# Bush and the Cuban Military Forces
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [August 7, 2006, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663 "2006-08-07T09:17:09Z")
**Posts on this page:** 17
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/1 "2006-08-07T09:17:09Z")
Yesterday on _Meet the Press_, Tim Russert said that _USA Today_ said that the Bush Administration has dedicated assistance “to prepare the Cuban military forces to adjust to an appropriate role in a democracy.” He asked Secretary of State Rice about the statement. This was her response. (I have not deleted anything which would change the meaning of what she was saying.):
> [@](#):
>
> **Secretary Rice** : That simply means, Tim, that we’ve done some far-reaching thinking about when the transition really does come in Cuba, how Cuba might have institutions of democracy. That’s all that means.
(At this point she explains that we are certainly **not** going to invade Cuba.)
> [@](#):
>
> …This is simply trying to think through how we might help the Cuban people have more democratic institutions when that time comes…Our role right now is to make clear the kind of future we see and to be prepared to help the Cuban people toward that future.
Twice Tim Russert asked Sec. Rice if Cuban-Americans would be allowed to exit in mass to return to Cuba, but she would not answer the question. Apparently this is not part of the future that she sees is her role to “make clear.”
I found the newspaper’s reference to preparation of Cuban military forces troubling and the champing at the bit to establish democratic institutions a little familiar and premature. Still, I understand that there has to be some thought given to planning for all possible eventualities.
Any chance of our not getting involved? How could we prevent Cuban-Americans from returning to Cuba if they wished? (That sounds more like something Castro would do.)
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### Author:  [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/2 "2006-08-07T09:44:21Z")
I did not see that, but my guess is ‘preparation’ is a euphemism for paying them.
The USA learnt quite a lot in Iraq, one thing which the Europeans learnt a long time ago, is that a bunch of de-mobbed and unemployed soldiers is a very dangerous prospect.
I think that putting the Cuban military on a salary of $1000 per month with ‘democracy’ courses on a rota basis in an attractive part of the USA, could well keep a lid on things.
It seems pretty difficult preventing Cuban Americans returning, also it is possible that it would not be a very good idea, provided they returned with plenty of $US and no weopons, they could kick start the economy.
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### Author:  [@Dubious\_Weasle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dubious_Weasle)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/3 "2006-08-07T12:43:22Z")
> [@](#):
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> Twice Tim Russert asked Sec. Rice if Cuban-Americans would be allowed to exit in mass to return to Cuba, but she would not answer the question.
Why in the world would we even want to prevent Cuban-American US citizens from emmigrating to Cuba?
Sure we have sanctions against doing business with Cuba and tourism [same thing] but to my knowledge no one has ever put forth restricting the freedom of movement of US citizens.
Now, we don’t have much in the way of direct flights so they’d have to go through a third country en route but I’ve never heard anyone vaguely legitimate propose that US citizens be restricted from traveling abroad or emmigrating.
Of course, depending on where you go and the specifics of your travels, there might be some questions upon your return. Likewise, if you claim citizenship in another country it may cause you problems.
Hell, US citizens can travel to North Korea.
Maybe I’m missing something but I’m not sure why this question would even be asked.
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### Author:  [@Dubious\_Weasle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dubious_Weasle)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/4 "2006-08-07T12:48:39Z")
In any case, even as cynical as I am in regards to the current administration I don’t see anything sinister in this. If Cuba does have a revolution or otherwise goes democratic it would be foolish for the US **not** to have a contingency plan prepared.
Heck, I’m sure we’ve had some sort of plan in place for decades. Given the current, though possibly temporary, power transition occuring at the moment its completely appropriate to give the old plans a bit of a dusting off and update.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/5 "2006-08-07T14:49:36Z")
> [@Dubious Weasle](#):
>
> Sure we have sanctions against doing business with Cuba and tourism [same thing] but to my knowledge no one has ever put forth restricting the freedom of movement of US citizens.
Not true. It is illegal for Americans to visit Cuba. Some do, but they have to go by way of a third country.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/6 "2006-08-07T14:53:46Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Not true. It is illegal for Americans to visit Cuba.
See [here.](http://www.cubafoundation.org/travel.html)
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### Author:  [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/7 "2006-08-07T15:35:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Not true. It is illegal for Americans to visit Cuba. Some do, but they have to go by way of a third country.
Strictly speaking, it is illegal for Americans to visit Cuba without a license from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). A general license exists for the following people and purposes - note that tourism is NOT a permitted reason:
[ul]
[li]Journalists and supporting personnel (regularly employed in that capacity by a news reporting organization and traveling for journalistic activities in Cuba)[/li]
[li]Official government travelers on official business[/li]
[li]Members of international organizations of which the United States is also a member (traveling on official business).[/li]
[li]Full-time professionals whose travel transactions are directly related to research in their professional areas, provided that their research: 1) is of a noncommercial, academic nature; 2) comprises a full work schedule in Cuba; and 3) has a substantial likelihood of public dissemination.[/li]
[li]Full-time professionals whose travel transactions are directly related to attendance at professional meetings or conferences in Cuba organized by an international professional organization, institution, or association that regularly sponsors such meetings or conferences in other countries. An organization, institution, or association headquartered in the United States may not sponsor such a meeting or conference unless it has been specifically licensed to sponsor it. The purpose of the meeting or conference cannot be the promotion of tourism in Cuba or other commercial activities involving Cuba, or to foster production of any bio-technological products.[/li][/ul]
Specific licenses are available from OFAC for visits to immediate family members, students studying in Cuba, religiously-motivated visits, humanitarian projects, and athletic or artistic competitions and exhibitions, among others. The text above was lifted from [404 - Page Not Found](http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1097.html)
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/8 "2006-08-07T15:56:00Z")
> [@Bricker](#):
>
> A general license exists for the following people and purposes -
Which would not include Cuban-Americans planning to go there for political or commercial purposes, or even just to visit their families. Of course, the question will not even arise until the Castro regime ends, and if that happens we can expect the travel ban to lifted in short order anyway.
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### Author:  [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/9 "2006-08-07T16:03:53Z")
> [@Dubious Weasle](#):
>
> In any case, even as cynical as I am in regards to the current administration I don’t see anything sinister in this. If Cuba does have a revolution or otherwise goes democratic it would be foolish for the US **not** to have a contingency plan prepared.
>
> Heck, I’m sure we’ve had some sort of plan in place for decades. Given the current, though possibly temporary, power transition occuring at the moment its completely appropriate to give the old plans a bit of a dusting off and update.
[Here’s](http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/06/30/after.castro/index.html) a news story on the subject.
> [@CNN.com](#):
>
> WASHINGTON (CNN) – The U.S. should have assistance in Cuba within weeks of President Fidel Castro’s death to support a transitional government and help move the country toward democracy, a government report recommends.
>
> The report was prepared by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, an interagency group co-chaired by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, a Cuban-American.
Judging from the story, there _is_ no plan; they are just now talking about _beginning_ a plan. I’m sure _previous_ Administrations had plans; I’m also sure _this_ one would never even consider using those plans. I also noted in the story an unstated assumption from the Bushites that Cuba would basically cheerfully let us reshape them in our own image.
As far as Cuban-Americans returning home goes, from the same story :
> [@CNN.com](#):
>
> The Bush administration already has tightened the four-decades-old U.S. embargo of the island, increased Radio Marti news broadcasts into Cuba, curtailed visits home by Cuban-Americans and limited the amount of money Cuban-Americans can send to relatives.
That could change after he dies, of course.
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### Author:  [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/10 "2006-08-07T17:44:07Z")
[From Reuters:](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060807/ts_nm/cuba_dc_48)
> [@](#):
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> A leading intellectual and Cuban government member said the country had set in motion a “peaceful succession” – the first official to use the word succession. It was not clear whether his use of the term implied that Castro’s handover of power to his brother Raul will turn out to be permanent.
(shaking head) Where are the Old Moscow Hands at Reuters when we need them? OF COURSE that means Raul is in 'til death do us part! What the hell else might it mean? This isn’t reading tea leaves or looking where who is on the reviewing stand at the May Day parade! These things aren’t said by accident so if he said “succession” he MEANT “succession.”
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [August 7, 2006, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/11 "2006-08-07T18:53:46Z")
> [@dropzone](#):
>
> [From Reuters:](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060807/ts_nm/cuba_dc_48)
> (shaking head) Where are the Old Moscow Hands at Reuters when we need them? OF COURSE that means Raul is in 'til death do us part! What the hell else might it mean? This isn’t reading tea leaves or looking where who is on the reviewing stand at the May Day parade! These things aren’t said by accident so if he said “succession” he MEANT “succession.”
Then the embargo will stay in place, the travel ban will stay in place, and nothing will change.
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### Author:  [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)
#### Post date: [August 8, 2006, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/12 "2006-08-08T05:11:10Z")
Verrry interesting link, **dropzone**. A Cuban official drops the word “succession” and I find out the news in my own thread.
I’m going to assume that you would not be silly enough to call a thread that consists mostly of quoting the Secretary of State and asking what she meant to be a “rant.” I even gave the Bush Administration credit for _needing_ to have some sort of contingency plan. Maybe you misread.
Stating that I find our Administration’s involvement with yet another country’s military forces “troubling” would be a “rant” only to the skiddish.
It’s not my fault if Secretary Rice makes puzzling comments; the meaning, if there is any, is certainly debatable.
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### Author:  [@Dubious\_Weasle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dubious_Weasle)
#### Post date: [August 8, 2006, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/13 "2006-08-08T08:02:14Z")
Hmm, well color me informed. I knew that travel to Cuba had to be done through third party countries but I wasn’t aware such travel was illegal for private citizens.
Actually, I guess it’s a little more convoluted then that. From brief research (and I do mean brief so if I’m wrong again please correct me) it looks like while it is not technically illegal to travel to Cuba it is illegal to spend money there if you are not part of a specifically authorized group.
Of course, this pretty much amounts to the same thing (banning travel) just by means of a blatantly slimy loophole.
Still, while I am surprised I’m not sure why. It’s not as if our Nation’s policy on Cuba has ever been particularly rational.
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### Author:  [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)
#### Post date: [August 8, 2006, 8:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/14 "2006-08-08T08:12:41Z")
Last night I heard on the BBC World Service that Bush does not want Cuban Americans to get involved in Cuban politics.
Thinking about it, that is rather (surprizingly) sensible.
If they do decide to cobble together some sort of ‘democratic’ government, it needs to be run by the people currently pulling the levers
- only they can ensure a peaceful transition
- and if they feel threatened, they would turn ‘insurgent’
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### Author:  [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)
#### Post date: [August 9, 2006, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/15 "2006-08-09T05:24:35Z")
> [@](#):
>
> **FRDE** : Last night I heard on the BBC World Service that Bush does not want Cuban Americans to get involved in Cuban politics.
I can understand why he would _prefer_ that Cuban-Americans not rush in mass to Cuba and cause or add to what might become a chaotic situation if Fidel Castro is dying or dead or if the shift in power is not made smoothly.
But since when do Bush’s preferences for natural born Cubans who are living in America become set in stone? Can they become “involved” only at his will?
Has anyone heard anything more in U.S. news?
Is there much discussion of this in Miami?
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [August 9, 2006, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/16 "2006-08-09T05:31:30Z")
> [@Zoe](#):
>
> I can understand why he would _prefer_ that Cuban-Americans not rush in mass to Cuba and cause or add to what might become a chaotic situation if Fidel Castro is dying or dead or if the shift in power is not made smoothly.
:dubious: Well, **I** can’t! He’s never before been averse to actions that might lead to a “chaotic situation”!
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### Author:  [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)
#### Post date: [August 9, 2006, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-and-the-cuban-military-forces/367663/17 "2006-08-09T11:46:23Z")
> [@Zoe](#):
>
> I can understand why he would _prefer_ that Cuban-Americans not rush in mass to Cuba and cause or add to what might become a chaotic situation if Fidel Castro is dying or dead or if the shift in power is not made smoothly.
>
> But since when do Bush’s preferences for natural born Cubans who are living in America become set in stone? Can they become “involved” only at his will?
>
> Has anyone heard anything more in U.S. news?
>
> Is there much discussion of this in Miami?
Probably he can prevent USA citizens getting involved, it is likely that the more prominent and wealthy ones are fairly well known, freezing the odd bank account would slow them down.
Most likely he (or rather his advisors) would prefer to explain why they should let the pot cool down, rather than jumping in and making it boil over.
On the BBC World Service they were reporting that one of Fidel’s old pals who turned dissident has dropped off the tree.
It kept popping up, so they must see some significance, they are not a propoganda service, more a News Clipping operation that underlines things in red.
A cynic might interpret that report as indicating that a night of the long knives is in progress, so that Castro-ites turned ‘democrats’ don’t have too much competition. A cynic might consider that a very sensible solution.
Actually I’ve noticed that Bush’s administration seem to be doing smarter things recently - probably he has lost an internal power struggle to a faction that would like to avoid being trashed in 1998.