Bridge hand - what are the chances of making 7NT with these hands?

I should explain that my hand was actually:

S AT
H ATx
D AKTx
C KJTx

so I valued it as 20 points in NT (because of the 2 Tens.)
I only mentioned the T hearts to begin with as i wanted to focus on the play (and that was the only Ten likely to matter.)

So the bidding went:

2NT (20-22) 3C (Stayman)
3D (no major) 4NT (Blackwood)
5S (3 Aces) 5NT (Blackwood)
6H (2 Kings) 7NT

haha I wondered about that - Goren (remember him?) says you’re a full point short of a grand slam. Every card pulls its weight though, including the ten of hearts.

An auction that gets to 7 clubs would be impressive. Not all partnerships have the tools for that.

I was going to ask about the bidding too, so thanks for posting it. It seems to me that it renders a lot of the foregoing discussion somewhat moot, in that on that auction, your partner could only be certain of 11 top tricks (4 aces, 4 kings, and his 3 queens) - although actually, given your opening bid he was perhaps also counting on you to have a queen and a jack, to make 13 tricks. I wonder if he would have said that, had you gone down! But what I take from it is that when bidding a grand in NT, there is really no way of knowing what your percentage chance of success is beforehand with this type of hand, where you are pretty much solely relying on honours rather than length to win your tricks. If I’m right, then maybe that argues for being a little more conservative and stopping in 6NT? Put another way: you have no way of knowing before dummy goes down if your odds are 50%, 60%, or 70%, so bidding 7NT is a gamble. Or am I wrong? Actually, I think this is basically the same point merrick already made.

As K364 says, tough to get to 7C which may actually be the best spot, but perhaps opening with 1C could get you there?

Charles Goren* was right to say we were short (actually 37 points, not 35 is recommended for 7NT)
However it is reasonable to add a point for a couple of Tens in NT (and I did have all 4…)

*I’m pretty old - also I read historical bridge books! :nerd_face:

Actually you can factor in both points and length for a NT contract.

If partner opens 1NT (showing 12-14 points), I would bid 3NT with

S xx
H xx
D xx
C AKQxxxx

relying on the club suit for 7 tricks.

Of course the main reason to bid 7NT is the combined point count, but (as mentioned above), the scoring system may make the difference.

Thanks, I realise that, hence I included “with this type of hand” - meaning in this case, both you and partner had a balanced hand, so no source of extra tricks by length. You basically had to do it on points only - barring the possible finesse or elimination plays already discussed.

ETA: contrast that with if, on the hand you just posted, your partner opened 2NT - if you then used Blackwood to determine they have 3 Aces and 3 Kings, you can bid 7NT with almost complete confidence (you could still go down if one defender has 4 or more clubs to the Jack, but that’s pretty unlikely).

FETA: I know you know this - just posting to show my understanding!