# Bye Bye Perry. Can't Say I'm Surprised **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 19, 2012, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009 "2012-01-19T14:43:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/1 "2012-01-19T14:43:09Z")
According to NPR this morning, [and other sources](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/daywatch/chi-120119rick-perry,0,2806665.story), Rick Perry will announce that he’s dropping out of the race for the presidency at 11:00 Eastern time, this morning. Will this, in the esteemed opinion of dopers, have any impact on the race? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/2 "2012-01-19T14:48:36Z")
Not really, it still leaves Romney with the same three **real** challengers as before: Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. The question of who gets Perry’s supporters now is not even a game-changer. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/3 "2012-01-19T14:51:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Not really, it still leaves Romney with the same three **real** challengers as before: Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. The question of who gets **Perry’s supporters** now is not even a game-changer. I suppose both of them will just go back to Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/4 "2012-01-19T15:03:13Z")
I think Perry will get voted out of office in Texas come next election is all. I don’t think he was very impressive in his run for the Presidency and Texans will want someone else for governor. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/5 "2012-01-19T15:04:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Not really, it still leaves Romney with the same three **real** challengers as before: Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul. The question of who gets Perry’s supporters now is not even a game-changer. Dude, you can’t even count to two! Rumor is, Perry will endorse Gingrich. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/6 "2012-01-19T15:06:31Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Will this, in the esteemed opinion of dopers, have any impact on the race? The latest polls in SC show Romney dipping a bit and Gingrich up a bit. Since Perry is supposed to endorse Gingrich, that may bring it a bit closer. I still see Romney winning in SC, and I still see him winning the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Terraplane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@Terraplane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terraplane)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/7 "2012-01-19T15:08:44Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I think Perry will get voted out of office in Texas come next election is all. I want this to happen so much. I think this presidential campaign is probably the first real look at Perry that most (or at least a lot of) Texans have ever really had. I hope now that he’s shown himself to be an idiot in front of the entire nation we might finally be rid of him. ---
**Author:** ![Enderw24](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ba9def/32.png) [@Enderw24](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enderw24)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/8 "2012-01-19T15:15:47Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Dude, you can’t even count to two! No, it’s three. Gingrich, Paul and And… Um, the Department of Energy? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/9 "2012-01-19T15:20:41Z")
> [@Terraplane](#): > > I want this to happen so much. I think this presidential campaign is probably the first real look at Perry that most (or at least a lot of) Texans have ever really had. I hope now that he’s shown himself to be an idiot in front of the entire nation we might finally be rid of him. Just out of curiosity, then, how did he manage to get elected **in Texas** without revealing his idiocy? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/10 "2012-01-19T15:21:02Z")
Buh-bye, you fucking Bush-clone dimwit. The entertainment value wasn’t worth having to listen to your half-assed ideas. All you did was bring up bad memories of the worst president of modern times. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/11 "2012-01-19T15:23:07Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Dude, you can’t even count to two! > > Rumor is, Perry will endorse Gingrich. Yeah, I heard the same thing. With what happened to Iowa and Perry dropping out. I think we could see this thing go to Super Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/12 "2012-01-19T15:43:50Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Just out of curiosity, then, how did he manage to get elected **in Texas** without revealing his idiocy? One element was that he refused to debate the democratic challenger, Houston mayor Bill White. Another was his refusal to meet with and be questioned by newspaper editorial boards. Note that he accused White of refusing to debate him (Perry) 😕😕 WTF. A claim rated as “Pants on Fire” by Politifact. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/13 "2012-01-19T15:53:08Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Just out of curiosity, then, how did he manage to get elected **in Texas** without revealing his idiocy? Well, he was fortunate enough to be “in” with the party elite and eventually took over the Republican Party in Texas. He got a few lucky breaks and played his advantages very well. Note that back in '06, he won re-election with about 39% of the popular vote (no run-offs in Texas and there was a 3-way race). So, even in Texas, he’s not all that popular. He just happens to be the only realistic option (that is, a Republican on the ballot). If you happened to pay attention to Republican politics at the time, it was a major sign that Perry might have problems in a nation-wide race. It also killed any ambitions he had in '08 for a run at the White House or a VP nod. Back in '98, he was a fairly popular guy among the politicians in Austin and got the nod for Lt Gov and rode in on George W Bush’s coattails. From there, it was a simple matter to the governor’s office when Bush became POTUS. And once he was Governor, it was pretty simple to stay there. He had a hammerlock on the Party, so he could hold off competition in the primaries. He hasn’t had to say or do anything remotely controversial in over a decade. It’s no surprise that he was caught flat-footed when he had to appeal to a larger voter base. ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/14 "2012-01-19T16:08:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Just out of curiosity, then, how did he manage to get elected **in Texas** without revealing his idiocy? He caught several lucky breaks. He was actually elected Lieutenant Governor 1998. Texas is odd in that this isn’t a package ticket with the governor, but in Texas having the (R) next to his name was good enough for this office. W. Bush then gets elected President of the US and Perry inherits the office of Governor, so he’s never actually ran for it without being the incumbent, which is a nice benefit in US politics. Next election it all breaks Perry’s way. 2002 was good year to run Republican, Texas sees a nasty Democratic primary for governor, (one candidate makes accusations of connections to Mexican drug lords about the guy who goes on to face Perry), and he’s an incumbent. Perry wins. 2006 has pair of independents enter and split the race. The Democratic challenger is hurt more than Perry by the two of them. 2010 he gets a ton of GOP backing. Add in the polarized GOP vs. Democrat and he wasn’t going to lose any Republican voters. Being a 2 and 1/2 term incumbent in a red state allowed him to get away with lot. Like avoiding having to talk as much, which cut down on the amount of stupid stuff he normally would have said. It should be noted that some places, namely Houston, have more or less hated Perry since day one. Despite that I think that if he had never entered the primary he could have kept being elected governor as long as he wanted. The longer you’re in office the easier it is to keep that office. Fortunately Perry is too dumb to see that he had never done anything like this primary before. He wasn’t in a position of strength as the incumbent, something he’s never faced as governor. He didn’t have the full support of the GOP but had to try and get people to vote for him based on more than just the (R) behind his name. A new thing for Perry. And as the new guy he couldn’t avoid interviews and debates, saying stupid things was inevitable for him. The more _Republican_ voters got to compare him to other Republicans is what is going to doom him in Texas. There’s no pretending he’s not an idiot now. ---
**Author:** ![fumster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9c0ed/32.png) [@fumster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fumster)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/15 "2012-01-19T16:17:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Just out of curiosity, then, how did he manage to get elected **in Texas** without revealing his idiocy? Same principle as camouflage. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/16 "2012-01-19T16:26:36Z")
I think this could be significant. Newt has gathered some momentum after the last debate and Santorum has lost ground. News is going with the argument that a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney and that he is the only conservative who can beat Romney. Perry’s endorsement will strengthen him further and more of Santorum’s voters could defect. Another strong debate performance today and it’s quite possible that Newt wins South Carolina (though there is also his ex-wife’s TV interview which should be interesting). Romney will still be the favorite but it will certainly be a scare. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/17 "2012-01-19T16:34:59Z")
Since Newt’s making things close in SC, picking up most of the 3-4% of SC GOP voters who were supporting Perry could potentially decide the primary. There’s one more debate tonight, then ABC interviews part of the Marianne Gingrich interview, so who knows who’ll have the momentum this time tomorrow, though. And the primary’s the day after tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/18 "2012-01-19T16:35:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Just out of curiosity, then, how did he manage to get elected **in Texas** without revealing his idiocy? One eyed man ion the party of the blind? ---
**Author:** ![purplehorseshoe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/purplehorseshoe/32/2996_2.png) [@purplehorseshoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehorseshoe)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/19 "2012-01-19T16:40:33Z")
> [@Enderw24](#): > > No, it’s three. Gingrich, Paul and > > And… > > Um, the Department of Energy? That was great! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009/20 "2012-01-19T16:40:37Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I think this could be significant. Newt has gathered some momentum after the last debate and Santorum has lost ground. News is going with the argument that a vote for Santorum is a vote for Romney and that he is the only conservative who can beat Romney. Of course, Santorum is making the same argument. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Since Newt’s making things close in SC, picking up most of the 3-4% of SC GOP voters who were supporting Perry could potentially decide the primary. I don’t think he’s within 3 or 4 percent right now, but it’s well-timed for Gingrich with another debate tonight and the voting Saturday. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bye-bye-perry-cant-say-im-surprised/610009.md?page=2)