Gore doesn’t have a prayer of getting the democratic nomination. He is garnering some interest now because he is the only “serious” contender to have thrown his hat into the ring (sorta, kinda, we’ll see, maybe) who has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
The problems with Gore:[ul]* Resume hole
Remember 2000
Reinvented personality (again)
Insufficient hometown support (Bush won TN)[/ul]When the Dems get around to beating each other up during the primaries (instead of just Bush bashing). Gore will get hammered by a lot of people who will effectively say “He had his chance and blew it. Next please.”
Will Bush get his second term? Good question. But I think it is too early to answer.
I would say it will depend on:[ul]* The economy. This was going to take a hit post September 11 no matter who was boss. Bush, like any president, is in a similar position as a football quarterback, he gets more blame and more credit than he really deserves. If it recovers (which is a decent bet) he may well come out OK
Scandals. A lot of Bush’s “shaky” past has already been out and debated for some time. He can’t afford anything new or, at least, the public perception of anything new.
Effectiveness of Administration. With a wartime footing people were willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. But even now this is changing. I see Ashcroft as his biggest hindrance, but also as the likely “fall guy” if anything goes horribly wrong.
The opponent. It really all comes down to this. If the Dems get a decent guy (no idea who), get him early, get him to unite the party, and get him safely past any scandals, they stand a very good chance of unseating the president.[/ul]
Well, he was quoted in the NYT a week or two ago as saying that if he does run (and that’s something I WILL bet on. It’s a sure thing.), he won’t be pandering to anyone. He learned his lessons from 2000 and this time he’s going to run from his heart, not the polls. It would be thrilling if he did.
The NYT also said, or perhaps I read it somewhere else, that his contributors are holding up, and that was the big question. Would the money be there? And it looks like it will be.
My prediction (tinged with not a small amount of hope):
Gore, having learned his lessons, runs a balls out campaign, speaking honestly about what he believes, thinks and plans to do, with no tailoring for anyone. His message is exactly what America wants, and he wins.
Having learned his lessons, he procedes to actually have the presidency that will matter, and do everything the way he probably would not have done it had he won in 2000, and is resoundingly re-elected, having had one of the most successful, scandal-free, effective and simply “good” presidencies of the last 100 years.
Well, it would be nice to be surprised by Mr. Gore for once, Stoid, and a lot of people would have to change their opinion of the man if he did “run from the heart.” I’m nowhere near as confident as you are that he’s willing to do it. But I don’t think it’s too late, either, so I’ll stick my neck out with a prediction.
If Gore campaigns boldly, he’ll get the Democratic nod. If Bush remains Bush, and Cheney stays VP, Gore will win in '04. If Cheney resigns or is impeached, all bets are off. (He could be the goat for the Repub’s current scandal woes, leaving Bush in a better position for '04.)
Yesterday there was an Ipsos-Reid poll showing Bush’s popularity had dropped 13 points (to a still-impressive 62) and that more Americans think the country’s headed in the wrong direction instead of the right. Not good trends considering the midterms are coming up in less than three months (the first time I get to vote–yay!).
The 2002 midterms are going to be a very good barometer for his chances. I’d be worried if the Dems retook the House, because it’s a very uphill fight due to redistricting (most a partisan wash, but it resulted in fewer competitive seats, so there are fewer chances for pickups).
The Senate is genuinely a tossup, breaking down right now as one Republican seat that’s very endangered, almost to the point of leaning Democrats, two Democratic seats that are tossups that could be leaning toward the Republicans, then two from each side that are genuine tossups that nobody can predict and about 7 more competitive seats, though not close right now. If the Dems get even a 2- or 3-seat pickup that could pose trouble for Bush as well.
Of course, Clinton survived after the 1994 midterms, so Bush will have to replicate his turnaround. Clinton won in 1996 by, among other things, riding a strong economy, caving to some Republican demands, portraying his enemies as mean-spirited and vindictive, and by using his great political skills.
Bush probably won’t have a strong economy to ride on, I’m not sure how much he’d cave to Democratic demands, it’s tougher to portray Dick Gephardt as evil than Newt Gingrich, but he can still do it, and he doesn’t have Clinton’s political skills. I wouldn’t write him off if the GOP doesn’t do well in November, but I’d bet he’d have a tougher time.
Geeze Stoid, I’d prefer Gore to Bush anyday, but that’s some pie-in-the-sky dream you are having! Gore is still a politician, and him quitting pandering is about as likely as W publicly becoming a Wiccan.
Not that I wouldn’t be happy if your prediction came true!
I really have the sense that Gore is going to sit this one out - maybe even against his own wishes.
While Sen. Kerry, Rep. Gephardt, Sen. Lieberman are the big fish, Sen. John Edwards has the aura to captivate the public. He will be the nominee and will ask Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont to join him on the ticket. Even when Bush surprises everyone by asking Colin Powell to run as the new VP candidate, it is too late, and Bush loses in an electoral landslide.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Broodha *
**While Sen. Kerry, Rep. Gephardt, Sen. Lieberman are the big fish, Sen. John Edwards has the aura to captivate the public. He will be the
Obviously the fall '02 elections come first (coming soon, to a House of Representatives near you: Katherine Harris, R- FL).
But Sen. Edwards is a multimillionaire trial lawyer who made his fortune suing miscreant corporations. Dem nominee Edwards, in front of the cameras, would debate W until W jibbered like a spider monkey.
Hopefully Gore realizes early that his time is past, and throws his support to Edwards for a promise of … oh I don’t know … a seat on the Supreme Court? Muahahahahahaa!!
Seems like most of the Democrat ‘big fish’ have had their shot already. John Edwards is one of the few politicians (along with John McCain) I can stand to watch without feeling like I’m being fed a major line of crap, for the most part. Whether he’d take the gloves off and fight on through the ugliness and stupid shit that inevitably ensues in a presidential campaign is another story.
Clinton is interesting because my knee-jerk response would be “no way”. But then I remember that she, a rookie (sort of), not even being a resident for any meaningful length of time in NY, worked her ass off and won the Senate race in a state with a fairly hefty Republican contingent. Part of me still says “no way” though.
I wouldn’t write Bush off, since he won in 2000 (in his own inimitable way) despite his problems. If won then, he can win again, especially if Gore ran again. If Bush ran on “giving us our money back” - except this time the money we lost due to corrupt (but legal! :rolleyes: ) business practices he’d be a shoo-in. Running on being like a CEO probably won’t cut it next time around. Or will we have forgotten all about it by then?
A clear victory (doesn’t have to be a landslide, just indisputable) would be nice.
mods - somehow that little blip with the partial quote before this got posted while I was previewing. Please delete it.
Hmmm, straight up odds on a $90 bottle of Macallan? I’m sorely tempted, Rick, but wagering on the Internet isn’t one of my usual vices. But I will happily buy a fine single-malt (mine is more often Talisker) on Election Night 2004 and meet you in MPSIMS.
Nine oi these scenarios will happen. From out of nowhere will come the announcement that shakes the foundations of government, and perhaps the world: John McCain turns Democrat!! And he wants to run as President, with Colin Powell as running mate!!.
As the wrestling announcers will say, “Business has just picked up!”
Prediction #1: Cheney will not be Bush’s running mate in 2004.
By then, some of Cheney’s business past will have caught up with him, so he’ll have that baggage to lug around. And let us not forget his heart condition, which appears worse to me than the press really let on; statistically, he doesn’t have six more years.
If Colin Powell wanted to be President, he’d be President right now. I don’t think he’d accept a VP nod. Then again, I also don’t think he’d get one. I’ve seen wavering support of Bush on the far right, and if a viable third-party candidate comes along, he may have to pick a hard-core right-winger to keep them from jumping ship.
Prediction #2: If Bush wins in 2004, his second term will be marked by scandal and mostly toothless.
Bush has almost certainly had some questionable dealings in the past, and by then his detractors will have had enough time to root them out into the open. His political capital will be shot to hell, and he’ll coast out for four years only to be replaced by a Democrat (maybe Hillary by then).
I don’t know anything about John Edwards, despite the fact that I just moved to his state. I like what I’ve heard, though, and I hope the Democrats have enough sense to know a losing horse when it sees one and put Gore out to pasture.
Yeah…and a much heftier Democratic one. She ran a good race, but unless Bush breaks the live boy/dead girl law, she wouldn’t have a forking prayer against him. I don’t think we’re dumb enough to nominate her (even though we did nominate Mike Dukakis–what were you people smoking in 1988?).
I agree that Cheney probably won’t make it to 2004. This Haliburton mess is just another albatross around his neck. I think Bush will go for a leg up in the electoral college. Some candidates
Tom Ridge: I don’t think it’ll happen, but he should be mentioned. Beloved in Pennsylvania (a Bush loss in 2000) he was a competent governor, but he’s pro-choice (can you say legitimate third-party right-wing candidate?) and he hasn’t exactly wowed people with his handling of the Homeland Security Department. Still, he makes everybody’s short list.
John Danforth: He was actually on the 2000 short list too, but Bush wanted Cheney all along. He’s a well-respected former minister from Missouri, think a Republican Joe Lieberman, and he’d be tough to make pot shots at.
Connie Mack: He had a cancer scare a while back, but he’s better now and he could be a candidate for this spot. Bush didn’t exactly like his margin of victory in Florida (or lack thereof, I bet there are some threads from November 2000 if you want to pick a fight now) and Mack would definitely help him there. Still to be seen is whether he’s got the fire in the belly for public office.
I don’t think Bush would pick a rising star like Bill Frist of Tennessee or Mark Sanford of South Carolina (if he wins the governorship of SC this year watch out for him in 2008) because he values loyalty and somebody with an eye on the presidency could be too much of a maverick for him. As for Powell, if he wanted to run he could’ve done it in '96 when he had the best chance. I think he sees SoS as a fitting capstone to his career.
[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Bricker *
OK, so this thread is 28 months premature.
But I’m going to ignore prudence, and declare today that Bush will win reelection in 2004.
[qoute]
I believe you mean to say that Bush will win his first (Presidential) election in 2004. You’re wrong, of course.
After this last week. An honest man, as McCain seems to be, is actually quite likely to beat him for the nomination. At present I’m giving McCain even odds.
Gore will win in a walk because he no longer has the Clinton sleaze factor working against him. Bush did a masterful job of pretending to be a principled person in contrast to Clinton, and to pretend that substantive issues were so trivial that the public could afford treat the election like a popularity contest. Gore losses to Bush on that basis. However it is entirely clear now that who you want to have a beer with is NOT more important that who has the best policies. Gore wins nearly every round in that competition. Knowing what we know now, Gore would beat Bush in an unrigged election 60/40. And even in another rigged election he would still win.
Gore. His message in the 2000 election is starting to look downright precient. Also since he beat Bush once, he can do it again. This time he just has to beat him by such a large margin that the Courts can’t take it away. The Democratic leadership don’t want him to run, but the people who actually vote are still behind him.
No chance. As of this week Bush is toast. He will never again get the softball treatment from the press, and without that, he has no chance at all of winning an election against a higher primate.
