# Brokered GOP convention? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 18, 2012, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202 "2012-02-18T00:14:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/21 "2012-02-18T18:45:09Z")
I put it at a 20 chance -enough to be real, not enough to bet on without damned good odds. I see Ron Paul tossing his delegates in a direction to give his son a slot, not himself. Ron is old, but if he can position his kid for future greatness he will. Rand does not have the baggage of his dad. Think about it - Romney / Paul - with the Paul being Rand. That would get energetic youthful Paul followers a reason to back Mr. Centrist. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/22 "2012-02-18T19:16:22Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Trouble with your premise is that the leadership of the Republican Party, your father’s Oldsmobile, have lost control. Their devil’s bargain with the Troglodyte Right has come unraveled. As some talking head (don’t remember who) pointed out recently, the Republican Party is a three-headed beast, comprising Libertarians, social conservatives, and the wealthy elite. Right now, each of those three heads has its own candidate, and none of them can muster better than 50% of the primary vote. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/23 "2012-02-18T19:24:15Z")
No, no brokered convention this time. But next time, for sure! Or, a broken one, at least! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/24 "2012-02-18T20:18:01Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Anyone remember that Obama/Hillary brokered convention in 2008? Thing is that the Obama-Clinton divide did not represent any fundamental divisions within the party. Plus there were just two of them, either of whom most thought could win, both of whom were capable of getting people enthusiastic. This is different on both counts. You have one candidate with the money and organization to stay in and probably to win, but no one is excited about him. One who may very well take some southern states including Texas (Gingrich); one the darling of the culture war conservatives; and a libertarian one hanging in there picking some up to boot. Four who may last out all rounds of the fight. Splitting up between four means a long slog to get to a majority, if it is gotten to. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/25 "2012-02-18T20:30:02Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Yeah, and I keep saying that. > > But what is the actual probability? 1%? 0.1%? 0.00001%? Who can calculate it? What’s the point of doing so? It’s never happened before so there’s not any precedent to fall back on. For the purposes of this kind of discussion, the only meaningful way to state the possibility is 0%. A brokered convention is a delusion by bored reporters, disgruntled voters, and spectacle seekers. It has no reality unless something happens that cannot be predicted in any way. Why bother? What you have kept saying is that there is a zero percent chance of a brokered convention. Now you’re saying there is a remote chance of a brokered convention. A remote chance is not a zero percent chance. And why do you say there has never been a brokered convention? There have been plenty of them. If you accept a technical definition, there were brokered conventions in 1976 and 1984. If you go by the more general definition, there were brokered conventions in 1948 and 1952. Personally, I’d rate the possibility of a brokered convention at around two percent - very unlikely but not impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/26 "2012-02-18T20:33:09Z")
When you’ve got two candidates, it’s darned near certain that one of them will get a clear majority. A small majority, maybe, but a clear one. When you’ve got _four_ significant candidates, though, it’s almost impossible for one of them to get a clear majority. And that’s where the convention comes in. Yeah, it’s quite possible that one of them will get knocked out on Super Tuesday, but three of them? Don’t hold your breath. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/27 "2012-02-18T20:35:23Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Thing is that the Obama-Clinton divide did not represent any fundamental divisions within the party. Plus there were just two of them, either of whom most thought could win, both of whom were capable of getting people enthusiastic. > > This is different on both counts. You have one candidate with the money and organization to stay in and probably to win, but no one is excited about him. One who may very well take some southern states including Texas (Gingrich); one the darling of the culture war conservatives; and a libertarian one hanging in there picking some up to boot. Four who may last out all rounds of the fight. > > Splitting up between four means a long slog to get to a majority, if it is gotten to. Another big factor is that neither Obama or Clinton was facing an incumbent. The Republican candidates were squaring off against each other for much of the same time the Democrats were. This is a big advantage for the Democrats in 2012. Obama has the nomination virtually locked up. He doesn’t have to waste any resources in the primaries and doesn’t have any challengers that are dividing his base. He can just sit back while Santorum and Gingrich and Paul knock Romney around. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/28 "2012-02-18T20:40:48Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > What you have kept saying is that there is a zero percent chance of a brokered convention. Now you’re saying there is a remote chance of a brokered convention. A remote chance is not a zero percent chance. I’m saying there is a non-zero chance only if a catastrophe happens. Real bookies take the bets off the table if that occurs. > [@](#): > > And why do you say there has never been a brokered convention? There have been plenty of them. If you accept a technical definition, there were brokered conventions in 1976 and 1984. If you go by the more general definition, there were brokered conventions in 1948 and 1952. No, I said there’s no precedent for a leading candidate to be hit by a meteor (or any equivalent) before the convention. But brokered conventions don’t happen either. There hasn’t been a second ballot at any convention since the modern primary system was inaugurated. > [@](#): > > Personally, I’d rate the possibility of a brokered convention at around two percent - very unlikely but not impossible. You lack the courage of my convictions. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/29 "2012-02-18T21:33:00Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > We live in interesting times. Sure, the prospect of Santorum actually winning causes my Nixon to slam shut so tight I’m not sure I can take an Agnew. And its not that sheer money cannot win, its far too early for that! Tantalizing prospect, though, I think you will admit. Funniest political metaphor of the week. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/30 "2012-02-18T22:31:01Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > No, I said there’s no precedent for a leading candidate to be hit by a meteor (or any equivalent) before the convention. Is a bullet the equivalent of a meteor? Because Robert Kennedy was the leading candidate in 1968 when he was hit by one of those. There’s your precedent. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2012, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/31 "2012-02-18T23:50:36Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Is a bullet the equivalent of a meteor? Because Robert Kennedy was the leading candidate in 1968 when he was hit by one of those. There’s your precedent. Good example. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/32 "2012-02-19T02:42:05Z")
Intersting article in today’s WSJ ([teaser](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577229281456013096.html?KEYWORDS=gop+primary+math) - the whole thing is behind the wall) A major point of the article is that this GOP primary there are “more states that will divvy up their delegates proportionately, allowing second- and third-place finishers to claim a share and keep their candidacies alive.” Add that to the fact that the party is not rallying around any one … or even two candidates, and they conclude that “it’s possible, though very unlikely, that no candidate will have cinched the 1,114 delegates needed to assure the nomination.” In the context of many states awarding proportionately it must be noted that while the individual not-Romneys have had their fortunes rise and fall … and rise again … Romney’s popularity has been consistent … pretty flat. (If only his positions were as consistent he might be doing better.) He may win some states but in many of those victories he still won’t leave with even a majority of the delegates. Here’s [Reuter’s take](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/18/us-usa-campaign-convention-idUSTRE81H04520120218) btw: > [@](#): > > A Romney loss to Santorum in Michigan, the state where he was born and where his father was governor, would only intensify the talk about a weak Republican field and feed demands for someone else as the party’s candidate to challenge Obama. > > “It’s hard for me to see how Romney rights the ship if he loses Michigan,” said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. “There is no level of spin that can overcome that disaster.” > > Michigan will set the table for “Super Tuesday,” the March 6 jackpot when 10 states hold Republican nominating contests. A loss for Romney in Michigan would raise serious doubts over whether he can rally enough support to have a big day on Super Tuesday and make a big move toward clinching the nomination. … > > … This year in many states, the delegate count is proportional to the vote they receive in a nominating contest, instead of winner-take-all. That means a candidate who does not come in first in a particular state could still pick up some delegates to the convention. > > On Super Tuesday there is the potential for Romney and Santorum, along with the other two candidates Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, to split the delegates, making it harder for anyone to get to the magic number of 1,144 before Republicans pick their candidate in August. > > South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint told CNN the way delegates are divided means “it could very well go to the convention.” > > Once the convention rolls around, the candidates could do some horse-trading to try to peel away delegates from their rivals and get to the magic number. But if that fails, then party regulars could try to draft someone else into the race. … ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/33 "2012-02-19T03:31:56Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Is a bullet the equivalent of a meteor? Because Robert Kennedy was the leading candidate in 1968 when he was hit by one of those. There’s your precedent. Commonly believed but not actually correct. When Kennedy was assasinated, [Humphrey had more delegates and McCarthy had received more total votes in the primaries.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968#Contest) In fact, the way the Democratic Party process was designed at the time, it’s at least arguable that RFK couldn’t have gotten the nomination on the first ballot even if he had lived. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/34 "2012-02-19T03:47:01Z")
Something not explicitly mentioned: Paul is all about himself, he’ll never drop out “for the good of the party”, the others would. (not saying they don’t have huge egos) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/35 "2012-02-19T03:51:19Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Commonly believed but not actually correct. When Kennedy was assasinated, [Humphrey had more delegates and McCarthy had received more total votes in the primaries.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968#Contest) > > In fact, the way the Democratic Party process was designed at the time, it’s at least arguable that RFK couldn’t have gotten the nomination on the first ballot even if he had lived. It’s hard to predict. Kennedy was ahead of McCarthy and behind Humphrey in delegates and he was ahead of Humphrey and behind McCarthy in primary votes, so it’s hard to claim any to the three men was clearly in the lead in June. I’m basing it on the perception that support for Kennedy seemed to be growing while the support for McCarthy was fading and the support for Humphrey was at most holding in place. McCarthy had entered the race early and established a lead. Kennedy entered late and had virtually caught up with McCarthy at the time of his death. So the trend appeared clear that Kennedy was beating McCarthy (and McCarthy didn’t recover his lead even after Kennedy’s death). I’ll agree that Humphrey was a much stronger contender. It’s hard to compare Humphrey’s and Kennedy’s positions because they were essentially running two parallel campaigns towards a common goal. Kennedy was running as the “outsider” (through the primaries and appealing to the voters) and Humphrey was running as the “insider” (through the party leadership). Without knowing who would have won, it’s hard to tell who had a better strategy for the race. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/36 "2012-02-19T05:02:39Z")
Romney is in serious trouble if he loses Michigan. A brokered convention? It never happens. Until it does. I said Gingrich and Santorum would get laughed out of the running and here they are. So I’m making no other predictions than that if Romney loses Michigan, there’s a serious, serious problem. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/37 "2012-02-19T05:53:58Z")
Its hard to know what to root for! So many choices! I’ll take the 3D X-box holodeck! No, wait, the pile of hundred dollar bills and the supermodel! Or maybe… ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/38 "2012-02-19T06:01:51Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Something not explicitly mentioned: Paul is all about himself, he’ll never drop out “for the good of the party”, the others would. (not saying they don’t have huge egos) Paul is all about the libertarian message. He has a platform to speak so he is taking advantage of it. Why should he drop out to help out a candidate that has about as much in common with him as Barack Obama? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/39 "2012-02-19T21:58:35Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Romney is in serious trouble if he loses Michigan. > > A brokered convention? It never happens. Until it does. > > I said Gingrich and Santorum would get laughed out of the running and here they are. So I’m making no other predictions than that if Romney loses Michigan, there’s a serious, serious problem. I completely agree with you about Michigan. If that happens he is in trouble. The thing about a brokered convention is I really don’t see Gingrich or Paul taking many delegates in any of the contests. Santorum is the only one with a chance to knock Romney off IMO. I really think the only way for it get to the convention is if there are at least 3 viable candidates. In the fall I was certain Romney was assured of the nomination. At this point I would have to say there is an increasing chance he may not get there. If Santorum pulls out a win in Michigan and keeps his lead in Ohio then I would have to say he has a good shot at winning most of the primaries in the South and Midwest. Looking over [the list](http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/) of primary dates, if he manages to make it to the Texas primary with some momentum and money I think he has a good shot at winning there. I could see that causing serious turmoil. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2012, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202/40 "2012-02-19T22:13:51Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Paul is all about the libertarian message. He has a platform to speak so he is taking advantage of it. Why should he drop out to help out a candidate that has about as much in common with him as Barack Obama? A convention-floor-fight wouldn’t help the libertarian brand/message any. Quite the reverse. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/brokered-gop-convention/613202.md?page=3)