# Bush's "Mideast democracy" speech
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [November 7, 2003, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901 "2003-11-07T15:44:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 5
### Author:  [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/81 "2003-11-11T12:53:43Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by cmkeller \*
> \*\*
> Probably pretty likely, once a constitution is drafted. Why do you think the Provisional Authority is not representative of Iraqis?
> \*\*
One can only hope that you’re confusing the CPA w/ the IGC. I’ve only ever heard people make this sort of comment about the IGC. In some senses of the word the IGC _is_ “representative” of Iraq. One thing that sticks out w/o the need for great number crunching is the disproportionate representation, (compared w/ their relative numbers in the Iraqi general population), of returning expats.
The IGC itself has its own issues w/ credibility in Iraq and the ME.
Here’s a link to a State Dept **Office of Research** Opinion Analysis from Oct 21, **3** 003\* @ the CPA’s site, (Coalition Provisional Authority), [Iraqi Public Has Wide Ranging Preferences for a Future Political System](http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/political_poll.pdf).
Of note, the relative fame/infamy of the various members of the IGC. [Ahmad Chalabi](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3326581#post3326581)
\*no kidding:smack:
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### Author:  [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/82 "2003-11-11T13:57:08Z")
Any stock market tips in that report ? 😉
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### Author:  [@kwildcat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kwildcat)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/83 "2003-11-11T15:03:32Z")
**Beagle** , your desire to “move on”, as it were, is laudable in one sense - it is often necessary to put the past behind us in order to focus our energies and attention, and Americans have an historic and unique ability to consistently move and focus “forward”. None of the people conscientiously objecting to the current state of affairs in Iraq or bemoaning the serious problems running up to the Iraq invasion are disputing the need to continue to move forward and the desire to achieve a positive outcome (regardless of what they think constitutes a positive outcome).
You (and a great many pro-Bush and/or conservative dopers) continue, however, to overlook an extremely important component of the decision- and policy-making process: **the ability to critically evaluate and learn from experience.** Disputes over intelligence, analysis, politicization, ideology, realism, honesty, credibility, etc., etc., are NOT just pointless exercises by disaffected intellectuals. They are critical steps in a democratic debate with the explicit purpose of making the _next_ public policy decision better than the last.
The continual rose-colored assessments by the Bush administration talking heads is not explicitly dishonest on its face - as people have shown, there are certainly positive achievements on the ground. **But the constant denial of negative reports by the administration, and it’s complete disregard for evidence of credibility gaps, flawed theorizing, and fanciful ideology is indicative of a total lack of intellectual rigor that cannot but bode ill for the future exercise of U.S. foreign policy.**
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### Author:  [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/84 "2003-11-11T15:35:31Z")
It’s limiting the discussion to the Bush Administraton that makes the outcome transparent. I’m more than willing to do an omnibus discussion of all intelligence data leading up to the war, with emphasis on GHWB, Clinton, and Bush (the sanctions era). It would be very interesting to see what foreign intelligence had to say during that whole time period also. To me, the great mystery is what happened to the stuff, if it existed. If it didn’t, why wouldn’t Saddam cooperate more fully?
The latest theory – in a long line – is that Saddam’s experts lied about progress, and there were plans to reconstitute the actual manufacturing after the inspectors left. The missing piece is how Saddam planned (realistically) on getting the sanctions lifted. I think he overestimated the importance of European support. Bush was not unique in considering serious action against Saddam. Taking it, I think really caught Saddam flat-footed. He recovered.
I agree with the bolded part at the bottom. Don’t think I didn’t notice. 😉 I’m all for critical self-examination of intelligence gathering. Problem is, doing it while they are operating makes them useless. Doing it after is too late.
If there is a tie-in here to Mideast democracy, I’d argue that whatever crappy intel got us in here, better be improved to get us out. The special I saw on TV showed some US troops getting a heads up from the local Iraqis on a bomb factory in a house. If someone had caused a spark in that house…
Point being, there are sophisticated terror factories all over Iraq most likely. I think the Islamists are cooperating with the ancien regime for now. The only way to find them is with intel.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/85 "2003-11-11T18:48:41Z")
So you assume the “crappy intel” theory of Bush’s decisionmaking is correct, but not the “crappy _use of intel_ by people who had their minds made up already” theory? That’s where the evidence seems to point, doesn’t it? [This goes into exhaustive detail how](http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F7071FF83A550C718CDDA80994DB404482).
[[url=quickstart.clari.net/qs\_se/webnews/wed/](http://url=quickstart.clari.net/qs_se/webnews/wed/) bl/Uus-bush-un-bush41.Rjl1\_DSN.html]George H.W. Bush’s 1998 book, “A World Transformed”:
“Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have violated our guideline about not changing objectives in midstream, engaging in ‘mission creep,’ and would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible. We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq. The coalition would instantly have collapsed, the Arabs deserting it in anger and other allies pulling out as well. Under those circumstances, there was no viable ‘exit strategy’ we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations’ mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. It would have been a dramatically different – and perhaps barren – outcome.”
[/quote]
“Crappy intel” had nothing to do with ithat decision.
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### Author:  [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/86 "2003-11-11T21:00:00Z")
Does Dad ever speak to Junior? Is it possible we’re seeing an Oedipal conflict played out on a global stage? I wonder about that sometimes.
In other news:
1 -[Bomb in Basra; Bremer Suddenly Heads to DC](http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Iraq.html?hp)
Wonder what’s up that Bremer had to head back to DC? Hmm…
2 - [Center of Baghdad Hit by Mortars; 38 Soldiers Dead So Far in November](http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/11/11/sprj.irq.main/index.html)
3 - [Reconstruction Talk Fades; Military Promises To Increase the Pressure](http://www.msnbc.com/news/870749.asp?0cv=CA01)
This latter is the most discouraging. The point of a guerrilla insurgency against an occupying force is to make them come down hard enough that ordinary life becomes impossible for the general population. The above could easily lead to such an outcome if the Army isn’t careful.
BUT, the occupation’s going swimmingly, you know. We don’t need anymore troops over there, don’t need no UN, don’t need to worry about having to start pulling out the troops next March. Nope, no worries at all.
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### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/87 "2003-11-11T21:05:33Z")
What worries me most about this latest round of “we’re gonna get tough” talk is that it veers dangerously close to “reprisals”, that is, holding the general population accountable for what takes place and punishing accordingly.
And that would be bad. Like WWII was “noisy” and the Black Death “kind of a drag”…that would be “bad”.
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### Author:  [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/88 "2003-11-11T22:16:51Z")
[Just another small, sad story from this afternoon in Baghdad:](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3260469.stm)
"The US military has confirmed that one of its soldiers shot dead the mayor of a highly volatile Baghdad district.
Mohannad Gazi al-Kaabi, who was appointed by the US authorities to run the largely Shia Muslim area of Sadr City in Baghdad, died on Sunday.
He was shot during an altercation with US troops at the local council’s compound. "
Hearing reports here that the number of ‘attacks’ (whatever that might constitute) in and around Baghdad on US forces has been around the 30 a day recently. I didn’t know it was at that level . . . it’s not getting better, is it . . .
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### Author:  [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2003, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/89 "2003-11-11T22:30:07Z")
Ya know, **LC** , we really oughtta have taken lessons from you guys in how to be imperialists and the pitfalls thereof. I mean, if you’re gonna have an empire, you might as well learn how to do it right from the ones who done it before.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2003, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/90 "2003-11-12T00:19:06Z")
**pantom** , [this by Georgie Geyer](http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2003/10/18/bush_srs_message_to_bush_jr/) might help answer your question.
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### Author:  [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2003, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/91 "2003-11-12T02:00:29Z")
Too wierd. I had to go out and find a story about the actual award ceremony, since I see by the date that the award was given on Nov 7.
Kennedy had this to say:
> [@](#):
>
> Kennedy praised the former president for his leadership in helping end the Cold War and for transforming the world “into an almost unimaginably more peaceful place.”
from: [http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/2209193](http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/2209193)
But then again, this was probably a quid pro quo for the following:
> [@](#):
>
> And in yet another of those intriguing political footnotes, it should be noted that Mr. Kennedy has had his own brush with an eyebrow-raising tribute.
> Two years ago, he helped present the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award to former President Gerald Ford for pardoning Richard Nixon after he was forced from the White House in the Watergate scandal.
> “Indeed,” Mr. Ford said in accepting the honor at the Kennedy Library in Boston, “the award committee has displayed its own brand of courage.”
from [http://www.dallasnews.com/dmn/news/stories/110603dntexbushkennedy.a1b18.html](http://www.dallasnews.com/dmn/news/stories/110603dntexbushkennedy.a1b18.html)
(free registration required)
The timing of the award is definitely suspect, though.
Anybody know anyone who might be bugging the Bush family Thanksgiving dinner? Or even better, the private talk Dad and Son may have over brandy and cigars afterward?
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### Author:  [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2003, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/92 "2003-11-12T17:46:48Z")
The occupation continues:
1 -[Huge Bomb Blast Kills Italians, Iraqis](http://www.msnbc.com/news/870749.asp?0cv=CA01)
2 - [CIA Warns Iraqis Are Losing Faith, Joining Resistance](http://www.msnbc.com/news/992513.asp?0cv=CA01)
Juicy quote:
> [@](#):
>
> A new top-secret intelligence report warns that Iraqis are losing faith in U.S.-led occupation forces, a development that is increasing support for the resistance, officials said Wednesday.
> …
> It suggests spiraling violence and a lack of confidence in the U.S.-appointed Iraqi Governing Council may be bringing efforts to a turning point, sending more Iraqis over to the side of insurgents fighting occupation troops, said two officials speaking on condition of anonymity.
> Asked about the increase in guerrilla attacks on coalition forces in Iraq, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told CBS “The Early Show” Wednesday that “these are very intelligent moves that the bad people are making … time is not on our side.”
Can we go back in time and make McCain the Republican nominee and then the President? I hardly agree with him on most issues, but at least he has a brain. At this point, mere competence is all I ask.
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### Author:  [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2003, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/93 "2003-11-12T21:03:47Z")
Well, this isn’t mission _creep_ so much as the mission objective. As I said, other than the massive power vacuum, total chaos, ethnic bloodbath, and civil war that might result from pulling out now – I’m all for it!!!
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### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2003, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/94 "2003-11-12T21:49:50Z")
Anybody here know who friend **Beagle** is talking to? He has firmly rebutted the position of “pulling out now” but I remain a bit confused as to who suggested that we do so.
To encapsulate the political spin of the speech:
“The War was about spreading democracy in the Mideast. I know we told you it was about protecting ourselves from Saddam’s Evil Mojo of Mass Destruction. Those statements are now inoperative, and therefore never happened. It was really a noble crusade…er, ah, noble _endeavor_…to bring democracy to the ME. We would have told you sooner, but we didn’t want to spoil the surprise.”
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### Author:  [@Mtgman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mtgman)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2003, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/95 "2003-11-12T22:23:14Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by Beagle \*
> **What I hear is bickering over pre-war justifications that weren’t mine. I wanted to end the sanctions and Saddam. I thought the HR abuses were excessive. My dad always said we should have “finished the job.” I disagreed at the time, and now think I was wrong.**
I’ve said it before, and I guess I’ll say it again. I _might_ have supported a war on humanitarian grounds. I almost certain that a majority of the US would not have. As it stands, I expect the administration to make good on the promises they made to the majority when they were looking for support for the war. Even though I agreed that Hussein needed to be taken out(although I think it could have been done without full-scale war), I understand that I, a member of a minority, did not have the political muscle to make my views policy. If the administration lied to another group to get them on a bandwagon behind a certain policy, then it is of great interest to me because I still have to interact with them as is my duty in a democracy.
Enjoy,
Steven
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### Author:  [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2003, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/96 "2003-11-13T00:09:25Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by pantom \*
> Ya know, **LC** , we really oughtta have taken lessons from you guys in how to be imperialists and the pitfalls thereof. I mean, if you’re gonna have an empire, you might as well learn how to do it right from the ones who done it before.
This is supposed to be a different kind of empire, one where the primary tools are economic strength and the threat of economic sanction - those supported, in the background, by military might. The British, pre-capitalist explosion, did it ‘tother way around . . . but, all of a sudden, you’ve you’ve got a dose of the _Gordon at Khartoum_’s [– damn Fuzzy-Wuzzy’s](http://whitewolf.newcastle.edu.au/words/authors/K/KiplingRudyard/verse/volumeXI/fuzzywuzzy.html)
Not much for this mob to learn from the British Empire except how to back out the door without falling over. They haven’t got to that page yet.
"
So ’ere’s to you, Fuzzy-Wuzzy, at your ’ome in the Soudan;
You’re a pore benighted ’eathen but a first-class fightin’ man;
An’ ’ere’s to you, Fuzzy-Wuzzy, with your ’ayrick ’ead of ’air—
You big black boundin’ beggar—for you broke a British square! "
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### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2003, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/97 "2003-11-13T00:13:25Z")
He: Do you like Kipling?
She: I don’t know, you naughty boy! I’ve certainly never Kipled!
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### Author:  [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2003, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/98 "2003-11-13T00:57:30Z")
[Dating in Nipples, circa 1940](http://silflayhraka.com/archives/000665.html) (when **'luci** were jus’ a bespeckled lad)
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### Author:  [@Spavined\_Gelding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spavined_Gelding)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2003, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/99 "2003-11-13T03:13:16Z")
For all the abuse the late Mr. Kipling receives, it’s worth remembering that the end of his life was darkened by the tragedy of the death of his only and beloved son in WWI. The boy, like his father, was terribly nearsighted. The old man pulled strings and found him a commission in one of the Guards battalions. He was last seen staggering to the rear crying in pain from a wound that had blown his jaw off. I think the boy’s body was never found. Of all Kipling’s high minded and manly poems, despite all the _East is east and west is west_, and the _you’re a better man than I am, Gunga Din_, and the _a woman’s only a woman, but a good cigar is a smoke_, the most touching of his pieces is this:
_My son was killed while laughing at some jest. I would I knew
What it was, and it might serve me in a time when jests are few._
A man who can write that can blow the trumpet for The Empire all he wants.
Carry on.
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### Author:  [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2003, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bushs-mideast-democracy-speech/211901/100 "2003-11-13T03:29:43Z")
Well, World War One was the end of a lot of things, most of them good. There’s a reason why the era that went before was called _La Belle Epoque_. But that’s another thread entirely. (Yes, I’m really a reactionary at heart. And a hopeless Romantic. So sue me.)
Anyway, getting back to this sorry excuse for an Imperialist we have up there, I saw Admiral Stansfield Turner, former head of the CIA, on CNBC tonight. Know what he said? “We have to internationalize this”. Same as Brzezinski. Same as me.
Meantime, I’m making a shitload in gold betting against this damn fool President and his war. I expect that will continue for the foreseeable future. If this continues, I’ll be writing this from my 50 foot yacht off the coast of my ancestral homeland, Corsica. I’d give that up for a chance to live in a free, prosperous and peaceful country again, though. In a second. Less, even.
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