I’ll believe it when I see it, but if this is true it will be one of the greatest things humans have ever done. Reading this thread, I have actually shed a tear. A tear of joy and hope thinking of the promise and possibilities that seem to lie within our grasp.
I’d like to address the reasons to go to Mars specifically, the general reasons to explore our solar system and beyond, the realities of the technologies and costs involved, and the dangers and risks that we must face and anticipate to the best of our ability. I may be repeating some things others have said here, but bear with me, I love this stuff. As this post will illustrate, this issue covers an incredible amount of ground: Ecology, Theology, Paleontology, Politics, History, Ethics, Economics, Philosophy, Safety, Survival of the Species, and those greatest of human traits: Hope and Imagination.
MANNED MARS MISSIONS: WHY?
1. The Search For Life
I would have to say, that for the short term, this is the main reason to put humans on Mars. A team of humans with the proper tools could do far more to solve this question then 100 robotic probes (at least current robotic probes). A human team could make on the fly decisions and could follow leads wherever they may take them. We are fluid, adaptable, and we have a tool at our disposal that modern robots lack: Intuition.
Why is this question so important? Because our species does not know why we are here, how we got here, or whether there is any purpose whatsoever to our existence (other than that which we choose to give it). Sure, one could find millions of people who claim to have the answers to these questions, but I suspect they are just fooling themselves. For thousands of years humans have dressed up their ignorance in superstition. Gods and demons are responsible for everything, or so they would have us believe, but the truth is more likely than not that the answers to these questions have never been known by any human . . . so far anyway. How life originates? Where? And, if possible, Why? These are the most compelling questions that I have ever encountered. Anything that furthers the pursuit of this knowledge is to me, the most important thing we as a collective species could do.
Lib points out an interesting little question. Even if we find life there, how do we know we didn’t contaminate mars with this life with one of our earlier probes? Hell, that’s not even the half of it. You see, a Nasa space probe isn’t the only way that could have happened. Panspermia (and even more dramatic: Cosmic Ancestry) is the really interesting possibility here. What if life from Earth or Mars was transferred from one to the other when rocks, which contained bacteria, were blasted into space by meteor/comet crashes? What if this happens all of the time? What if the origin isn’t in our Solar System?
What if space in general is filled with the seeds of life? As recent studies hint, we may be bombarded by alien bacteria daily. If this is true, there are a couple of interesting possibilities. One, it is a random and unintelligent process as described above. The other is that some other species somewhere in the universe decided that instead of (or in addition to) sending space ships around the universe, bombarding star systems with bacteria that has the ability to adapt and evolve was the way to go. If this turns out to be the case, then perhaps we can track the origin of this bacteria and find our “parents”. A grand puzzle which will undoubtedly paint an awe inspiring story however it ends up fitting together.
Either way, humans on Mars could look for fossils, which is the main answer to Lib’s question. Humans are much better equipped to do this then robots. If we found ancient fossils of life on Mars, it would show that our technology didn’t bring it there, but as I pointed out, it would not prove it did not come for Earth. This great puzzle to me seems a solvable one, and we just need to reach out with human hands and put our tools and resources on the pieces to start really putting it together. Our job is to find meaning in our existence. If after we have looked under every rock and in every star in our universe, we fail to find that which we seek, then it becomes our job to create it. The next best place to start looking for the answers is Mars.
2. Eggs in one Basket
Everything is relative. Our planet’s ecosystem is tough and resilient, but also fragile. We may destroy every trace of our knowledge and existence any day. The same could happen without us doing anything at all. The dinosaurs should teach us a valuable lesson. Our rock is in danger of being smashed. It happens. It will happen again. We have suffered too much, we have shed too much blood, too many people have died, too many people have given their lives for knowledge, art, and love. To lose all of that progress, to lose all of that history, to forever banish the beauty, achieved at such a painful price, from any awareness or memory is the greatest for tragedy humanity could suffer.
The things we’ve learned and earned must be protected. Colonies on the moon, Mars, asteroids, Venus, all through the Solar System, and eventually out into the Galaxy and beyond is our only real hope of preserving this history and our achievements. I for one hope that the backs of the giants that we stand on are never erased. I want them to be there until this universe winks out of existence. Again, it’s not a question of the Earth is doomed, just a question of when. “In our obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us.” - Carl Sagan
3. Population Growth & Technology Development
Plain and simple. The Earth has a maximum holding capacity. The actual number is debatable, but surely there is one. To allow more humans to exist, we’re going to need a place to put them. The moon is colonizable. Mars is our best bet for terraforming. Venus comes next. Without intergalactic travel, we have to look to the planets in our neighborhood to provide homes for future generations. To do this, we need to be able to get to these places cheaply and routinely. Going to Mars will help us learn how to successfully pull this off. We will develop the procedures and technology required to allow humanity to continue to grow and evolve into something better - the best we can hope for. Nevermind the fact that science (genomics, organ cloning, proteomics) seems poised to greatly enhance our lifespans - perhaps to hundreds of years or more.
SOLAR SYSTEM EXPLORATION: WHY?
1. Industry & Wealth
As well as the reasons I gave for exploring Mars (which in many ways apply to the Solar System in general - ie the search for life, our quest for knowledge, technology creation/mastering, new habitats), a major reason to put money into space launch and propulsion technologies is the tremendous wealth that will be generated in the case of success. From this website:
And that is just considering the materials we use today. Who knows what new processes or materials (Dilithium!) may be found that add to human wealth and help to allieviate our suffering. Then there is tourism to consider. With cheap access to space, and mobility once we get there, whole new industries and markets will spring into existence.
THE TECHNOLOGY: IS IT THERE?
1. Space Elevators
It seems to me, as stated by others here, to realize our Solar System’s true potential requires space elevators, fast ships, and the human touch. A very interesting thread exists on this board dedicated to the realities of a Space Elevator (projected by some to be achievable in 15 years). It seems the main obstacles to the construction are the quantity of Carbon Nanotubes able to be produced (which is quickly becoming a non-problem) and the ability to weave a cable out of these tubes. If we could make such a cable out of this material which we already can create, it should have the strength to support such an endeavor.
2. Nuclear Powered Manned Vehicles
As far as I know, the technology to create such ships is there, it just needs to be put together. That is what Prometheus and this thread are all about really. It will take a ton of cash to design, test, and build such ships, but none of it requires new discoveries, just solid design and testing. The tech is all there.
3. Habitats
This will be a tricky part. There have been several attempts to create fully enclosed self-supporting biospheres here on earth, but all of them have ultimately needed outside help to stay in order as best as I can tell. Colonies and bases will need to be designed differently depending on where you want to put them. Mars habitats will have different needs then a moon habitat which will be different then what is needed to create a habitat on an asteroid. Everything from inflatable structures to buried bunkers will need to be considered. I am skeptical that we have reached the point where we can create a self-supporting colony, so continual outside help will be needed.
4. Cargo Routes
Supplies and cargo will need to be received from Earth, at least at first, by any manned outposts. Eventually, this will help to create a Solar System wide economy. Ships that never land on any planet or asteroid but make round trips between the target and Earth will be needed. They will need to be able to carry people and/or supplies crucial to maintaining the shelters we will build. Ships will dock with them as they arrive and unload the cargo, reload what they wish to send back, and then repeat. The word for this is infrastructure, and it will be greatly needed to maintain a significant human presence off planet.
The cost for the industrialization and colonization of space will be tremendous up front, but if successful, it will pay for itself 1000 fold or more in the long run. I believe the proper term is investment.
- Terraforming
This is longer term thinking, and the tech involved is theoretical. It is true we have trouble maintaining an ideal habitat (Earth), but that involves fine tuning. There are many competing ideas about how to achieve such a thing, but it will take time, and a much deeper understanding of planets and ecology then we currently have. The cost is hard to judge and this step will not come until we have a firm infrastructure in place. It’s exciting to think about, but I think this is a long way off. Centuries at least.
RISKS, DANGERS, AND ETHICS
1. Erroneous/Deceitful Budgeting Practices
As the ISS has shown us, Nasa has a way of ballooning costs and shrinking benefits from initial ambitious predictions. Careless mistakes (such as failing to convert to/from the metric system - idiots) have led to huge losses. Wink-Wink-Nod-Nod type of agreements between politicians and contractors are a real danger. I do not put it past corporations nor politicians to use the hopes and dreams of citizens to line their own pockets. Unbiased 3rd party groups (if such a thing is even possible) need to monitor spending and hiring to protect against useless and foolish spending.
Safeguards, checks, and balances need to be put into place to keep the process honest and efficient. This will be no easy task, and the ugly side of human nature - greed and laziness - will be our enemies. There is no easy way to do this given the complexity and scope of such projects. This is a real concern to me.
**2.The Environment
Launching nuclear material into space presents certain dangers. A nuclear explosion (even a “merely” dirty one) in the upper atmosphere could be disastrous. Radioactive material could be spread for thousands of miles and affect the health of millions of people. These reactors need to be able to withstand a total meltdown-explosion-style without fucking everyone below it up. I am confident that such safeguards can be put into place, but folks screaming about this danger are justified. This is not an area to be reckless. Caution and safety must be a top priority.
A space elevator will have a tremendously long cable and an asteroid at the top of it. We need to plan for complete disaster. If the cable breaks it needs to be in such a way that it falls with minimal damage to populated areas. An asteroid in orbit creates serious dinosaur killer types of possibilities, and any such move needs to be carefully planned and skillfully executed. Human casualties need to be minimalized as much as possible. There will always be some risk, but when disaster strikes, I would rather lose 1, 10, or 100 people who knew the dangers involved with being involved with something so ambitious, then thousands or millions just living their lives on Earth.
The other danger to the environment is the “Andromeda Strain” scenario where a species from space contaminates and kills humans. We do not know what we will encounter out there, and unintended consequences can be a real bitch. Rigorous detection and sterilization procedures will need to be developed and implemented.
3. Ethics
What if we find life? Should we have a prime directive? Should we stay off of the planet? Should we decide that a place to live for humans is more important then a native bacteria? Should we bring the life to our planet? Should we reshape the solar system as we see fit? What about nationality? What happens when colonies decide they want to be independent and self governing? Kim Stanley Robinson covers this issue in a most interesting tale in his Mars Trilogy. Can we avoid war and hatred in Space even though we seem incapable of doing so here on Earth? These questions have no easy answer, and there will need to be global discourse to come up with guidelines to ensure that ethics go with us out into space, and violence, destruction, and disease stay at home. No easy task, but it must be considered.
CONCLUSIONS
In the end, our species must reach as far and as high as possible. We must push our own limits and learn all which is learnable. Knowledge allows progress, and if there is a purpose to our existence, it just may be that all we need to figure it out is within our ability to grasp. We must reach out and try. We must look for it within and without. We must spread awareness through the universe and if we find no others, and no purpose, then it is our responsibility to create it. Otherwise, to me, our pain, our death, our discovery, our hope, our wondering, our very being - it was all for nothing. Space represents the continuing journey of humanity. A journey that is amazing to behold, and one whose boundaries are not yet within view. We must live up to that potential to bring in the next chapter of our species with dignity, daring, and responsibility.
DaLovin’ Dj
