# Bush to announce new Iraq policy Wednesday **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 8, 2007, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190 "2007-01-08T19:11:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/21 "2007-01-09T00:22:57Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] But aren’t they hoping the next POTUS will be a Dem? The less of a mess he/she has to clean up, the better. [/QUOTE] Bush’s motivations seem to be even more parochial - he just wants somebody \*else \* to have to be the one who orders the evacuation, no matter how many more lives it takes. And it isn’t just Bush, it’s the cadre of yes-men around him, whose own careers depend just as much as his imge of his own legacy does on not ever having to accept the consequences of their actions. But if the evacuation is ordered by a Democratic President, then yes, \*of course \* you’ll be hearing for years to come from the usual quarters about how the Democrats lost Iraq, and all we had to do was stay the course just a few more Friedmans. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/22 "2007-01-09T00:31:38Z")
I mildly disagree. Difficult as it is to attempt to find reason and motive in the bottomless murk that is GeeDub’s mind, I don’t really think he is seeking to “run out the clock” and hand over the problem to somebody else. I think he is more delusional than that. I think he is stalling for time, not to run out the clock but because he believes that its going to start raining ponies any minute now, if he but hold on just a _little_ longer. As far as providing an opportunity for knuckle-walking tighty righties to criticize the Sane Party for “losing Iraq”, forget it, they’ll do it anyway. Can’t be their fault, must be ours. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/23 "2007-01-09T00:39:09Z")
But I am taken aback, I must reassess my views. I had thought that this was all going to turn out to be more of the same, just _more_ of the same, but I hear rumors that there are, in fact, bold and decisive elements to this plan. Its going to include a jobs and restoration program! They intend to hire Iraqis to, like, paint schools and…stuff. I am agape, stunned. What a bold and decisive new direction! Takes an original and innovative mind to come up with something like that! If only someone had come up with something like that sooner! (Probably somebody did, but the obstructionist Defeatocrats threatened a veto. Or something.) Or maybe it was one of those lily-livered wimps at State. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/24 "2007-01-09T00:42:07Z")
But there’s more! Also, political benchmarks that the Iraqis must meet, or else Condi Rice will give them a _stern_ scolding. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/25 "2007-01-09T01:13:37Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] But I am taken aback, I must reassess my views. I had thought that this was all going to turn out to be more of the same, just _more_ of the same, but I hear rumors that there are, in fact, bold and decisive elements to this plan. Its going to include a jobs and restoration program! They intend to hire Iraqis to, like, paint schools and…stuff. [/QUOTE] Cite? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/26 "2007-01-09T01:25:00Z")
Ya kidding, **BG**? This stuff is all over the main stream tedia. If you’re serious, sure, but…huh? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/27 "2007-01-09T01:42:25Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Ya kidding, **BG**? This stuff is all over the main stream tedia. If you’re serious, sure, but…huh? [/QUOTE] I must’ve missed it. I get most of my news from _All Things Considered_ (drivetime, y’know?) and a jobs restoration program for Iraq hasn’t been mentioned there the last few days. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/28 "2007-01-09T17:42:54Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Which is to say, you can, of course, prove this, right? [/QUOTE] [Sure](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5672923&postcount=25). From almost exactly 2 years ago: > [@elucidator](#): > > My dark suspicion is that the Bushiviks are pinning their hopes on the [Jan 2005 Iraqi] election. Even if an outbreak of ergot poisoning rendered 85% of the Iraqi public into howling baboons, we will declare the election valid, and the Allawi government the possessors of a ringing endorsement and mandate. Mission accomplished, hand out a bunch of medals, run like hell. Then whatever happens after that, well, heck, we gave them a government, they fucked it up. Not our fault. My addition of the date for clarification. Not so different from what you said a few days ago in [the thread about Bush reshuffling the generals](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8128252&postcount=34): > [@](#): > > I think the Bushiviks are tipping thier hand a bit (seven-deuce, off). Recent events suggest that they are leaning towards the “80% option”, which is to say, opting for an alliance with the Shia against the Sunni. > > \ > > …the simple fact that such a plan might very well “work”. In that if Sunni resitance is crushed, the resultant tyranny of the majority will bear a very close resemblance to stability, in the same way that graveyards are peaceful. A very simple, or simplistic, series of steps: establish stability, declare victory, hand out a bunch of medals and run for the helicopters. Victory. I don’t bring that up simply to say that being wrong then means you’re wrong now. But the reason you were wrong then is the same reason you are wrong now-- you misjudge Bush’s motives. Since he doesn’t consider the invasion to be a failure, he’s not looking for a quick and dirty way to get out and save face. He wasn’t looking for that 2 years ago, and he’s not looking for it now. He really thinks the invasion was the right thing to do and that his vision for Iraq is achievable… and he’s going to keep plugging at until he’s successful or he’s no longer in office. I expect that the latter is what will play out. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/29 "2007-01-09T22:47:00Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Since he doesn’t consider the invasion to be a failure, he’s not looking for a quick and dirty way to get out and save face. He wasn’t looking for that 2 years ago, and he’s not looking for it now. He really thinks the invasion was the right thing to do and that his vision for Iraq is achievable… and he’s going to keep plugging at until he’s successful or he’s no longer in office. I expect that the latter is what will play out. [/QUOTE] Yeppers to all that. Although I still hold that we’ll find our position in Iraq militarily untenable at some point before 1/20/09. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2007, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/30 "2007-01-09T23:54:50Z")
Well, now, **John** , ones opinion should certainly be flexible, especially as the facts on the ground change. I submit for you approval that, yes, indeed, the facts on the ground have changed in the last two years. And the temptation of the “80% solution” is not so much that it allows a way out, an opportunity to flee, but an opportunity to claim victory! And that is the object of desire, that is what he wants: victory. And he appears to believe that it is still attainable, despite massive evidence otherwise. And keep in mind: the “80% solution” would not even have to be expressly stated as such, it can be perfectly implemented by simple neglect, benign or otherwise. All that would be required is to depend solely on the (elected and legitimate) government of Iraq to define who or what is an insurgent target. After all, what independent sources of intelligence are we likely to have? For instance, the current fighting in Baghdad. al-Maliki assures us that his intent is even handed and non-partisan, he is intent on suppressing Shia militia with as much vigor as Sunni, despite the fact that his most secure political base is precisely those Shia. Do you find such a claim credible? What proofs might you demand? And where might you get them? Who will you rely on for your intel to make such a decision? al-Maliki? Bush? The al-Maliki government could hardly have been more explicit in their “fuck you” to the Sunni, which I believe, as I’ve stated, was a deliberate provocation. It could hardly be otherwise. And shortly thereafter, we are assured that an utterly non-partisan suppression of violence is what is taking place, that the al-Maliki government is intent on protecting Sunnis from Shia militia, that he is intent on repudiating and emasculating his power base in the name of reconciliation. I find that hard to believe. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2007, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/31 "2007-01-10T00:18:23Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] I don’t bring that up simply to say that being wrong then means you’re wrong now. But the reason you were wrong then is the same reason you are wrong now-- you misjudge Bush’s motives. Since he doesn’t consider the invasion to be a failure, he’s not looking for a quick and dirty way to get out and save face. He wasn’t looking for that 2 years ago, and he’s not looking for it now. He really thinks the invasion was the right thing to do and that his vision for Iraq is achievable… and he’s going to keep plugging at until he’s successful or he’s no longer in office. I expect that the latter is what will play out. [/QUOTE] I have a sinking feeling you’re right, **John** – even if it means [losing Afghanistan.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8135015&postcount=63) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2007, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/32 "2007-01-10T00:38:13Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] That’s what you said Bush was going to do after the first Iraqi elections-- declare victory and leave. You can’t underestimate Bush’s firm belief that Iraq can be made into a model democratic state in the M.E. [/QUOTE] Had conditions on the ground permitted such, he would have: banners flying, trumpets blaring, amendments offered making GeeDub President for Life… Conditions did not permit, we wouldn’t have gotten on the airplanes before the shit blew up. So instead of the elections being offered as proof that something _had_ happened, they were offered as proof that something _was_ happening. What it actually revealed was that the sectarian divisions were far deeper than we had previously imagined. So, yeah, I stand by that 2 year old statement: if he could have gotten away with it, you bet he would have! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2007, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/33 "2007-01-10T00:59:13Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Had conditions on the ground permitted such, he would have: banners flying, trumpets blaring, amendments offered making GeeDub President for Life… [/quote] Those are some pretty wild conditions (my emphasis). > [@](#): > > Conditions did not permit, we wouldn’t have gotten on the airplanes before the shit blew up. So instead of the elections being offered as proof that something _had_ happened, they were offered as proof that something _was_ happening. What it actually revealed was that the sectarian divisions were far deeper than we had previously imagined. But that’s exactly what you were predicting… that we’d get out of there before “shit blew up”. Why didn’t we? The outcome of the election was actually **much better** than the situation you feared-- miserably poor turnout. > [@](#): > > So, yeah, I stand by that 2 year old statement: if he could have gotten away with it, you bet he would have! What would it have meant for him to “have gotten away with it”? What exactly would he have gotten away with? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2007, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/34 "2007-01-10T02:27:31Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] …But that’s exactly what you were predicting… that we’d get out of there before “shit blew up”. Why didn’t we? The outcome of the election was actually **much better** than the situation you feared-- miserably poor turnout… [/quote] I suppose if you consider an nearly universal Sunni boycott indicative of a ringing endorsement. What actually happened was worse than my fears, rather than a general indifference, there was considerable enthusiasm along _sectarian lines_ As the post itself makes clear, the nub of the discussion (out of which you’ve extracted your “word bite”) is the deteriorating conditions and the proper response thereto, i.e., get the hell out or meet our moral obligations to clean up what we’ve fucked up. That’s what the post is about, right? Besides which, if you didn’t bring this up to imply that I’m wrong, then why did you? Just a nostalgic stroll down memory lane? > [@](#): > > …What would it have meant for him to “have gotten away with it”? What exactly would he have gotten away with? Declaring victory, however tenuous. Duh. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2007, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/35 "2007-01-10T02:30:17Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] > [@](#): > > …What would it have meant for him to “have gotten away with it”? What exactly would he have gotten away with? Declaring victory, however tenuous. Duh. [/QUOTE] Well, but how was he planning to get an aircraft carrier up the Tigris-Euphrates for the “Mission Accomplished” photo op? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2007, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/36 "2007-01-11T01:48:14Z")
Showtime in 15 minutes . . . ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2007, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/37 "2007-01-11T02:05:09Z")
He’s at least already admitted 2006 was a terrible year. The usual “failure isn’t an option” bit, claiming pulling out would result in a theocratic state and Iran would build nukes. Four minutes in he’s already cited 9/11. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2007, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/38 "2007-01-11T02:13:39Z")
“…in keeping with the recomendations of the Iraq study group…” is quite possibley the funniest thing BJ’s ever said. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2007, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/39 "2007-01-11T02:27:04Z")
**It’s a brand new plan!** It’s so far fetched you could put a tail on it, and call it a Monkapotmus. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2007, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190/40 "2007-01-11T02:35:22Z")
Well, on the positive side, he clearly took ownership of mistakes that were made and he didn’t grossly mischaracterize opposing views (“phased pull out” or something like that instead of “cut and run”). I know…My expectations have gotten really low. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bush-to-announce-new-iraq-policy-wednesday/387190.md?page=3)