, by leaving the EU we can reduce our intake of economic migrants and offer more places to genuine Syrian refugee’s. The UK confirmed today that we will continue to give Europe military and security support Putin just by living unites Europe. He must be the worlds most despised man ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/62 "2016-06-25T19:30:11Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > politicians say that this can be easily solved This might take some small bit of work, don’t you think? ---
**Author:** ![T.M](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ad7895/32.png) [@T.M](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/T.M)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/63 "2016-06-25T19:41:47Z")
> [@Count\_Blucher](#): > > This might take some small bit of work, don’t you think? We already have an open border between northern and southern Ireland, it just needs an agreement to continue. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/64 "2016-06-25T20:38:38Z")
> [@T.M](#): > > We already have an open border between northern and southern Ireland, it just needs an agreement to continue. Except the Republic, as an EU member, can’t really have an open border with a non-EU state. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/65 "2016-06-25T20:50:15Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > Except the Republic, as an EU member, can’t really have an open border with a non-EU state. Exactly, its not going to be possible for the open border to continue, even if England and Ireland agree on it, the EU will not permit it, because an open border to NI could be used to get around EU customs and tariff restrictions. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/66 "2016-06-25T20:57:07Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > One of the more far-fetched scenarios that’s being discussed is “London as Singapore” i.e. it breaks off from the rest of Britain and re-joins the EU. Far-fetched, but in 10-15 years who knows? There will likely be a Scottish referendum in the next few years and while low oil prices may worry Scots I would guess that there is at least a decent chance of them leaving the UK. **There is also a possibility of Northern Ireland voting to join Ireland.** If either happens, the range of possibility of will expand and Londoners may well wonder if they are really better off shacked to the rest of England. Interesting times… Aren’t the majority of people in Northern Ireland Protestant? If so, I can’t imagine that they’d vote to reunify with the Republic of Ireland. Hell, the leading political party in Northern Ireland is still, I believe, the Democratic Unionists Party isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/67 "2016-06-25T20:59:58Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Aren’t the majority of people in Northern Ireland Protestant? Not any more, 48% protestant. They used to be a majority, but there’s that whole catholics can’t use birth control thing. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/68 "2016-06-25T21:06:17Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Not any more, 48% protestant. They used to be a majority, but there’s that whole catholics can’t use birth control thing. Politically protestants just about still hold a majority. Protestants still outnumber Catholics for the time-being. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/69 "2016-06-25T21:17:12Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Reform of the EU is certainly something which should happen. Meanwhile the petition on UK parliament that I cited has gone from 500,000 to 900,000 signatures in four hours. Here’s the cite which you can’t argue with. > [EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum - Petitions](https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215) > > This referendum is not legally binding, parliament will decide and the political landscape will change a lot in the next two years. Hint, the UK will not leave the EU. 2.5M signatures now. I really think it’s possible this vote will be reversed. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/70 "2016-06-25T21:30:25Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > 2.5M signatures now. I really think it’s possible this vote will be reversed. Get back to me when it reaches 17.4 million votes. This vote will not be reversed. I can see the UK try to get some sort of favourable free-trade deal, quite similar to Norway’s relationship with the EU. This may be spun as the UK begging to return with our tail between our legs, reversing Brexit, or as it should be accurately described: looking for a mutually beneficial trade deal without most of the political integration. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/71 "2016-06-25T21:49:54Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Get back to me when it reaches 17.4 million votes. OK. See you tomorrow! 😃 > [@](#): > > This vote will not be reversed. I can see the UK try to get some sort of favourable free-trade deal, quite similar to Norway’s relationship with the EU. This may be spun as the UK begging to return with our tail between our legs, reversing Brexit, or as it should be accurately described: looking for a mutually beneficial trade deal without most of the political integration. What prevents holding another referendum? ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/72 "2016-06-25T22:06:26Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Get back to me when it reaches 17.4 million votes. > > This vote will not be reversed. I can see the UK try to get some sort of favourable free-trade deal, quite similar to Norway’s relationship with the EU. This may be spun as the UK begging to return with our tail between our legs, reversing Brexit, or as it should be accurately described: looking for a mutually beneficial trade deal without most of the political integration. I think it more likely that we’re in for some harsh terms from Brussels _pour décourager les autres._ ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/73 "2016-06-25T22:07:05Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > OK. See you tomorrow! 😃 > > What prevents holding another referendum? The thing that prevents holding another referendum is the political fall-out at the next General Election. I would guess barely 1 in 10 MP’s would be re-elected\* if those MP’s voted for another referendum\*. Plus, the distrust of the political class in general would reach dangerous proportions. The discontent surrounding the EU/political class would not disappear just because Remainers won a second referendum. A 2nd referendum would see the populist right vote double. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/74 "2016-06-25T22:17:03Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > I think it more likely that we’re in for some harsh terms from Brussels _pour décourager les autres._ That may well be true. If so then thats a black mark against the EU imo. I was just pointing out that I believe a sizeable majority of both the UK Parliament and electorate would be willing to get behind a free-trade deal with the EU without the political add-ons. A face-saving deal by Parliament/EU can be found if the will was present. A deal that Parliament would prefer to take instead of going for a 2nd referendum. ---
**Author:** ![Hiker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3be4f8/32.png) [@Hiker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hiker)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/75 "2016-06-25T22:18:42Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Exactly, its not going to be possible for the open border to continue, even if England and Ireland agree on it, the EU will not permit it, because an open border to NI could be used to get around EU customs and tariff restrictions. Well - the UK could join the Schengen Area as Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have. That would keep their borders with Ireland open. I just doubt they will want that. ---
**Author:** ![Hiker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3be4f8/32.png) [@Hiker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hiker)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/76 "2016-06-25T22:25:39Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > I think it more likely that we’re in for some harsh terms from Brussels _pour décourager les autres._ That sentiment sure exists in some quarters in Brussels right now. Alas I do not believe it will last. At the end of the day the EU will offer the UK the same deal that it has offered other non-EU states before. Not a better one, but not a worse one either. There will be some kind of trade agreement similar to what Norway has today. Not terribly attractive for Britain to be sure, but nothing I would call “harsh terms”. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/77 "2016-06-25T22:30:34Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > …I believe a sizeable majority of both the UK Parliament and electorate would be willing to get behind a free-trade deal with the EU without the political add-ons… I agree, but I think they’re going to make an example of us. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/78 "2016-06-25T22:34:54Z")
> [@Yersenia\_Pestis](#): > > How of this vote was about raw fear of mass immigration (ie Syrian refugees)? > > Is this good for Russia? A divided Europe = weaker Europe and doesn’t that give the Russians more freedom to do reckless things like invade Ukraine/baltics? > > Here’s a conspiracy theory: the Russians want mass refugee crisis from Middle East (bonus points: they are scary Muslims!) into Europe to destroy its unity… I don’t know if Putin necessarily planned or foresaw the refugee crisis, but now that it has unfolded and now that he has had an opportunity to see how it has created antipathy among Europeans, there’s no question that he sees the potential to exploit the crisis for his own benefit, where the opportunity presents itself. However, I think Putin is probably acting more as an occasional opportunist, rather an agent who is actively orchestrating chaos. A prolonged intervention in Syria will haunt Putin and Russia, not just Europe. ---
**Author:** ![mascaroni](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dc4da7/32.png) [@mascaroni](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mascaroni)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/79 "2016-06-25T22:37:27Z")
> [@Hiker](#): > > That sentiment sure exists in some quarters in Brussels right now.\*\* Alas I do not believe it will last.\*\* [My bolding] You’d rather it did last then? ---
**Author:** ![Hiker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/3be4f8/32.png) [@Hiker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hiker)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2016, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207/80 "2016-06-25T22:40:01Z")
> [@mascaroni](#): > > [My bolding] > You’d rather it did last then? Absolutely not! That sentiment comes from a (perhaps understandable) feeling of disappointment. I’d prefer politics to be made based on rational thought rather than gut feelings. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brexit-whose-next-whats-next/758207.md?page=5)