# California gives up High Speed Rail project, why is the US a failure and laughing stock? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 14, 2019, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549 "2019-02-14T19:41:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/241 "2020-03-31T21:55:08Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Why is the very concept of passenger rail so beloved, to the point that people keep proposing its renovation time and again? If you go back to the heyday of freeway building (late 1930s through early 1960s), people at the time thought freeways and private cars were the wave of the future and were glad about it. Illustrations from the time such as in “Popular Mechanics” depicted a shining future of people in their luxurious land-yacht cars criss-crossing the country. And at this time passenger rail had a near-monopoly on long-distance travel (before jets made air travel more competitive), so presumably people found rail unpleasant or inconvenient enough to wish for an alternative. I’ve read various studies and analyses that convincingly argue that the US could be much, much more efficient with rail transport, both in cost and capacity over flying and driving, than it is now… but I can’t help but suspect that a big part of my advocacy for rail is that I love traveling by train and hate traveling by plane or car. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/242 "2020-03-31T22:22:29Z")
I don’t see a good PR future ahead for advocating yet one more way to cram hundreds of strangers together like sardines for hours. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/243 "2020-04-01T17:51:47Z")
Just for larfs, take a look at a few pages from the fabulous “zeerust” site Tales of Future Past and it’s views of the cars/highways of (their) tomorrow: [http://davidszondy.com/futurepast/future-car.html](http://davidszondy.com/futurepast/future-car.html) or for that matter, the “future” of rail travel: [http://davidszondy.com/futurepast/future-transport.html](http://davidszondy.com/futurepast/future-transport.html) ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/244 "2020-04-01T18:14:20Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > I don’t see a good PR future ahead for advocating yet one more way to cram hundreds of strangers together like sardines for hours. Have you ever actually been on a train? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/245 "2020-04-01T18:18:29Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Just for larfs, take a look at a few pages from the fabulous “zeerust” site Tales of Future Past and it’s views of the cars/highways of (their) tomorrow: > > [Future Car - Tales of Future Past v2](http://davidszondy.com/futurepast/future-car.html) > > or for that matter, the “future” of rail travel: > [Future Transport - Tales of Future Past v2](http://davidszondy.com/futurepast/future-transport.html) The Future Car one is pretty interesting. Is that cop taking a picture with a smart phone? And what’s that Star Wars ship doing in the background sky? Whitewalls? Roman numerals - this is supposed to be the future? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/246 "2020-04-01T18:28:42Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Have you ever actually been on a train? :dubious: No. Are you going to tell me that they have only 1 or 2 or so people, like my car? My point is that public mass transit–no matter what kind–is now the road to Coronatown. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/247 "2020-04-01T19:36:32Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > No. Are you going to tell me that they have only 1 or 2 or so people, like my car? > My point is that public mass transit–no matter what kind–is now the road to Coronatown. Which virus will be part of history before any High Speed rail is finished. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/248 "2020-04-01T23:21:21Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > The Future Car one is pretty interesting. Is that cop taking a picture with a smart phone? And what’s that Star Wars ship doing in the background sky? Whitewalls? Roman numerals - this is supposed to be the future? 😃 That’s just page 1, click next at the bottom of the page to see more. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/249 "2020-04-02T00:43:26Z")
Seems I never challenged the idea that planes are quicker than trains. I regularly travel by both plane and high speed rail, and I will choose the latter hands down where both options are available. I can go from sitting in my home typing this, to sitting on a high-speed train, leaving the station, within 40 minutes. Meanwhile it takes substantially longer than that just to get to the airport (because it’s right at the edge of the city), and then you have bag check-in, security check etc. I generally arrive 2 hours before my flight time, and even then there have still been times where I’ve had “Final boarding call for **Mijin** ” because I was unlucky with the queues. No way would I risk showing up later than that. You can also be unlucky with the flight itself; perhaps the plane circles before landing because the terminal is busy. Or there’s a long taxi-ing, or delay for the stairs to come. Then you’ve got to collect your bag. And finally you’re at the far edge of your destination town. Putting all factors together, for me, the total journey time is at least twice as long, usually more like 3 times. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/250 "2020-04-02T02:04:07Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Seems I never challenged the idea that planes are quicker than trains. > > I regularly travel by both plane and high speed rail, and I will choose the latter hands down where both options are available. > > I can go from sitting in my home typing this, to sitting on a high-speed train, leaving the station, within 40 minutes. > > Meanwhile it takes substantially longer than that just to get to the airport (because it’s right at the edge of the city), and then you have bag check-in, security check etc. I generally arrive 2 hours before my flight time, and even then there have still been times where I’ve had “Final boarding call for **Mijin** ” because I was unlucky with the queues. No way would I risk showing up later than that. > You can also be unlucky with the flight itself; perhaps the plane circles before landing because the terminal is busy. Or there’s a long taxi-ing, or delay for the stairs to come. Then you’ve got to collect your bag. And finally you’re at the far edge of your destination town. > > Putting all factors together, for me, the total journey time is at least twice as long, usually more like 3 times. In your example taking HSR makes sense - the origin and destination are close enough to make the train the superior choice. However, as distance between origin and destination increase, the benefits you describe start to erode, and there is a point where the airplane starts to make more sense. In CA, the two most often cities to be discussed for HSR are San Francisco and Los Angeles. There is no train in the world or in anyone’s imagination that will connect those two cities faster than a jet airplane. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/251 "2020-04-02T03:15:26Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > In your example taking HSR makes sense - the origin and destination are close enough to make the train the superior choice. However, as distance between origin and destination increase, the benefits you describe start to erode, and there is a point where the airplane starts to make more sense. In CA, the two most often cities to be discussed for HSR are San Francisco and Los Angeles. There is no train in the world or in anyone’s imagination that will connect those two cities faster than a jet airplane. Huh? We’re talking about high speed rail. Those cities are only 347 miles apart (thank you, google). There’s no way within such a short distance a plane can claw back the time difference of all the things that I listed. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/252 "2020-04-02T04:18:57Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > In your example taking HSR makes sense - the origin and destination are close enough to make the train the superior choice. However, as distance between origin and destination increase, the benefits you describe start to erode, and there is a point where the airplane starts to make more sense. In CA, the two most often cities to be discussed for HSR are San Francisco and Los Angeles. There is no train in the world or in anyone’s imagination that will connect those two cities faster than a jet airplane. This has been [well studied](https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/68770/1/618954864.pdf). > [@](#): > > where rail journey times are reduced below 4 hours, rail share of the rail-air market increases rapidly with further journey time reductions, and rail tends to have a market share of at least 60% and sometimes effectively drives air out of the market when rail journey times are below three hours. The projected journey time of SF to LA is 2 hours and 40 minutes. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/253 "2020-04-02T14:42:09Z")
> [@Shalmanese](#): > > This has been [well studied](https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/68770/1/618954864.pdf). > > The projected journey time of SF to LA is 2 hours and 40 minutes. There is no way the projected time is realistic. There are two mountain ranges to cross, two major metros as well to go thru - in each you will not be able to have a high speed train going full speed. Additionally, cities in the Central Valley, where the train _could_ reach high speeds for long distance, will demand having a stop (Merced, Fresno, Bakersfield, etc.) and for every stop the train will need to slow, stop, ramp up speed again, shaving off valuable time. The projected time put out there by CAHSR people is just a dream. Meanwhile at the airports, the flight is about 1 hour, and if you add on 2 hours at the origin and an hour (being generous) on the destination, it is difficult to imagine a train besting flight times and convenience between any NorCal/SoCal combinations. ---
**Author:** ![Kovitlac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/2bfe46/32.png) [@Kovitlac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kovitlac)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/254 "2020-04-02T15:09:03Z")
I’ve been on a HS rail train once - the bullet train connecting Shanghai to Beijing. And yeah, it was really friggin’ cool. We accidentally got there a little late (the cab trip took longer than we anticipated and there was confusion at the terminal), but we were able to board immediately upon arrival. The ride was about 4 hours I believe, and was very smooth and comfortable. So yeah, that’d be cool to have in the US, buuuuuuuuuuuut entirely impractical. It wouldn’t happen, because to connect cities large distances away, you need to have every state in-between do their part and agree to allow the rail to pass through. Just one state decides not to play ball, and the rail has to be diverted, adding time to the trip. When flying is so common, most people just have no interest in rail travel. Which is unfortunate, but also understandable. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/255 "2020-04-02T15:09:26Z")
Bakersfield wouldn’t DARE to ask for a stop. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/256 "2020-04-02T16:10:06Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > There is no way the projected time is realistic. There are two mountain ranges to cross, two major metros as well to go thru - in each you will not be able to have a high speed train going full speed. Additionally, cities in the Central Valley, where the train _could_ reach high speeds for long distance, will demand having a stop (Merced, Fresno, Bakersfield, etc.) and for every stop the train will need to slow, stop, ramp up speed again, shaving off valuable time. Tokyo to Osaka is 310 miles. It cuts across the largest metro area in the world, plus a few more. The Nozomi express makes the trip in 2 hours 30 minutes, including 4 stops along the way. And that’s the existing track that was originally opened in 1964. They are now constructing a [new one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C5%AB%C5%8D_Shinkansen) scheduled to be completed in 2037, and will shorten the trip time to **1 hour 7 minutes**. (It’s a maglev.) ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/257 "2020-04-02T16:13:24Z")
> [@Kovitlac](#): > > It wouldn’t happen, because to connect cities large distances away, you need to have every state in-between do their part and agree to allow the rail to pass through. Why would it be harder to build than a Canadian-owned crude oil pipeline that spans across [9 states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline#/media/File:Keystone-pipeline-route.svg)? ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/258 "2020-04-02T16:21:30Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > Tokyo to Osaka is 310 miles. It cuts across the largest metro area in the world, plus a few more. The Nozomi express makes the trip in 2 hours 30 minutes, including 4 stops along the way. > > And that’s the existing track that was originally opened in 1964. They are now constructing a [new one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C5%AB%C5%8D_Shinkansen) scheduled to be completed in 2037, and will shorten the trip time to **1 hour 7 minutes**. (It’s a maglev.) The Wikipedia article says the new line was estimated at 9 trillion yen in 2011, or about 83 billion dollars. The US doesn’t seem wiling to do such expensive infrastructure projects. Heck, the need for a new Hudson River rail tunnel has been recognized for years and it’s still not proceeding. Edited to add, it doesn’t help that the US doesn’t do long term planning very well or at all. Things change every four or eight years depending on who is in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/259 "2020-04-02T16:54:20Z")
Here is a list of planned stops and slowdowns on the [CA HSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail) project North to South: [ol] [li]San Francisco[/li][li]Millbrae/SFO[/li][li]San Jose[/li][li]Gilroy[/li][li]{Coast Ranges mountains crossing}[/li][li]Madera[/li][li]Fresno[/li][li]Kings/Tulare[/li][li]Bakersfield (yes!)[/li][li]{Tehachapi mountains crossing}[/li][li]Palmdale[/li][li]Burbank[/li][li]Los Angeles (downtown)[/li][/ol] 2 hours 40 minutes may be possible for a non-stop with gentle to flat terrain between SF and LA, but adding all those stops AND the mountain crossings AND suburban areas where full speed will not be allowed/possible will slow things down substantially - to the point that taking an airline will end-up being faster. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549/260 "2020-04-02T17:49:08Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > The Wikipedia article says the new line was estimated at 9 trillion yen in 2011, or about 83 billion dollars. The US doesn’t seem wiling to do such expensive infrastructure projects. Heck, the need for a new Hudson River rail tunnel has been recognized for years and it’s still not proceeding. > > Edited to add, it doesn’t help that the US doesn’t do long term planning very well or at all. Things change every four or eight years depending on who is in the White House. > [@](#): > > The California High-Speed Rail Authority on Wednesday bumped its overall cost estimate for completing the rail line between San Francisco and Los Angeles to $80.3 billion. [cite](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/02/12/california-high-speed-rail-cost-rises-80-billion/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/california-gives-up-high-speed-rail-project-why-is-the-us-a-failure-and-laughing-stock/829549.md?page=14)