# Bush ahead; what must Kerry do? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 25, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069 "2004-10-25T16:36:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Genghis\_Bob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/45deac/32.png) [@Genghis\_Bob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Genghis_Bob)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/1 "2004-10-25T16:36:49Z")
According to this [Electoral Vote prediction](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) site, Bush is ahead, and will be ahead come November 2. So, what does Kerry need to do in the next eight days to turn it around? What themes has he not been hitting that he needs to pound on? What part of his message is not getting through - or what part is getting through, too well? I think he has let Bush paint him as a tax-and-spend liberal; I’ve heard from lots of folks (I know, it’s all anecdotal) that, while they may not like Bush much, they don’t trust the liberal Kerry. I also think Kerry has failed to outline his a accomplishments while in the Senate, particularly in the areas of foreign policy and bi-partisan initiatives. Can he turn it around in time? What must he do, to do so? ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/2 "2004-10-25T16:47:26Z")
The totals on that site are crap. If it’s a dead heat on a poll in a state, within the margin of error, there’s no logical way you can call that state for either candidate. The totals are really Bush 214, Kerry 203, and 121 tossup. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/3 "2004-10-25T16:47:57Z")
Kerry needs to wait until [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) updates tomorrow, for one thing. On Friday they were predicting a Kerry win. Kerry needs to keep convincing people that he’s strong on terrorism, that Bush and Cheney are trying to get people to vote out of fear, and that Bush’s “strong” terrorism stance is belied by a poor track record. Terrorism is up, there were more vulnerable nuclear warheads destroyed before 2001 than after, he didn’t catch bin Laden, he ignored reports that bin Laden was determined to strike, etc. And he needs his volunteer army to make sure everyone who can vote gets to the polls and doesn’t get intimidated/rejected on election day. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/4 "2004-10-25T17:58:25Z")
I agree with **SmackFu**. You can’t accept that site’s count of electoral votes as gospel. A 2% shift in a few swing states and you have a completely, totally different result. And, there is a record number of new registered voters this year, with some indications that these will favor Kerry. The election is really a toss-up at this point. It is becoming more and more a matter of who does the best job getting voters to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/5 "2004-10-25T18:01:10Z")
At this point, why would you expect Kerry to do something positive? It’s rarely happened this year or last and he certainly has had many chances due to pure luck. If public opinion is really just 2-3 points in Bush’s favor, then differences in turnout could win the day for Kerry. If it’s more like 6 points, then it’s entirely up to Bush making a blunder or some adverse external news, like from Iraq, that’s gives Kerry a chance. ---
**Author:** ![Genghis\_Bob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/45deac/32.png) [@Genghis\_Bob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Genghis_Bob)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/6 "2004-10-25T18:02:31Z")
Okay, let’s re-frame the question then. Given the low approval rating for Bush (still below 50%?) why isn’t Kerry running away from him? It seems clear (at least to me) that people, even those who are unhappy about Bush, are not enthused about Kerry. What about his message is not getting through? And so on, refering back to my original post. In other words: critique Kerry’s strategy so far, and suggest what he needs to do in the next eight (seven-and-a-half) days. ---
**Author:** ![Aldebaran](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Aldebaran](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aldebaran)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/7 "2004-10-25T18:11:03Z")
> [@aahala](#): > > … or some adverse external news, like from Iraq, that’s gives Kerry a chance. He can already use this one: > **[Al Qaqaa: where the roadside bombs come from](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=282764)** > > This morning’s NYT reports: The explosives in question are HMX and RDX, which mean nothing to me, but apparently are about the most kick-ass conventional explosives around - much more powerful than TNT. A little bit of it does a lot: And: This... Salaam. A ---
**Author:** ![Genghis\_Bob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/45deac/32.png) [@Genghis\_Bob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Genghis_Bob)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/8 "2004-10-25T18:12:25Z")
> [@aahala](#): > > At this point, why would you expect Kerry to do something positive? It’s rarely happened this year or last and he certainly has had many chances due to pure luck. > > If public opinion is really just 2-3 points in Bush’s favor, then differences in turnout could win the day for Kerry. If it’s more like 6 points, then it’s entirely up to Bush making a blunder or some adverse external news, like from Iraq, that’s gives Kerry a chance. I’m not saying I \*expect \* Kerry to do something positive. I’m asking if he should have. In my opinion, yes, he should have been more proactive in filling in the holes in his biography before the Republicans did it for him. I think his strategy has been flawed. Agree with me, and tell me how much you agree with me. Or disagree with me, and tell me what he should have done, or tell me why he has run the best campaign he could have, and shouldn’t have changed a thing. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/9 "2004-10-25T18:16:30Z")
Flying to Pakistan and capturing Osama binLaden personally wouldn’t hurt. People read way too much into [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com). Kerry needs to stay steady, keep campaigning, and use Clinton as much as he can in places like Philadelphia and Arkansas. Keep hammering Bush and answer every charge that Rove throws at him. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/10 "2004-10-25T18:29:21Z")
Oh…And, I would read all of the stuff below the map on that electoral vote site, and particularly click on the link going to the article about undecideds. Of course, Bush’s appeal to fear is clearly a strategy to try to get the undecideds to break more toward the incumbent than they usually do. Who knows if it will be successful or not. ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/11 "2004-10-25T18:33:40Z")
If you believe all the pundits, Kerry needs to: Be less liberal Be less centrist Stop pandering to the voters Tell the voters what they want to hear Communicate a clear message without getting bogged down in details Give more details Focus on the positive Attack Bush’s negatives more forcefully If he clones himself and simultaneously runs an anti-Kerry, he just might pull it off. 😉 > [@](#): > > Okay, let’s re-frame the question then. Given the low approval rating for Bush (still below 50%?) why isn’t Kerry running away from him? The number of people who approve of Bush is pretty close to the number of people who say they will vote for him. Makes sense to me. ---
**Author:** ![Metacom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@Metacom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Metacom)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/12 "2004-10-25T18:42:37Z")
> [@blowero](#): > > If he clones himself and simultaneously runs an anti-Kerry, he just might pull it off. 😉 Brilliant! Such a maneuver would also fend off the “flip-flopper” criticisms: by simultaneously positioning Kerry in both the flip-state and the flop-state, the dualistic Kerrylets would prevent people from characterizing Kerry has someone who oscillates between two different positions! ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/13 "2004-10-25T19:26:42Z")
I seriously doubt Bush is ahead by any meaningful margin; there’s enough polling evidence to support pretty much any viewpoint. I will say this: the electoral vote comes down to a few swing states where the margins are currently too close to call. And if that’s the case, and if past trends hold true (like independents breaking for the challenger, because they’ve already had four years of the incumbent, and if they’re not yet convinced they won’t ever be), and if certain other factors unique to this election also hold true (that there will be large numbers of new voters, who will also tend to break for the challenger since they skew young, urban, and minority–IOW Democrat-trending), then Kerry is sitting pretty. What I don’t wish for, however, seems fairly possible: that the winner could win the EV without winning the popular vote. That’s the last thing this country needs. But in terms of Kerry’s chances, he is running against probably the most negative campaign in presidential campaign history. It’s amazing how much effort the Bushies are putting into making this election a referendum on the challenger, while distorting his record and his words. Just look at the spikes in Kerry’s popularity, and when they took place: after the DNC and after the debates. In other words, when voters got an unfiltered look at the man and his positions. So that’s why he isn’t running away with the election, despite Bush’s continual polling below 50% approval rating. But I’ll also say this: The best way to predict this election at this point is not on the basis of head-to-head polls, but rather by looking at that approval rating. The president will not poll above that number. If it’s below 50%, especially as the election becomes closer, John Kerry can begin picking out a suit for his inauguration. ---
**Author:** ![Genghis\_Bob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/45deac/32.png) [@Genghis\_Bob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Genghis_Bob)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/14 "2004-10-25T19:31:00Z")
While all the input on [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) is very interesting and somewhat encouraging, there’s already at least one thread devoted to the accuracy of the polls. I’m sorry I mentioned the site, because it led us astray from the question I had hoped we could fight about: what should Kerry be doing differently at this stage in his campaign, if anything? ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/15 "2004-10-25T19:51:16Z")
Yes, let us not forget the cell phone factor. The polls miss people who use cell phones exclusively. Exclusive cell phone users trend young. Young voters favor Kerry by a large margin. The other X-factor is how you define “likely voter.” Some of the polls exclude new registrants. There are indications that new registrants are largely Democratic. (Whether they will turn out to vote is another issue.) Bottom line: The polls are of limited value. This is an incredibly tight race. Turnout is everything this year. ---
**Author:** ![braintree](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@braintree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/braintree)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/16 "2004-10-25T20:00:21Z")
I think he should go after Bush’s greatest strength - his perceived superiority as a national security president. 1. Dick Cheney repeatedly failed to meet with the terrorism task force in the months leading up to 9/11 2. Dick Cheney, as CEO of Halliburton did business with Iran and recommended dropping sanctions against Saddam Hussein 3. The new CIA guy — appointed by the president — wanted twice as much in CIA spending cuts as the ones Bush is now bitching at Kerry for supporting. 4. While repeatedly being warned about an impending attack from Al Qaeda, the president went and stayed on vacation. 5. John Ashcroft asked for cuts in anti-terrorism funding on 9/10. 6. When attacked, the President sat on his ass for ten minutes and then went a-schmoozing. Then he hid. 7. Unlike the president or vice president, John Kerry has actually taken the trouble to defend his country (actually, he’s using that). 8. Point out that the president by not protecting our container ports, our chemical plants or our nuclear power plants has left us exposed at home while building a missile defense shield that does nothing to protect us but makes a lot of money for the military-industrial complex. 9. The president, through his usual incompetency, let our enemies in Iraq get their hands on 350 tons of high explosives which which our enemies have been using to attack our troops: [http://story.news.yahoo.com/fc?cid=34&tmpl=fc&in=World&cat=Iraq](http://story.news.yahoo.com/fc?cid=34&tmpl=fc&in=World&cat=Iraq) That happened a year ago and the story just broke yesterday. The White House’s justification for keeping it a secret? _ **That they wanted to keep it a secret to our enemies wouldn’t know that they had stolen it.** _ I’d say Big John’s got a fair amount to work with. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/17 "2004-10-25T20:00:34Z")
> [@Genghis Bob](#): > > While all the input on [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com) is very interesting and somewhat encouraging, there’s already at least one thread devoted to the accuracy of the polls. I’m sorry I mentioned the site, because it led us astray from the question I had hoped we could fight about: what should Kerry be doing differently at this stage in his campaign, if anything? I would say nothing. At this point it’s a matter of shoring up the moderate states and getting out the vote. Keep making visits in the swing states. Keep advertising in the swing states. Keep granting televised interviews and looking ‘presidential’. And yes, capturing OBL single-handedly wouldn’t hurt. ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2004, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/18 "2004-10-25T20:08:59Z")
There are two basic ways to beat an incumbant – I am more competent than my opponent or I am different from my opponent. Being prepared to use either is one thing, but averaging both themes, or moving back and forward one day to the next is not a good stragedy. Kerry has been a senator for 20 years. He and his advisers knew a year ago the nature of some of these attacks and prepared him with in some cases a B- defense. If your big time advisers can’t do better than that given the lead time, you need a new brain trust. How about getting more specific in regard to some of your issues, like importing drugs, failures in defense planning or the coalition of the willing. Get the researchers out there to find a US plant producing a single drug, some packaged for the US and some packaged for Canada so you can tell the American people the only difference is the price and package, and Bush is responsible for the former. Look for an example of the US company outscoring jobs – let’s see if we can get one like this: an Enron office in Tampa or Cleveland that went overseas because of a tax bill Bush signed and “I”(Kerry) voted against. I would like to know how much(or how little) Arabic language training our troops got before the occupation. Surely Mr. President, that wasn’t good enough and I will do better, etc. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/19 "2004-10-26T17:07:27Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Kerry needs to wait until [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) updates tomorrow, for one thing. [I’m a genius](http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/oct26x.html). It’s in the bag for Kerry now! ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069/20 "2004-10-26T17:27:23Z")
> [@bup](#): > > [I’m a genius](http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/oct26x.html). It’s in the bag for Kerry now! Excellent! Not only did Kerry show the good judgment and momentum of winning several states overnight before the polls open, he now has a surplus elector. Vote for bup. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-ahead-what-must-kerry-do/271069.md?page=2)