# Bricker, are we on or not? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [April 17, 2006, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965 "2006-04-17T10:45:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/1 "2006-04-17T10:45:33Z")
**Bricker** , over a year ago you offered a [bet](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5765624&postcount=25) on whether the US would attack Iran or not. [I took the bet](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5765666&postcount=27), but you never responded. [I pointed that out](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5842163&postcount=7), and [you asked me to refresh your memory](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5845797&postcount=31), and added that we were “not on for any bet unless I’ve positively acknowledged it”. I [refreshed your memory](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5846242&postcount=34), but again you didn’t respond. I assumed we were off. A month ago, you [seemed to indicate that we were on after all](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7171270&postcount=121). [I asked for clarification](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7290120&postcount=147) but didn’t receive a response. I’m not trying to weasel out of the bet (in fact, if I’m wrong and the US doesn’t invade Iran I’ll be happy enough that I will consider the $100 a very small price to pay indeed), but I would like unambiguous confirmation of whether we are on or not. I would email you, but your address isn’t in your profile, so this thread is my last attempt. So: If I haven’t received an unambiguous reply along the lines of “Yes, **Priceguy** , the bet is definitely on” in this thread prior to May 17th 2006, I will consider the bet to be off and I will not pay out nor demand any money come January 2009. I think that’s fair under the circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/2 "2006-04-17T11:16:42Z")
[QUOTE=Priceguy] **Bricker** , over a year ago you offered a [bet](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5765624&postcount=25) on whether the US would attack Iran or not. [I took the bet](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5765666&postcount=27), but you never responded. [I pointed that out](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5842163&postcount=7), and [you asked me to refresh your memory](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5845797&postcount=31), and added that we were “not on for any bet unless I’ve positively acknowledged it”. I [refreshed your memory](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5846242&postcount=34), but again you didn’t respond. I assumed we were off. A month ago, you [seemed to indicate that we were on after all](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7171270&postcount=121). [I asked for clarification](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7290120&postcount=147) but didn’t receive a response. I’m not trying to weasel out of the bet (in fact, if I’m wrong and the US doesn’t invade Iran I’ll be happy enough that I will consider the $100 a very small price to pay indeed), but I would like unambiguous confirmation of whether we are on or not. I would email you, but your address isn’t in your profile, so this thread is my last attempt. So: If I haven’t received an unambiguous reply along the lines of “Yes, **Priceguy** , the bet is definitely on” in this thread prior to May 17th 2006, I will consider the bet to be off and I will not pay out nor demand any money come January 2009. I think that’s fair under the circumstances. [/QUOTE] Yes, Priceguy, the bet is definitely on. ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/3 "2006-04-17T11:19:22Z")
Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/4 "2006-04-17T15:18:53Z")
> [@The Bet](#): > > If US military forces attack government-controlled or civilian targets within the internationally recognized borders of Iran, without the permission of the internationally-recognized government of Iran, between 27 January 2005 and 20 January 2009, the INVASION BET wins. If this does not happen, the NO INVASION BET wins on 20 January 2005 and is payable then. > > The burden of proof is on the INVASION BET side: that is, there must be credible evidence of the action, reports in major US media. No claim that black-ops special forces blew up a bridge in Tehran and disappeared into the night before anyone could prove they were there. > > I will take the NO INVASION BET for $200, even money. If you want me to cover any part of that with you, speak up. For those of us watching at home: **Bricker** says the US will overtly take action against Iran, we’ll at least blow something up using a bomb with our logo on it. **Priceguy** says, “Nu-uh!” To clarify, for the INVASION to have taken place, we don’t necessarily need American boots tramping all over Iran, we just need to blow something up in Iran without her permission. That it? ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/5 "2006-04-17T15:21:13Z")
[QUOTE=Inigo Montoya] For those of us watching at home: **Bricker** says the US will overtly take action against Iran, we’ll at least blow something up using a bomb with our logo on it. **Priceguy** says, “Nu-uh!” To clarify, for the INVASION to have taken place, we don’t necessarily need American boots tramping all over Iran, we just need to blow something up in Iran without her permission. That it? [/QUOTE] You got the bet the wrong way around ( **Bricker** is the one saying “nu-uh”), but apart from that it sounds about right. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/6 "2006-04-17T15:35:46Z")
**Priceguy** says the US will overtly take action against Iran, we’ll at least blow something up using a bomb with our logo on it. **Bricker** says, “Nu-uh!” Ok…of course, you realize you’re both going to be wrong. I don’t know how, but Bush will find a way to make this not be a black & white operation. Couple questions. If one or more of the 200+ Iranian martyr volounteers delivers a package to US oil and Iran thumbs her nose at us and says, “Yeah! There’s more where that came from! Bring it on, infidel!” does that count as “permission” to invade Iran? And what if something blows up–say, a nuclear reactor innocently located in a hardened underground bunker–because it was hit with a tactical nuke bunker buster (which Bush promises the US would _never_ use in a first strike)? And this happens in October of 2008, and the US officially denies culpability. But then in August 2009 it Cheney has to come out and say, “Oh _that_ explosion in Iran? Well yes, we did that. But we thought it was a baby milk formula factory.” Are we going by the date of the event? Or are we going by when the administration is forced to admit responsibility? In which case, how will anyone really know when the bet is over? Because something _is_ going to blow up in Iran. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/7 "2006-04-17T15:36:34Z")
Wow 100 Priceguy!! Now granted this might seem like a somewhat chunky sum to mere pobes like myself, but is is interesting to see the how the "big dogs" like you and Bricker play. Guys who laughlingly light their barbecue grills with with 20. bills and use Laphroaig single malt as lighter fluid. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/8 "2006-04-17T15:37:40Z")
[QUOTE=Inigo Montoya] package to US oil [/QUOTE] Ahem… **S** oil ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/9 "2006-04-17T15:41:16Z")
[QUOTE=Inigo Montoya] If one or more of the 200+ Iranian martyr volounteers delivers a package to US oil and Iran thumbs her nose at us and says, “Yeah! There’s more where that came from! Bring it on, infidel!” does that count as “permission” to invade Iran? [/quote] Obviously not, in my view. The bet says nothing about whether Iran started it or not. > [@](#): > > And what if something blows up–say, a nuclear reactor innocently located in a hardened underground bunker–because it was hit with a tactical nuke bunker buster (which Bush promises the US would _never_ use in a first strike)? And this happens in October of 2008, and the US officially denies culpability. But then in August 2009 it Cheney has to come out and say, “Oh _that_ explosion in Iran? Well yes, we did that. But we thought it was a baby milk formula factory.” If there is “credible evidence of the action, reports in major US media” prior to January 20th 2009, I win. Otherwise, **Bricker** wins. If Cheney admits culpability later, I won’t be asking for any money back. But I’ll feel better. ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/10 "2006-04-17T15:46:34Z")
[QUOTE=astro] Wow 100 Priceguy!! Now granted this might seem like a somewhat chunky sum to mere pobes like myself, but is is interesting to see the how the "big dogs" like you and Bricker play. Guys who laughlingly light their barbecue grills with with 20. bills and use Laphroaig single malt as lighter fluid. [/QUOTE] Hey, if you want to borrow some money, all you gotta do is ask. ---
**Author:** ![UrbanChic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/9dc877/32.png) [@UrbanChic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UrbanChic)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/11 "2006-04-17T15:53:50Z")
[QUOTE=astro] mere **pobes** like myself, [/QUOTE] Nice Pit reference! ---
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/12 "2006-04-17T21:34:17Z")
(bolding added) > [@Bricker](#): > > If US military forces attack government-controlled or civilian targets within the internationally recognized borders of Iran, without the permission of the internationally-recognized government of Iran, between 27 January 2005 and 20 January 2009, the INVASION BET wins. If this does not happen, the **NO INVASION BET wins on 20 January 2005** and is payable then. I’m not involved in this, but I’m confused about something. Maybe I’m just dense, but shouldn’t the “no invasion” bet pay off in 2009, not 2005? Especially since the 2005 date has passed? ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/13 "2006-04-17T21:43:23Z")
It’s either a typo or some kind of incredibly devious legalistic trick. I’m leaning towards the former. ---
**Author:** ![No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9e8a1a/32.png) [@No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_longer_shall_I_lurk)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/14 "2006-04-18T00:28:48Z")
I would also like to participate in this bet (on the side of Bricker) - I can provide all needed details to PriceGuy by PM/Email - are you on? ---
**Author:** ![dnooman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/839c29/32.png) [@dnooman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dnooman)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/15 "2006-04-18T04:22:13Z")
**Priceguy** can I get a mention when you post your victory thread? I’m a bit attention starved. **Bricker** can we agree on a “you were right” thread in a serious tone, when the bet is concluded? I’d write one in response to all opponents on that thread with you mentioned specifically, and you’d write one to the proponents in the thread with myself and **Priceguy** mentioned specifically? Or is that asking too much? ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/16 "2006-04-18T09:26:50Z")
[QUOTE=No longer shall I lurk] I would also like to participate in this bet (on the side of Bricker) - I can provide all needed details to PriceGuy by PM/Email - are you on? [/QUOTE] If you’d read the links in my original post, you’d already know the answer to that question. > [@dnooman](#): > > **Priceguy** can I get a mention when you post your victory thread? I’m a bit attention starved. You mean _if_ I post my victory thread. I believe I will win, but I am by no means certain (how could I possibly be?), and I mainly took the bet because damnit, _someone_ had to put their money where other people’s mouths were. But sure, I’ll mention you. In some capacity. Somewhere. In some font and type size. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/17 "2006-04-18T12:14:23Z")
[QUOTE=dnooman] **Priceguy** can I get a mention when you post your victory thread? I’m a bit attention starved. **Bricker** can we agree on a “you were right” thread in a serious tone, when the bet is concluded? I’d write one in response to all opponents on that thread with you mentioned specifically, and you’d write one to the proponents in the thread with myself and **Priceguy** mentioned specifically? Or is that asking too much? [/QUOTE] Of course. The thing that produces over-the-top bragaddocio after winning a bet is over-the-top hyperbole before the bet. When a guy says, in essence, that he’s looked at the situation and the odds, and thinks he’s picked a good bet… but acknowledges he’s not sure.. then there’s nothing to crow about. If, on the other hand, this proposition had been filled with “There’s no way we won’t nuke Iran!” rhetoric then the result of winning a bet about not nuking Iran is a bit more unrestrained. ---
**Author:** ![No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9e8a1a/32.png) [@No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_longer_shall_I_lurk)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2006, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/18 "2006-04-19T00:23:16Z")
[QUOTE=Priceguy] If you’d read the links in my original post, you’d already know the answer to that question. [/QUOTE] Sorry if I’m being really thick, but where? ---
**Author:** ![No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9e8a1a/32.png) [@No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_longer_shall_I_lurk)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2006, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/19 "2006-04-19T00:23:33Z")
[QUOTE=Priceguy] If you’d read the links in my original post, you’d already know the answer to that question. [/QUOTE] Sorry if I’m being really thick, but where? (I did read them… ) ---
**Author:** ![No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9e8a1a/32.png) [@No\_longer\_shall\_I\_lurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_longer_shall_I_lurk)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2006, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965/20 "2006-04-19T00:36:58Z")
Oh, and Bricker, I might be interesting in buying some betting options from you (i.e. so I can sell my $100 stake to other dopers for, say, $110)… [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bricker-are-we-on-or-not/352965.md?page=2)