I’m not a conservative, so I’m not sure who you are directing that at.
You are still citing the same type of studies that find correlation without showing causation. The causation idea is weakly possible, but it seems to me that Ockham’s Razor leads us to believe as a Bayesian prior that there is not much causation there. They need to do an actual prospective study where they take carefully matched high schools (or even better, matched school districts) and eliminate suspensions in one but not the other. Until they have something like that, no amount of repeating the same types of data analysis means much of anything.
And BTW, I agree that out of school suspension is dumb. They should do ISS instead and use a juvenile detention center if necessary. Will it help the kids who get in trouble? I am agnostic on that, but I do believe it is good for the teachers and other students to have those troublemakers out of their hair.
ETA: This is something about which my wife, a high school special-education teacher, and I vehemently disagree. You might say she is much more qualified to judge, but I spent several years substitute teaching mostly in middle school and high school.