# By 2020 China is projected to have the largest economy on the planet **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [April 17, 2006, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055 "2006-04-17T20:45:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055/1 "2006-04-17T20:45:45Z")
I thought these projections might be of interest. As a side note I had no idea Iran’s (2005) economy was that large. Answers the question about how they were able to have the money for nuclear research. [The world’s largest economies in 2020](http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6746594) > [@](#): > > By 2020, China will narrowly outstrip the United States in GDP, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, [Current positions](http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html) > [@](#): > > 1 World 59,590,000,000,000 2005 est 2 United States 12,410,000,000,000 2005 est. > 3 European Union 12,180,000,000,000 2005 est. 4 China 8,182,000,000,000 2005 est. > 5 Japan 3,914,000,000,000 2005 est. 6 India 3,699,000,000,000 2005 est. > 7 Germany 2,454,000,000,000 2005 est. 8 United Kingdom 1,869,000,000,000 2005 est. > 9 France 1,822,000,000,000 2005 est. 10 Italy 1,651,000,000,000 2005 est. > 11 Brazil 1,568,000,000,000 2005 est. 12 Russia 1,539,000,000,000 2005 est. > 13 Canada 1,080,000,000,000 2005 est. 14 Mexico 1,068,000,000,000 2005 est. > 15 Spain 1,017,000,000,000 2005 est. 16 Korea, South 965,300,000,000 2005 est. > 17 Indonesia 901,700,000,000 2005 est. 18 Australia 642,100,000,000 2005 est. > 19 Taiwan 611,500,000,000 2005 est. 20 Iran 552,800,000,000 2005 est [Projections out to 2050](http://www.everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=1756826) > [@](#): > > In 2005 the world’s economic system is preeminently dominated by the United States, with a GDP of $11.7 trillion. The other trillionaire countries in existence today are Japan ($4.4 trillion), Germany ($2.0 trillion), China ($1.7 trillion), Britain ($1.7 trillion), France ($1.5 trillion) and Italy ($1.2 trillion). So, let’s us assume that on the basis of economic size alone, those countries would constitute G7 (sorry Russia and Canada). > > Within five years, China overtakes Germany, to become the third largest economy behind the United States and Japan. This is in spite of China’s growth beginning to slow from the breakneck double digit rates of the 1990s to around 7% in 2010, and later to around 5% at the end of the following decade. China’s economy slowly cools, but Japan’s economy is stone cold in comparison, with a real growth rate of barely a percentage point per year in the coming decade. In 2016, China passes the $5 trillion barrier and overtakes Japan to become number two in the world. > > Also around this time, a new contender comes in to challenge Italy’s tenuous membership to G7. India which had a GDP of a mere $604 billion in 2005 is growing at a consistent 6% per year. In 2011 it joins league of trillionaire countries and barely five years later is worth $1.5 trillion. What India enjoys that no other major country in the world has is a growing working age population, and a plentiful supply of Indian workers will help the country maintain a growth rates of around 6% consistently in the 2020s and 2030s. In 2016 India takes over Italy’s position in G7, and shortly later overtakes France (2019) and Britain (2013). > > Not that this spells gloom and doom for the rich countries of yesteryear. Living standards are still high, helped largely by trading and investing in fast growing countries. However, as capital flows to where investment is concentrated, their currencies either soften or remain overvalued. At least GDP per capita is also maintained by the population beginning to shrink - Japan’s population went into decline as early as 2005. Otherwise, in 2020 the order in the G7 appears unchanged, with the United States on the top with a GDP of $16.4 trillion, followed by China ($7.1 trillion), Japan ($5.2 trillion), Germany ($2.5 trillion), Britain ($2.3 trillion), India ($2.1 trillion) and France (trailing the group at $1.9 trillion). ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2006, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055/2 "2006-04-17T22:06:51Z")
Problem with economic prediction that far out. We really don’t know what is going to happen for sure with oil prices and production. China has ramped up big time by importing a lot of oil, some of it fairly cheaply via government-to-government contracts. If we really have “peaked” in oil, China could be in big trouble. It’s only consolation is that so are almost all the other countries on the list. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055/3 "2006-04-18T02:07:51Z")
Well, if Hugo Chavez is right and gets OPEC to confirm it, they’ve got an OBSCENE amount of oil in Venezuela. yay! raise the price! If that happens, and the rest of the world’s resources dry up, Pat Robertson will call for Chavez’s assassination (again). anything to keep his army of suburbans chugging along on jesus juice Whatta dick. white text agrees. he’s a dick. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055/4 "2006-04-18T13:16:47Z")
Another question is this–will the stresses of rapid & uneven social change provoke revolution or sectional secession in China? If so, the predictions go into the loo. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055/5 "2006-04-18T14:09:53Z")
And there was the editorial in the LA Times yesterday which included “For roughly a decade, the global economy has been propelled forward by the insatiable consumption of U.S. households. Consumption accounts for about 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product, and U.S. growth has recently accounted for more than half of global growth. The appetite of Americans for imported clothing and gadgets has been one of the engines of China’s economic miracle.” If the US stops massively consuming stuff, especially stuff made in China, I bet the predictions will be shot to hell. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2006, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-2020-china-is-projected-to-have-the-largest-economy-on-the-planet/353055/6 "2006-04-18T17:12:16Z")
Of course the real irony would be if China had the largest economy on the planet in 2020, but thanks to wars/running out of oil/climate change/etc, that’s the difference between rich people having two oxen for their bullock carts, and rich people having one.