# Bush Admin planning post-Labor-Day "product rollout" of war-with-Iran hysteria? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 30, 2007, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520 "2007-08-30T17:21:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/61 "2007-08-30T22:53:06Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] First off, the “surgical” air strike is a bit of military fantasy. Civilians will die, period, full stop. Absent a declaration of war, that’s murder. And a strike on a nuclear facility? All that radioactive shit, turned to dust and scattered to the winds? [/QUOTE] Well, that is exactly why I put it in quotes. I don’t think much good could come of it, and I’m pretty damn sure much that is bad will. But it won’t lead to a “Guns of August” style war. The US has, often to its great shame, bombed its share of countries in recent history, and we’ve gotten away with it every time-- no war unless we decide it will be war. Lybia, Serbia, Iraq (multiple times). ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/62 "2007-08-30T22:57:09Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Why not? The Japanese did. Were they “crazy”? In a way, yes, they believed in their own exceptionalism, that their “samarai spirit” would overcome the material advantage enjoyed by the corrupt gai-jin Were they crazy? [/QUOTE] Apples to oranges…and a touch of hindsight. The Japanese may or may not have been crazy, but in purely military calculation terms they simply miscalculated our response. We hadn’t really been to war very often, our military capabilities at the time were fairly poor and the miscalculation was with our POTENTIAL and our reaction. Also, the Japanese were a hell of a lot closer in military capability to the US at that time than…well, than anyone in the world is to us today. Let alone the Iranians. Really, there IS no question in terms of a set piece type war at this point. The US has amply displayed its capabilities in this regard…and I don’t think there is even some tribesman in Outer Mongolia who would be surprised at our reaction should Iran put an army in the field. [QUOTE=elucidator] Islamic fundamentalists believe that Allah hates us as much as they do, that supernatural forces will come to their aid. Is that crazy? Hugh Betcha! Are there Islamic fundamentalists in positions of power in Iran? I daresay. [/QUOTE] Well…assuming you really believe that then you should be all for the US doing whatever it takes to keep these madmen from getting a nuke, ehe? I mean…if they are stupid enough and crazy enough to try and take the US head on conventionally when our military is DESIGNED for that, how much worse will they be if they get a nuke? What will stop them from immediately launching it at Israel as soon as its in their hot little hands? Personally I don’t believe they are so irrationally insane as all that. Putting their military in the field against the US is the same level of nuttyness as tossing a nuke at Israel. Seriously, there is no point continuing this back and forth. If you want to bet on this (gentlemans bet for bragging rights or whatever) then lets simply do that…and wait and see. I’ll put my statement here in plain language: Iran will NOT put an army in the field against the US. The US will NOT invade Iran. There will be no general war between Iran and the US before Bush et al are getting hit in the rear by the door swinging shut. -XT ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/63 "2007-08-30T22:57:19Z")
**John** Well, OK, then…are we in agreement that talk of a “surgical strike” against Iran is crazy? Are we constitutionally permitted to impeach on the basis that the President is batshit pizza? Will you sign our petition? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/64 "2007-08-30T23:10:33Z")
**xt** , I know how you constantly love to boast about your “Invincible Forces” but, as much as I hate to tell you (not really) what you currently have is [**A Broken Army**](http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/07/korb_testimony.html). Hell, forget Iran, The Netherlands might be too much to take on at the moment – again, short of going nuclear. And you tell me, who “wins” if you do? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/65 "2007-08-30T23:12:52Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Well, OK, then…are we in agreement that talk of a “surgical strike” against Iran is crazy? Are we constitutionally permitted to impeach on the basis that the President is batshit pizza? Will you sign our petition [/QUOTE] No, I don’t agree that a ‘surgical strike’ against Iran is crazy. I think its inadvised at this time…but its not crazy. And I don’t think it would be an impeachable offense if the President ordered such a strike. I didn’t think Clinton should be impeached for launching such strikes against Iraq either. -XT ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/66 "2007-08-30T23:15:28Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] xt, I know you love to boast about your “Invincible Forces” but, as much as I hate to tell you (not really) what you currently have is A Broken Army. [/QUOTE] Apples to oranges comparison Red…but you know, its not really worth talking to you about this kind of stuff. Just keep telling yourself that the US military is a broken reed. I’m sure it will be a comfort to you. -XT ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/67 "2007-08-30T23:17:24Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] No, I don’t agree that a ‘surgical strike’ against Iran is crazy. I think its inadvised [sic] at this time…but its not crazy. [/QUOTE] Of course not. Nothing the US does would ever be – in your eyes anyway. Rah rah! US #1! ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/68 "2007-08-30T23:18:25Z")
Just as a benchmark on what can be seriously suggested: (From [Wyzant: Expert Tutors at Affordable Prices](http://www.hpol.org/jfk/cuban/) > [@](#): > > Tape 31.2, October 19, 9:45 am: JFK discusses various military options and possible consequences with the Joint Chiefs of Staff: > > Joint Chiefs chairman General Maxwell Taylor states that the JCS was initially agreed on military action (air strike) along with the blockade. But, he expresses concern about the political impact especially on our alliances, while admitting that all the sites would probably not be destroyed [1:50]. > > JFK concludes that an air strike would give the USSR “a clear line” to take Berlin - the way they took Hungary after the 1956 Suez invasion. [3:30] He states that our allies would think of us as “trigger-happy Americans” who lost Berlin because we did not have the guts to endure the situation in Cuba. Cuba is 5 to 6,000 miles from Europe he argues, and “they don’t give a damn about it… This is a very satisfactory position from their point of view.” [4:10] > > JFK states that an air strike would neutralize the missiles but would likely force the USSR to take Berlin “which leaves me only one afternative which is to fire nuclear weapons - which is a hell of an afternative - to begin a nuclear exchange.” [5:15] “I don’t think we have any satisfactory alternatives,” JFK concludes, because the problem is not just Cuba but Berlin. If it were only Cuba it would be easy: “But if we do nothing, we will have problems in Berlin anyway. So, we have to do something.” [6:50] > > Air Force chief of staff General Curtis LeMay, argues forcefully that the blockade and the political talks without accompanying military action will lead to war. He concludes that the Soviets won’t take Berlin if we act in Cuba but will take it if we fail to act [8:30]. “This is almost as bad as the appeasement at Munich… I just don’t see any other solution except direct military intervention right now.” [9:30] Do you think JFK was chicken? Today, I doubt the military is pushing a strike, but do you seriously think Cheney is any more rational than LeMay 45 years ago? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/69 "2007-08-30T23:19:04Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Lastly, what would China and/Russia do? Sorry, have no inside scoop to give you as my Kremlin/Beijing connections have faded throughout the years. But are you **sure** you really want to find out? Hmmmm…methinks you’re smarter than that. [/quote] Well, you’ll notice that I have explicitly stated that I don’t think it would be at all wise to bomb Iran, so it should be pretty obvious that I don’t want to find out. Whether or not we agree on what the consequences would be, it seems to me the more important matter is that we do agree on what the US should do-- ie, we should not bomb Iran. But if there’s one way to get the entire world ready to “bomb Iran” it would be for them to sabotage the world’s oil supply. China and Russia aren’t going to sit back and see their economies go in the dumper just so they can say “I told you so” to the US. Neither will the Europeans. **elucidator** : I believe I have consisted said in every thread on this subject that I do not favor air strikes, “surgical” or otherwise, against Iran. I don’t think I’d want us to do it even if the UN and the Europeans begged us to do it. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/70 "2007-08-30T23:21:29Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Apples to oranges comparison Red…but you know, its not really worth talking to you about this kind of stuff. Just keep telling yourself that the US military is a broken reed. I’m sure it will be a comfort to you. [/QUOTE] Well, as long as it prevents more senseless killing on your end, it sure does – comfort me that is. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/71 "2007-08-30T23:28:08Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Are we constitutionally permitted to impeach on the basis that the President is batshit pizza? Will you sign our petition? [/QUOTE] On the impeachment thing… I’d be very surprised if Congress impeaches Bush, but if they decide to do so over the Iraq war, that’s fine with me. Since the president can be impeached for pretty much anything Congress wants to impeach him for, taking us into an unnecessary war seems like fine grounds for impeachment to me. Fine grounds for removing him from office, too (as if that will ever happen, though). Frankly, I wish that Congress could impeach itself, too, for giving him the authority to do it. It’s his war, no doubt about that, but they put their stamp of approval on it (the ones who voted for the AUMF, that is). ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/72 "2007-08-30T23:28:50Z")
As always, **John** , in some bizarre round about way (which, if you’ll excuse me, I blame on the round about way you express yourself) we basically agree. As for the “whole world vs Iran” if they did what I proposed…well, not necessarily. More than a few nations (such as Russia and China) might not retaliate against _them_…but against those that attacked them **first** …and again, for no good reason. Dunno why, but it sure as heck makes sense to me. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/73 "2007-08-30T23:37:15Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] As always, **John** , in some bizarre round about way (which, if you’ll excuse me, I blame on the round about way you express yourself) we basically agree. [/quote] Round about? > [@John Mace](#): > > n.b.: I am not saying I endorse an attack on Iran. I most emphatically do not. That’s taken from my first reply to you. I don’t see how I could have been any clearer. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/74 "2007-08-30T23:47:26Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Round about? [/QUOTE] Apologies. The right spelling which obviously threw you off is [roundabout](http://www.answers.com/topic/roundabout?method=26&initiator=CANS) Specifically meaning: “indirect; circuitous” adjective > [@](#): > > _Not taking a direct or straight line or course: anfractuous, circuitous, circular, devious, indirect, oblique, tortuous._ Trust that clears it up for you. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2007, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/75 "2007-08-30T23:57:03Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Apologies. The right spelling which obviously threw you off is [roundabout](http://www.answers.com/topic/roundabout?method=26&initiator=CANS) Specifically meaning: “indirect; circuitous” adjective Trust that clears it up for you. [/QUOTE] Nope. I knew what you meant. So, how is this: > [@JM](#): > > I am not saying I endorse an attack on Iran. I most emphatically do not. Roundabout? But you know what… it really doesn’t matter. Blame it on me if you want, I don’t care. I just want other readers to be able to judge for themselves. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2007, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/76 "2007-08-31T00:02:28Z")
PS-It wasn’t from that response to me but rather from these – pardon me if I don’t link to each one. Tired. Besides they are all on this very thread and quoted verbatim: > [@John Mace](#): > > If Bush wants to drop a few bombs on Iran, he doesn’t need to whip up any support for that. He’ll just do it… > > \ > > Look, I’ve said all along that it wouldn’t surprise me if Bush dropped a few bombs on Iran at some point… > > \ > > No, I’m depending on the fact that they don’t have the capability of attacking us and that we don’t have any more troops to call on to invade Iran. We had something like 300k troops going into Iraq, and Iran is much bigger, with more military capability than Iraq had. Bush is struggling to keep the 30k troops for “the surge” in Iraq in place. > > The most they could realistically do is to up the ante in how they’re meddling in Iraq. Even if they tried to use conventional forces to attack our guys there, it would be a suicide mission for them. Our air power would just blow them to pieces as they tried to cross the border. Then what? > > \ > > The Iranians aren’t stupid enough to send troops into Iraq. As I said above, that would be suicidal-- not so much for Iran, but for the military itself. Why on earth would they march their military into Iraq just to have it blow to smithereens by our airforce? Here, America, destroy our military for us!! A conventional military we can wipe out almost with the snap of a finger. They know that. > > A few undercover Revolutionary Guards? Maybe they could slip them across the border to mess with us a bit. That’s exactly what I was talking about earlier when I said they might up the ante of how they’re meddling in Iraq. That ain’t war by any reasonable definition. Seeing a pattern of disdain here? Are you any closer to understanding my use of “roundabout way”? Hope so. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2007, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/77 "2007-08-31T00:04:06Z")
PS-Yup. I also want other readers to judge for themselves. Once more we agree. 'cept directly this time. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2007, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/78 "2007-08-31T00:05:30Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] So, basically your thesis is that whatever happens, this blogger will have predicted it. [/QUOTE] The blogger is not predicting military action, only an anti-Iran propaganda/marketing campaign. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2007, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/79 "2007-08-31T00:10:03Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] No, I’m depending on the fact that they don’t have the capability of attacking us and that we don’t have any more troops to call on to invade Iran. [/quote] They do, however, have the capability to invade Iraq and fight our troops there, and if we were to bomb their nuke plants, they would be entirely justified in doing so. [QUOTE=John Mace] The most they could realistically do is to up the ante in how they’re meddling in Iraq. Even if they tried to use conventional forces to attack our guys there, it would be a suicide mission for them. Our air power would just blow them to pieces as they tried to cross the border. Then what? [/QUOTE] You’re being overly optimistic. Iran is in much, much better shape to fight than Iraq was in 2002. Iran also has an air force – not as good as ours, but for these purposes it doesn’t have to be. Iran has the advantage of being able to launch its planes from ground-based military airports, while we would mostly have to rely on aircraft carriers. Furthermore, in the scenario you describe it would be almost impossible for us to use our “air power” without bombing our own troops. And our troops would have a hostile Iraqi population at their backs. If they have to take on the Iranians, **they will lose.** (Barring the nuclear option, of course, which I hope you will agree is not even to be considered.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2007, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520/80 "2007-08-31T00:13:54Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] 1. The level of propaganda in eveidence in 2002 related to a war with Iraq was vastly greater, and more openly aggressive, than is the case with Iran. [/quote] Absolutely. **Now.** That might change. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-admin-planning-post-labor-day-product-rollout-of-war-with-iran-hysteria/417520.md?page=5)