I’m going to ramble a bit here without worrying about what the judge’s specific bigoted bullshit logic might be thinking on the subject (which is a deviation from my norm because my usual argument here is 'the judge doesn’t care if the cake is custom - he wants his bigoted bullshit to apply to all wedding cakes.") I figure that this point is interesting enough to discuss it without worrying about the fact that, in this case, it’s utterly irrelevant.
The way I see the situation is that there are two separate instances of speech in question here - and by speech I mean “action”, because that’s what speech apparently means now.
Speech one: Creating a specific cake with a specific design and appearance.
Speech two: Lowering yourself to the point of interacting with a customer and allowing them to purchase your product/services.
In my opinion, these are two different instances of speech. And the latter type of speech has been deemed to be ‘not so protected’ - it falls solidly under the purview of anti-discrimination laws and hopefully, for the moment, we can all agree that the baker can’t legally chuck the people out of their business just for being gay.
So let’s talk about speech one - and specifically, talk about speech one in isolation. Which is to say, what’s the answer to this question: “Would the baker be willing to bake this specific cake if they had no idea who was buying it or why?”
There are some cake designs that, themselves, the baker might reasonably refuse to make regardless of who was buying them. Swastikas. Representations of gore. Designs in violation of copyrights or trademarks. Or (sorry Adam and Steve) cake toppers with two male characters holding hands.
I’m personally of the opinion that the baker is well within their rights to refuse to make any of these cakes, on two different grounds - firstly speech, and secondly (and more importantly!) because the design in question is not part of their product line. You can’t sue Burger King for refusing to sell you a car, and the reason for that is not because of the first amendment issues. It’s because Burger King doesn’t sell cars.
So, there are designs that a given baker simply doesn’t make. But, contrariwise, there are designs that that baker does make. Including custom ones! Some bakers may even claim all their cakes are custom cakes, and good on them. But these custom cakes? They’re still cakes they’re willing to make. The cake, itself, has no message that the baker is offended by. The cake, itself, is not speech that the baker objects to.
I think you can see where I’m going here. If a baker would sell a specific cake to a straight couple, then no matter how custom, creative, or complex it is, then I think that there is no first amendment argument for them being able to refuse it to a gay couple, at least not on the grounds of the speech implied by the cake itself. The cake has its message, and the sale has its message, and the two are distinct.
Which means that while Adam and Steve can’t reasonably expect a baker to provide them with a cake with a gay cake topper, they can reasonably the baker to make a wildly custom cake for them that does not have gay iconography on it. If the bake would sell that exact custom cake to a straight couple, the gay couple should expect the same service, as members of a protected class.
And Adam and Steve are even within their rights to buy a topperless custom cake and put their own gay topper on - that’s covered by fair use. As is taking the custom cake and displaying it and consuming it at their wedding - as long as they don’t express or imply that the original owner of the cake design endorsed their use of it in that bit of performance art.