# Can A Country Survive By Flipping Hamburgers and Retail Jobs? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 15, 2004, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247 "2004-07-15T13:08:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2004, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/41 "2004-07-17T21:23:53Z")
> [@the raindog](#): > > I think you have a credible case for getting ALL of your tuition back. Clearly a fraud has been committed… **Moderator’s Note:** Please keep the personal attacks in the Pit. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2004, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/42 "2004-07-17T21:25:41Z")
> [@Vic Ferrari](#): > > For those who are concerned about American jobs being lost to outsourcing: I’m curious if you’re equally concerned about jobs being lost to technological innovation? > > If not, why? Because the people whose jobs are rendered obsolete by new technology can be retrained to work on the new technology, thus keeping them employed. No amount of retraining will allow someone to live on $2/day. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2004, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/43 "2004-07-17T22:10:03Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Another thing that seems to get lost in these discussions, is that the world economy consists of more than just the US and China. Protect US companies against low cost competition, and who else in the world is going to buy from the US? Go ahead and make shoes that cost $100 to produce in the US,\*\* but if I’m a Canadian, I’m gonna buy the ones from China that cost $10 to produce\*\*. Yeah if you don’t have kids or that you have some sort of spending dicipline on what you buy your kids , but for the majority of parents are picking up rebok or nike or whatever hightop running shoes for kids , and teens for that matter are buying the logo , regardless of what it costs. But chances are that the shoes were actually made in North Korea , and shipped to malaysia to be sewn up , then sent on to the various consumer nations for labelling and retail , so shoes are not really that good an example. Cars on the other hand are probably a better example of what you might want to buy , if a saturn costs bout 40 k and some chinese knock off , costs 14 k. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2004, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/44 "2004-07-17T22:27:21Z")
> [@LonesomePolecat](#): > > In the Second World War, America’s staggering industrial capacity gave it a tremendous advantage in the war. I understand that immediately after Germany declared war on the US, Albert Speer, Hitler’s right hand man when it came to managing the economy, took one look at projected figures for America’s war production and decided then and there that Germany would lose the war. So did Yamato , when he was informed about the plans for an attack on the US, reminding whomever that he could run roughshod for six months ,and then slowly lose the war , once the North American Dragon awoke. > [@](#): > > Do we even have that kind of industrial capacity today? In the unlikely event that a conflict on the scale of WWII broke out, could we muster the kind of massive wartime output that we managed 65 years ago? How much of our razzle dazzle weaponry depends on electronic components manufactured overseas? Could our shipyards turn out 2000 Liberty ships a year? I am not sure that the States had it then , not until 1942 or 43 when production was fully ramped up. However it is a tricky question , but it might be tactics that drives wartime economic production. Assuming that strategic metals are forth coming , to supply the aerospace industry ,and what ever for the computer industry , I can’t see why not. But your not going to see another world war on the scale of ww2 , what took close to a month for transport across the atlantic in convoys , now would take ten days on fast transport freighters , divisions can be moved in the course of 12 to 19 hours on airliners , to be mated up with pre cached equipment. If someone could guess who to fight that would resemble the axis powers , take 5 years from a standing start to finish , owns the ocean enough to require thousands of replacement freighters to replace wartime losses due to U-boats. Even a chinese war would only last six months at a guess. > [@](#): > > Something to think about the next time you hear about a factory being closed and moved to China … I hear that ominous tone behind the statement , but can’t quite become worried about some chinese factory making war material more efficiently. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Vic\_Ferrari](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/dbc845/32.png) [@Vic\_Ferrari](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vic_Ferrari)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/45 "2004-07-18T17:12:31Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > Because the people whose jobs are rendered obsolete by new technology can be retrained to work on the new technology, thus keeping them employed. > > No amount of retraining will allow someone to live on $2/day. Cleverly said, but the fact is that we’re losing many more manufacturing jobs to technological innovation than we are to outsourcing. If we want to stop the loss of these jobs than we’ll have to do a lot more than just preventing outsourcing. ---
**Author:** ![Chairman\_Pow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/838e76/32.png) [@Chairman\_Pow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chairman_Pow)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/46 "2004-07-18T17:22:28Z")
> [@Jervoise](#): > > In a nutshell: > > Walmart trims fat. Walmart cuts prices. > > American Consumers attracted to low prices. American Consumer spends money at Walmart. > > Walmart makes profits. Walmart’s American Workers keep their jobs. Walmart’s Shareholders happy. > > Because of lower prices, American Consumer has more disposable income. American Consumer (and Walmart’s happy shareholders) can buy more good-ies and services-ies from Other Businesses. > > Other Businesses happy. Other Businesses employ more American Workers to meet demand. American Economy is happy. > > At same time, Chinese Wa-mart employs Chinese Workers to supply Walmart with Stuff. Chinese Workers have jobs. Chinese Economy is happy. > > Chinese Economy is growing. Chinese Workers have disposable income. Chinese Workers consume American good-ies and service-ies. Walmart and Other Businesses happy. Walmart and Other Businesses employ American Workers. American Workers happy. > > Just another day in the free market Circle of Life, Grasshopper. Granted, but the OP’s question is, essentially, how can an economy last with a negative balance of trade? Unless I’m mistaken, the only countries that have positive balances of trade are net exporters of commodity goods, i.e. manufacturers. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/47 "2004-07-18T19:48:23Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > Since we’re talking about the Chinese buying the same Chinese-made goods that get sent to Wal-Mart in the United States, isn’t this an admission we’re screwed? Nope. Because if (actually when) the Chinese start buying a lot of the Chinese-made goods, the price of those goods will go up, and the competitive advantage of moving production to China will shrink. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/48 "2004-07-18T21:23:11Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Because if (actually when) the Chinese start buying a lot of the Chinese-made goods, the price of those goods will go up How does that figure? If nothing else, increased purchases of Chinese-made goods would invoke economies of scale, which would make those goods _cheaper_ to produce. The prices would only go up if demand exceeded supply, which is not necessarily the case. ---
**Author:** ![scotandrsn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a4c791/32.png) [@scotandrsn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scotandrsn)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/49 "2004-07-19T02:00:02Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Meanwhile, Walmart keeps telling us what a great place it is to work in! It has been pointed out, I forget where, perhaps in Ehrenrich’s book, that since Wal-Mart is such a huge employer, instead of distributing in-house happy-employee-propaganda training videos and taking workers off the floor for a workshop in which to show them, it makes more economic sense for Wal-Mart to simply produce them in commercial form for use during their already-in-the-budget television advertising time, as their employees are probably watching TV at home anyway. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/50 "2004-07-19T02:04:15Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > How does that figure? If nothing else, increased purchases of Chinese-made goods would invoke economies of scale, which would make those goods _cheaper_ to produce. The prices would only go up if demand exceeded supply, which is not necessarily the case. If that’s true, why aren’t American goods insanely cheap? Logically, the same thing should have happened when the United States industralized. But it didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/51 "2004-07-19T02:21:26Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > How does that figure? If nothing else, increased purchases of Chinese-made goods would invoke economies of scale, which would make those goods _cheaper_ to produce. The prices would only go up if demand exceeded supply, which is not necessarily the case. It’s pretty basic economics. A rapidly growing economy creates inflationary pressure. There are others here far more qualified than I to explain this, but I can give the thumbnail sketch. Production in China is cheap because labour there is cheap. But for every factory that goes up, there’s more competition for that cheap labour. If the Chinese start buying large quantities of Chineses-made consumer goods (as seems likely), they’ll need to produce even more of them, which means still more competition for labour, which means higher wages, which means higher costs of production, which means higher costs for the finished product. Look, this isn’t just theoretical economics requiring assumptions about perfect information and completely elastic supply and demand. Look at Taiwan. Used to be, the cheapest of cheap stuff was all made in Taiwan. Why? Same reason - cheap labour. But this is no longer the case. Why? Because labour in Taiwan isn’t cheap anymore. Why isn’t labour in Taiwan cheap anymore? Because the economy of Taiwan skyrocketed due to the production of all those cheap consumer goods, and now the Taiwanese economy, standard of living, average wage, etc, look more like Japan (which itself underwent the same process a little bit earlier) than they do like China. On what grounds do you suppose China and India are likely to diverge from this pattern of development? ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/52 "2004-07-19T05:01:24Z")
What I predict is that there will be a trend towards two broad categories of jobs in the US. 1. High level service jobs - accounting, finance, law, sales, marketing, business services - the people who work in the headquarters making the business run 2. low level services jobs -Walmarts, McDonalds, waiters, deli clerks - the low level service jobs that by nature must be local and generally fall to those without college degrees. Oh and I guess there’s also those distribution type jobs -truck drivers, railroad and airline employees, distribution center workers (which must be near their customers), the huge number of people who work in retail companies that aren’t just selling stuff (operations, etc). Of course there are also technical jobs like plumbers, repairment, construction etc. And of course, there is still a ton of stuff that is just more cost effective to manufacture here in the US of A (remember that a falling dollar encourages the growth of manufacturing domesticly). Ok, so there aren’t any more injection molding machine operator millionares anymore. But lets knock off the crazy talk about how the US is going to empty of all but McDonalds and Walmart jobs. ---
**Author:** ![erislover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/71e660/32.png) [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/53 "2004-07-19T05:15:12Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > (remember that a falling dollar encourages the growth of manufacturing domesticly) So long as other manufacturing nations don’t interfere in currency markets or peg their currency to the dollar, of course. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/54 "2004-07-19T10:48:53Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > What I predict is that there will be a trend towards two broad categories of jobs in the US. > > 1. High level service jobs - accounting, finance, law, sales, marketing, business services - the people who work in the headquarters making the business run Not for long. I predict that the large majority of accounting jobs will soon be overshored, rendering a CPA into worthless job qualification. The same with finance and business services; global communications technology will unpin them from any need for a domestic location. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/55 "2004-07-19T19:12:37Z")
> [@Fear Itself](#): > > Not for long. I predict that the large majority of accounting jobs will soon be overshored, rendering a CPA into worthless job qualification. The same with finance and business services; global communications technology will unpin them from any need for a domestic location. Great. Then maybe I won’t have to get on a fucking airplane every monday and fly out to a client. So why would you think that all of a sudden, all the domestic accounting firms would disappear? There would still be a need for these positions. They aren’t just going to go away. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/56 "2004-07-19T22:23:02Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > So why would you think that all of a sudden, all the domestic accounting firms would disappear? There would still be a need for these positions. They aren’t just going to go away. I don’t see why 60% of accounting jobs couldn’t be outsourced to India, the same way programming jobs were. They said that could never happen either. ---
**Author:** ![laigle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@laigle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laigle)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247/57 "2004-07-19T23:42:05Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > What I predict is that there will be a trend towards two broad categories of jobs in the US. > > 1. High level service jobs - accounting, finance, law, sales, marketing, business services - the people who work in the headquarters making the business run > > 2. low level services jobs -Walmarts, McDonalds, waiters, deli clerks - the low level service jobs that by nature must be local and generally fall to those without college degrees. > > Oh and I guess there’s also those distribution type jobs -truck drivers, railroad and airline employees, distribution center workers (which must be near their customers), the huge number of people who work in retail companies that aren’t just selling stuff (operations, etc). Of course there are also technical jobs like plumbers, repairment, construction etc. > > And of course, there is still a ton of stuff that is just more cost effective to manufacture here in the US of A (remember that a falling dollar encourages the growth of manufacturing domesticly). > > Ok, so there aren’t any more injection molding machine operator millionares anymore. But lets knock off the crazy talk about how the US is going to empty of all but McDonalds and Walmart jobs. Umm, you do realize that China isn’t a free market, don’t you? The wages don’t have to go up because of inflationary pressures. The bribes may, but that’s a drop in the bucket compared to operating costs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-a-country-survive-by-flipping-hamburgers-and-retail-jobs/255247.md?page=2)