By how much (in the popular vote) must a Democrat outperform the Republican to win the Electoral College?

[DSeid]

@Napier

I’ve heard a few times

Yeah. Some people say ….

Which people say and on what basis?

I think we can do better than having heard something that someone has pulled out of the air and repeating it.

The EC advantage will precisely be the difference between the national result and the result in the tipping point state.

In the last two elections WI was the tipping point state. For the two previous it was CO. The bias relative to the national total was to R 3.8 in 2020, to R 2.9 2016, to D 1.5 2012, and to D 1.7 in 2008. (Source)

IF 2020 repeats the EC advantage is therefore 3.8. Or maybe the trend to more Rward continues and it is 5! But every year has been different and this isn’t Biden anymore.

Currently WI polling runs to D over national 1.5 per 270towin and even per the NYT tracker. PA is even with national numbers in 270towin’s tracker and R plus 1 in the NYT’s one. MI to D 1 in 270towin and even in the NYT’s.

One of those is likely to be the tipping point state. So right now the EC advantage is likely best estimated as zero to 1.

[DSeid]

For interest:

https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article290752629.html

Driving the analysis that Trump may be losing his Electoral College advantage are two demographic phenomena developing over recent elections, multiple experts said.

The first is that Republicans are beginning to win certain states, particularly rural ones like West Virginia or Nebraska, “by highly inefficient numbers,” Lublin said.

Trump has “been running up the vote in some of the plains states and western states,” Kowal said. “So (his) higher margins of victory in those states are actually reducing the Electoral College advantage.”

The second is that, in recent elections, Democrats have been losing some votes in stronghold states, where they still retain majorities, Lublin said.

These demographic shifts could, in theory, create a perfect storm that would see Trump’s edge blunted, or even perhaps forfeited to Harris. elections, multiple experts said.

[Napier]

@DSeid

I think we can do better than having heard something that someone has pulled out of the air and repeating it.

Fair enough! A little searching turns up:

The astounding advantage the Electoral College gives to Republicans, in one...

Electoral College Benefits GOP More Now Than in Last 25 Years: Report

[DSeid]

From 2019 and 2022. Yes in 2020 the GOP EC advantage was big. IF that trend continues… current polling suggests it won’t.

OTOH I can imagine it might mainly because I can imagine Harris piling on extra (“wasted”) CA votes with being from there.

[Wesley_Clark]

I know 2004 was 20 years ago, but in that election Bush won over Kerry by 3 million votes (62 million vs 59 million). This gave Bush 286 EVs and Kerry 251 EVs.

Having said that, if Kerry had won 120k more votes in Ohio, he would’ve won 20 EVs and won the election.

Had Kerry won 130k more votes in NV, NM & CO, he would’ve won the election.

Had Kerry won 300k more votes in AZ and CO, he would’ve won the election.

Had Kerry won 360k or so more votes in VA and CO, he would’ve won the election.

Had Kerry won 400k more votes in FL, he would’ve won the election.

So despite Kerry losing the popular vote by 3 million, he had five different realistic paths to victory in the electoral college despite losing the popular vote, some of which only required 120-130k extra votes in a handful of states.

I don’t know if that kind of imbalance still applies today that could potentially benefit the democrat. The states of CO, NM, AZ, NV and VA have all moved leftward in the last 20 years. Meanwhile OH and FL moved to the right.

Like I said earlier, the vast majority (and sometimes the entire majority) of the popular vote gap can be explained by California.

[Velocity]

The only way I could see a Democrat winning the EC while losing the popular vote is if he performs strongly in the swing states, but severe apathy sets in among Californian and New Yorker Democratic voters.