# By how much is Trump over-performing, in terms of polling? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 16, 2016, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489 "2016-06-16T02:41:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/1 "2016-06-16T02:41:40Z")
I see Trump as being like one of those characters in the olden-day cartoons, where a guy would step off the ledge of a cliff and keep walking in mid-air, not realizing he’s in mid-air, until he looks down and then gravity suddenly takes effect. Last time I checked, Trump was trailing Hillary by **12 percent.** That is a surprisingly small margin considering how much a buffoon Trump is, and how experienced and seasoned a candidate Hillary is. One would reasonably expect Hillary to be leading by 25 percentage points or more. To put this in perspective, Gerald Ford, a far more respectable person than Trump, once trailed Jimmy Carter by a whopping \*\*33% \*\*in the polls in the 1976 election. He eventually came back to lose the election by a margin of only 2% in the popular vote. Four years later, Ronald Reagan trailed Carter by **29%** in the polls at one point, but overcame all of that to rout Carter in an Electoral College landslide victory. Eight years later, George H.W. Bush trailed Dukakis by **17%** in the polls, but eventually overcame that to win a landslide victory, too. Twelve years later, Al Gore once trailed George W. Bush by 17% in the polls, but came all the way back to win the popular vote on Election Day, although losing the Electoral College. All of these cited examples - Ford, Reagan, Bush Sr., and Gore - were eminently more dignified and respectable politicians than Trump. So how is it that Trump faced a narrower losing margin than them? There is one big difference, of course, which is that Trump has no direction to go but down, and will ultimately of course still lose to Hillary in a landslide. But based off where Trump \*ought \*to be at this point, by how much is he over-performing and beating the model? Is he polling about 15% higher than he statistically ought to? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/2 "2016-06-16T03:31:16Z")
Today’s polls are meaningless. They have been for a year. They will be tomorrow. Maybe, possibly, to a certain extent, the polls might be a little bit meaningful starting in September. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/3 "2016-06-16T05:05:16Z")
Interestingly national polls are _more_ predictive in February to March than they are in June and July. Ford-Carter in March? Carter +2. (Same margin as the final) Reagan-Carter-Anderson in March? Reagan +14. (4 off from the final of Reagan +10.) GHW Bush-Dukakis in March? Bush +12. (Polls were +12 in November too and the result was +6.) Gore-GW Bush March? Bush +6 beginning of month and +1 end. Polling Bush +2 in November. Wang did [a fairly comprehensive number crunching](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/). Bottom line for this cycle? > [@](#): > > The November outcome should be within 1 SD of current polls approximately two-thirds of the time. Hillary Clinton’s polling margin over Donald Trump is currently +8% (median of 19 pollsters since mid-March) – twice the standard deviation. Based on past years, how likely is it that Trump can catch up? It is possible to convert Clinton’s lead to a probability using the t-distribution\*, which can account for outlier events like 1964 and 1980. Using this approach, the probability that Trump can catch up by November is 9%, and the probability that Clinton will remain ahead of Trump is 91%\*\*. This probability doesn’t take into account Electoral College mechanisms. But since the bias of the Electoral College is quite small, it does not make a difference in the calculation. Of course Wang gives the very appropriate cautions: > [@](#): > > However, it is subject to change. For example, the SD increases to about 7% in June, which combined with a lead of Clinton +8% corresponds to an 83% win probability, less certain than today. And of course the polls could change. I don’t know why polls would be less predictive in summer. … Polls now tell us something. What demographics are responding how in the moment. Trump is the (problematic) nominee of a major party that has not lost by more than 8 points since 1964 and has had some blow out victories along the way. Not sure where he “should” be polling given that. ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/4 "2016-06-16T05:52:08Z")
Unlike past candidates Trump is volatile and unpredictable. He might wage a comeback and draw closer or pull ahead, or he might continue to sink and sink further until it becomes obvious he won’t win and he either gets badly defeated or withdraws in favor of a more electable candidate. But either way I don’t think the poll performances of past candidates has any bearing whatever on Trump’s chances. ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/5 "2016-06-16T10:54:37Z")
How can any thinking person still, in this day and age, believe any poll released? I thought by now pretty much everyone knew how easily manipulated and misleading they can be, by design. Is anyone really being swayed by the numbers of any of the numerous polls released each day? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/6 "2016-06-16T11:36:53Z")
There’s a historically more accurate form of polling: betting odds. The last time betting odds favored a losing candidate was 1916. And Clinton is a strong favorite over Trump. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/7 "2016-06-16T12:45:34Z")
I think the polling is pretty accurate in tracking how voters are firming up their decisions in a primary season that offered an unreasonable number of choices. Both Clinton and Trump have a strong base of people who are voting for or against one of them. The rest are migrating one direction or the other, and because Trump is acting insane their mainly migrating away from him. If this keeps up Hillary is looking at at 60/40 win which is a landslide in presidential elections on a popular vote basis, and maybe even in states as well. There talking heads are saying there may be a very low turnout this year, something that may tighten it up for Trump but at this pace not enough to make a difference in November. My conclusion is that the volatility in polls right now simply reflects the lack of commitment to one candidate by a slightly larger than normal number of people. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/8 "2016-06-16T13:07:01Z")
Top tip: forget polling. Look at the trading markets: Clinton: 1.33 (1/3) Trump: 4.6 (3.6/1) > **[Betfair Exchange | Best Odds Online, Back and Lay Betting](https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419)** > > The Betfair Exchange allows you the opportunity to back and lay bets and Cash Out. We also offer Casino, Poker, Games and Bingo. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/9 "2016-06-16T14:15:12Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Top tip: forget polling. Look at the trading markets: Some people say that but really betting sites are probably about the same accuracy as averaging reliable polls. I mean how do you think people decide where to lay bets? [http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated) ---
**Author:** ![Crybaby\_Boobie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crybaby_boobie/32/545_2.png) [@Crybaby\_Boobie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crybaby_Boobie)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/10 "2016-06-16T14:26:28Z")
I wonder how Trump would poll against a hypothetical Obama third term or a Biden run. Would Obama get a 30 point difference? More? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/11 "2016-06-16T14:40:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Some people say that but really betting sites are probably about the same accuracy as averaging reliable polls. I mean how do you think people decide where to lay bets? > > [Bloomberg - Are you a robot?](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated) That aggregated polls (when available) did better than the betting markets did not surprise me (after all Wang’s pure poll approach has been giving odds not too far off from the betting markets) … but [online Survey Monkey](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-expands-lead-after-becoming-presumptive-nominee-n591531) doing the best??? That surprises. Hard to believe really. FWIW its current numbers are also Clinton +7 in the RV universe. > [@](#): > > Clinton leading Trump by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. The poll was conducted online June 6 through June 12 among 9,355 adults who say they are registered to vote. > > Clinton’s gains over the past two weeks in the tracking poll are coming from increases in support among moderates, men and white voters. She narrowed Trump’s margin among men and white voters from double digits in last week’s poll to single digits this week. Clinton picked up 7 points among moderate voters this week and now leads Trump 58 percent to 33 percent among them. > > Trump’s margin among male voters dropped from 14 points last week to 9 points this week and he now leads Clinton 51 percent to 42 percent. His 13-point margin among white voters last week also shrank to 9 points this week. … > > … The four-way horserace question — in addition to asking about Clinton and Trump — also listed Gary Johnson (the Libertarian candidate) and Jill Stein (the Green Party candidate) as additional third party options. The results from this question also show Clinton gaining on Trump. She now enjoys 42 percent support; Trump has 38 percent, Johnson has 9 percent support and Stein has 5 percent. Support for Johnson and Stein remained consistent from last week’s results — but Clinton now leads Trump by 4 points. In last week’s four-way horserace results, Clinton trailed Trump by a single point — 39 percent to 40 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/12 "2016-06-16T15:00:24Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > All of these cited examples - Ford, Reagan, Bush Sr., and Gore - were eminently more dignified and respectable politicians than Trump. So how is it that Trump faced a narrower losing margin than them? > > There is one big difference, of course, which is that Trump has no direction to go but down, and will ultimately of course still lose to Hillary in a landslide. The other big difference is an electorate far, far more polarized than the ones that elected Carter and Reagan. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/13 "2016-06-16T16:32:24Z")
> [@elbows](#): > > How can any thinking person still, in this day and age, believe any poll released? > > I thought by now pretty much everyone knew how easily manipulated and misleading they can be, by design. > > Is anyone really being swayed by the numbers of any of the numerous polls released each day? I responded to this and another polling post [over here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19410251&postcount=40) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/14 "2016-06-16T18:26:37Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I think the polling is pretty accurate in tracking how voters are firming up their decisions in a primary season that offered an unreasonable number of choices. Both Clinton and Trump have a strong base of people who are voting for or against one of them. The rest are migrating one direction or the other, and because Trump is acting insane their mainly migrating away from him. If this keeps up Hillary is looking at at 60/40 win which is a landslide in presidential elections on a popular vote basis, and maybe even in states as well. There talking heads are saying there may be a very low turnout this year, something that may tighten it up for Trump but at this pace not enough to make a difference in November. My conclusion is that the volatility in polls right now simply reflects the lack of commitment to one candidate by a slightly larger than normal number of people. If current trends don’t reverse, Clinton should have an easy win. But say what you will about Clinton and Trump, they’re not bland. There are plenty of voters who actively hate both of them. That could motivate voter turn out. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/15 "2016-06-16T18:29:09Z")
If there’s any credit I give him for, its that Trump is unpredictable. Surely after the election someone will come up with a formula that ties in the polls and their predictability for 2016 with past polls, but I suspect it may be a harder job that simply going with what’s working. When it comes to this year, I think this xkcd comic will be telling: [Electoral Precedent](https://xkcd.com/1122/) Instead of saying what will never happen and being wrong when it does, maybe we can try the opposite. Come November 2016, we’ll be saying one of the following: 1. It doesn’t matter that Clinton is historically disliked, she ran against the one guy who was even more disliked than she is. Bernie made a lot of noise in the primaries and Democrats like to fall in love, but in the end, they fell in line and voted for her. None of the GOP attacks on her mattered because they’ve been attacking her for 30 years and that simply gets old. Nothing new will pop up with her, Americans realized Benghazi was full of shit and did anyone really think some emails would have disqualified her? 2. Trump captured the country like no one ever has. His TV background and histrionic personality was exactly what woke the country up from its stupor. In this age of 24 hour news and the internet, a candidate has to evolve to appeal to what people are paying attention to. Americans don’t want boring, complicated speeches, they want soundbites that zings the other person. After enduring wars and a recession and historically high levels of income gap between the rich and poor, they’re ready to follow anyone as long as he tells them what they want to hear. Candidates in the future better smarten up and realize that their sobering reality is no match for a comforting fantasy ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/16 "2016-06-16T18:31:14Z")
What makes this election different than many in the past is the fact that both candidates are more widely known to the electorate than in many of the cases you cite. Carter was “Jimmy Who” 1n '76. Dukakis was a relative unknown. Gore had spent 8 years in Clinton’s (big) shadow. Even people who don’t follow politics can ID Hillary and Donald. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/17 "2016-06-16T19:40:35Z")
Given the trend of ideological polarization over the last decades, one would expect less volatility in the presidential polling. That is, people are a lot more aligned with their tribal partisan affiliation and less likely to “cross the aisle,” which means we would expect most modern elections to lack gaps greater than 15 points or so. I suspect that phenomenon alone is enough to explain the OP. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2016, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/by-how-much-is-trump-over-performing-in-terms-of-polling/757489/18 "2016-06-16T20:19:09Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > If current trends don’t reverse, Clinton should have an easy win. But say what you will about Clinton and Trump, they’re not bland. There are plenty of voters who actively hate both of them. That could motivate voter turn out. Very true. It’s another unknown in this election, we haven’t had two candidates with such high negatives before. I thought 2008 hit new levels of negativity, that wasn’t anything compared to this.