One problem with this is that the parties seem to be moving to an urban/rural split, which may make small states systematically favor conservative candidates since they have fewer big cities. Another one is that the pet issues of the small states tend to have a disproportionate effect on national issues. I realize it’s not actually the primary, but we’re never going to have a chance at getting rid of corn subsidies as long as the Iowa caucus is so early. Californians may think that by moving the primary up to an earlier slot, then the issues of the biggest state might get more play in the national agenda than a handful of corn farmers.
They are more likely to pick the nominee that would win their state, who would also win California (unless it’s argued that California isn’t a safe state for the Dems).
And I would hate this idea. In my opinion, way too much time is dedicated to calculating which states are safe and which aren’t and too much time and energy (and money) are dedicated to voters in states which aren’t considered safe at the expense of voters in states which are considered safe. Making the earliest primaries also the ones most likely to be swing states just exacerbates this problem.
I’d be tempted to favor disposing of the Electoral College and making the winner of the popular vote the winner of the election, except for two things. First of all, I’m not THAT convinced that the Electoral College is bad. Secondly, ditching the Electoral College would likely just shift the emphasis from Big States which are not Safe to Big Cities which are not Safe. I’m not convinced that this is a good thing–especially if, as someone else suggests, we (as a nation) already have more of an Urban/Rural divide than many other types of divides.
If you’re in a safe state, you aren’t going to matter personally. There’s not much that can be done about that. If the first primary were held in California, Californians would be inundated for a while, then the candidates would leave and not look back.
Frankly, living through the past few elections in a swing state has sucked. A lot. I don’t need some politician in my face to be able to figure out where he or she stands, and I certainly don’t want some bozo sucking up to me or having minions call me on the phone.