# Can an Economic Recovery Occur Without a Robust Manufacturing Sector? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 23, 2010, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175 "2010-01-23T23:58:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ruminator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Ruminator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruminator)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/21 "2010-01-24T17:23:41Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Fair labor laws, minimum wages, not blatantly stealing technology, copyright enforcement, etc… are all things that most Western countries have, but that the Chinese pretty much ridicule. They don’t give a fuck that a US firm may have invested millions in some piece of equipment or technology; they’ll copy it and then produce goods with it at a fraction of what the US firm could, LOL in agreement. Perhaps some folks don’t know their history. At the beginning stages of the Industrial Revolution, [Samuel Slater](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Slater) left England illegally and brought textile machine technology the to the USA. The United States could have taken the high road and deported his ass all the way back to England. We didn’t do that. Gee whiz, I wonder why? And [Charles Dickens](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_dickens) (an English writer) was disgusted when he saw pirated copies of his books at the markets when he visited the United States. Now, the USA wants to lecture the rest of the world about respecting copyrights and intellectual property? Interesting how history repeats itself. ---
**Author:** ![Sateryn76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e4f/32.png) [@Sateryn76](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sateryn76)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/22 "2010-01-24T17:30:44Z")
> [@sleeping](#): > > Now, this is interesting. If this is the case, what do you think accounts for the discrepancy? Could it be merely a definitional issue (e.g., what kind of business is considered to be in the manufacturing category)? > > Thanks for this, **Dr. L**. IIRC, the issue is that the Chinese (or whoever) are making making goods that are in demand from the average consumer - coffeemakers, toys, clothing, etc. The manufacturers in America are making high tech industrial-type goods, mostly for sale to corporations and the military. The trick is that the American jobs require a high-level of education and training - there are few “push button” factory left in this country. The good old days of Johnny bring able to get a job in the factory down the road are over, hence the concern over “manufacturing jobs”. They still exist, but they’re not accessible to the average high school graduate. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Love](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Dr.Love](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Love)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/23 "2010-01-24T17:35:24Z")
> [@sleeping](#): > > Now, this is interesting. If this is the case, what do you think accounts for the discrepancy? Could it be merely a definitional issue (e.g., what kind of business is considered to be in the manufacturing category)? > > Thanks for this, **Dr. L**. I don’t disagree with any of the facts cited by Tonelson. The Federal Reserve cite backs some of them up (e.g., that manufacturing output is now roughly where it was at the end of 2001), and you could probably find more agreement if you rooted through their data. I disagree with the context and interpretation of the facts. For example, then Tonelson says “as of 2007 (the latest available data), imports had taken over 90 percent of the U.S. market in plastics production machinery and in metal-forming machine tools. They represented between 60 and 70 percent of Americans’ purchases of goods like turbines and turbine-generator sets, computer storage devices, and miscellaneous electric components”, I notice that 2007 was also the year that US manufacturing output hit an all time high. If foreign companies moving into these areas was a major problem, wouldn’t it have showed up in the data as lower manufacturing output _before_ the recession hit? Similarly with the two problems Tonelson mentions, the VAT and currency manipulation. Both policies have been in place for years, but they have been unable to stop the growth of manufacturing in all that time. Why is this time different? > [@sleeping](#): > > Do you agree that the reason other, less developed countries can make products for less is primarily the relatively lower wages, and that these lower wages are due primarily to insufficient regulation (e.g., of carbon taxes, as stated in the article; or occupational safety measures, etc.) and anti-union policies that prevent collective action? Because they are basically doing the same work. Not directed at me, but: I agree with the first part, that developing countries are attractive because of the lower wages for employees. The second part, however, is completely backwards. These regulations (environmental, work safety, etc.) are a **product** of wealth, not the cause of it. > [@](#): > > If so, then enacting policies that level the playing field and take that net advantage from those countries would disincentivize outsourcing and lead to those jobs being created here, with the attendant higher wages. The notion that any of these measures will lead to a radical change in manufacturing employment is not supported by historical data. For example, the total fluctuation in the number of manufacturing jobs since the end of WWII has been about ~7 million ([cite](http://www.invisibleheart.com/Iheart/TradeDeficitJobs.pdf), page 4, pdf). At the same time, the population of the US has roughly doubled, from 150 million to 300 million. As a percentage of all jobs, manufacturing jobs has decreased from 3.7% after WWII to about 1% in 2005 (same cite, pg 6). Simultaneously, manufacturing output has risen by roughly 300% (350% if you look at the 2007 peak) (same cite, pg 7; or the Federal Reserve cite posted above). Now, the bad news is that the recession cost about 4 million manufacturing jobs. This is certainly bad news, but I see no compelling evidence that “this time, things are going to be different.” I suspect that, in the coming years, most of these jobs will be recreated as the economy recovers. All this screams to me that we don’t have manufacturing jobs because we don’t need them. The US manufacturing sector does an enormous amount of work, and does so extremely efficiently. And, most importantly, this trend has been continuing for more than half a century. So what “problem” are these economic measures are supposed to fix? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/24 "2010-01-24T17:59:03Z")
The article is mostly protectionist nonsense. Cheap labour costs don’t constitute an unfair advantage. They are a flip side of the fact that the US has much better infrastructure and a large amount of capital stock per worker. Differences in labor costs are a good reason for free trade not an argument against it; it makes sense for the US to import labor-intensive goods. Secondly there is nothing magical about manufacturing. A lot of “manufacturing” is really a service product anyway. For example designing, marketing and financing a car. As for China’s exchange-rate policies they do create imbalances which are possibly harmful but the problem is a bit more subtle than protectionists think. It’s not a matter of China stealing jobs from the US. When China runs a trade surplus with the US it invests that money right back in the US economy. This means lower interest rates which creates jobs. The jobs lost in the export sector are balanced by other jobs in various interest-sensitive sectors. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/25 "2010-01-24T18:18:07Z")
> [@bump](#): > > That guy seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room, which is the fact that our labor costs are just staggeringly higher than in other countries, like say China, Mexico or even Eastern Europe. > > That puts US manufacturers at a pretty serious disadvantage for commodity-type items like televisions, shoes, clothing, textiles, etc… where the cost of labor is a major piece of the total cost of the item. U.S. labour costs were higher than in those countries in the 1950s, too. Why is it a disadvantage now, but wasn’t then? ---
**Author:** ![Ruminator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Ruminator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruminator)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/26 "2010-01-24T18:34:03Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > U.S. labour costs were higher than in those countries in the 1950s, too. Why is it a disadvantage now, but wasn’t then? Many reasons. Some off the top of my head… [ul] [li]Those countries didn’t build up their manufacturing capabilities yet.[/li][li]Their governments didn’t reform economic policies to start participating in the global marketplace (and actively courting USA manufacturers with favorable tax treatment and contracts)[/li][li]The information age and electronic technology wasn’t fast enough cheap enough to facilitate easy movement of capital.[/li][li]Transportation technology was primitive. No containerized shipping. Airplanes with jet engines for commercial use was limited.[/li][/ul] … and a hundred more reasons I can’t think of at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Love](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Dr.Love](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Love)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/27 "2010-01-24T19:07:45Z")
> [@sleeping](#): > > The only beneficiaries of the current order are the very wealthy … the effect on the average third world citizen has been far worse. You’re going to need to back this one up. Quite a few developing countries made fairly good economic progress over the past decade. See [here](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/03/business/economy/03view.html?ref=business): > [@](#): > > Putting aside the United States, which ranks third, the four most populous countries are China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, accounting for more than 40 percent of the world’s people. And all four have made great strides. Indonesia had solid economic growth during the entire decade, mostly in the 5 to 6 percent annual range. That came after its very turbulent 1990s, marked by a disastrous financial crisis and plummeting standards of living. > > Brazil also had a consistently good decade, with growth at times exceeding 5 percent a year. There is lots of talk that the country has finally turned the corner, and, within its borders, there is major worry that its currency is too strong — a problem that many other countries would envy. > > Elsewhere in South America, Colombia and Peru have made enormous progress and Chile is on the verge of becoming a “developed” country; it will soon be joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. > [@Sateryn76](#): > > IIRC, the issue is that the Chinese (or whoever) are making making goods that are in demand from the average consumer - coffeemakers, toys, clothing, etc. The manufacturers in America are making high tech industrial-type goods, mostly for sale to corporations and the military. > > The trick is that the American jobs require a high-level of education and training - there are few “push button” factory left in this country. The good old days of Johnny bring able to get a job in the factory down the road are over, hence the concern over “manufacturing jobs”. They still exist, but they’re not accessible to the average high school graduate. I can’t imagine why manufacturing high-tech good would be seen as a problem. The thing about jobs that anyone can just walk in off the street and do is that they don’t contribute much to society. In particular, they don’t contribute enough to justify a first-world salary. In order to justify a first world salary, workers need to be able to handle more complicated and difficult tasks. ---
**Author:** ![Sateryn76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e4f/32.png) [@Sateryn76](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sateryn76)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/28 "2010-01-24T19:29:48Z")
> [@Dr.Love](#): > > …snip… > > The thing about jobs that anyone can just walk in off the street and do is that they don’t contribute much to society. In particular, they don’t contribute enough to justify a first-world salary. In order to justify a first world salary, workers need to be able to handle more complicated and difficult tasks. I completely agree. I’m not sure what is going to happen to the current generation of low skilled workers. I’m in a steel mill area, and when my parents were young, you could go to the mill and get a job. That doesn’t exist anymore. There is a growing gap between what’s available to low and high skilled workers. Some are just unmotivated, but there are some people that are just kinda dumb. They learn very slowly, and are unable to grasp complex skill sets. And the only jobs available in most cases are at McDonalds - low wage jobs with no real chance of moving up. I think that’s what behind this nervousness about “manufacturing jobs” - the low entry jobs aren’t available. The fact is that you cannot make a $50 vacuum or a $20 castle playset in America, because the wages demanded are too high. It’s a symptom of living in a first world nation, and the low skill people are being left behind. I’m afraid that this is going to result in heavy taxation, as more entitlement programs are going to spring up to create a low-level skill class that cannot get the money they “need” to keep up with the Jones. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/29 "2010-01-24T21:02:07Z")
It’s obvious to anyone who gives it a moment’s thought that, if we’re going to buy things from other countries, then we also need to sell something to other countries. What could we sell? Services, sure, but most services are expensive to sell to the other side of the globe, so that’s only practical in a small number of cases. Non-manufactured products like agricultural produce are a part of it, but I’m not sure we can sell enough wheat and potatoes to make up for all the things we buy. So we’ll need to manufacture things for sale abroad, too. Of course, we can also try to close the trade deficit by buying less things from overseas, but that doesn’t change the fundamentals: In that case, instead of making things to sell to other countries, we’d have to instead make the things we’re currently buying. No matter how you slice it, we need to make things. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/30 "2010-01-24T21:08:03Z")
> [@Dr.Love](#): > > The thing about jobs that anyone can just walk in off the street and do is that they don’t contribute much to society. In particular, they don’t contribute enough to justify a first-world salary. There was a time when they did, and not so very long ago. Of course, that time was the 1950s and '60s, when the rest of the industrialized world was still recovering from the devastation of WWII, and America had the global manufactures market almost to itself, and industry had not been substantially automated, and nobody had heard of “outsourcing.” Different ballgame now. ---
**Author:** ![Ruminator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Ruminator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruminator)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/31 "2010-01-24T21:12:21Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It’s obvious to anyone who gives it a moment’s thought that, if we’re going to buy things from other countries, then we also need to sell something to other countries. What could we sell? We could we sell them IOU’s. However, that game only works for a few decades before other countries wise up to the fact that USA can’t make good on its IOUs unless it inflates the currency. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Love](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Dr.Love](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Love)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2010, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/32 "2010-01-24T23:24:18Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > There was a time when they did, and not so very long ago. > > Of course, that time was the 1950s and '60s, when the rest of the industrialized world was still recovering from the devastation of WWII, and America had the global manufactures market almost to itself, and industry had not been substantially automated, and nobody had heard of “outsourcing.” Different ballgame now. This is true. In addition to the much of the world still trying to rise from its own ashes, there were enormous populations that were desperately poor in the 50s and 60s that are now clawing their way up to a high standard of living. But there’s more to the story than this. A factory worker’s salary would buy significantly less in times past.\* The corollary is that today’s factory workers produce significantly more than they did in the past. A quick calculation from Dr. Robert’s pdf I liked to above ([here](http://www.invisibleheart.com/Iheart/TradeDeficitJobs.pdf)) suggests that the average factory worker in the 60’s (or earlier) produced less that 1/4 of what is produced today. The difference comes from the use of automation, worker education, advancements in the theory and practice of designing manufacturing systems (for example, the statistical methods pioneered by Deming) and probably some other things I’m not thinking of. \*[Here (the article Time Well Spent)](http://www.dallasfed.org/fed/annual/1999p/ar97.pdf) is an extremely interesting (though now rather old) comparing the number of hours of work required to purchase various items. Worth opening, even if you only look at the graphs. Unfortunately, I’m not aware of anyone having reproduced this analysis more recently. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/33 "2010-01-25T20:36:47Z")
Good stuff **Dr. Love** , thanks for the information. ---
**Author:** ![randy054](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/54ee81/32.png) [@randy054](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/randy054)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2010, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/34 "2010-01-26T22:29:34Z")
Big question I have is what is considered manufacturing in the US and has the definition changed overtime. When I ask most people what they think manufacturing means, they said building stuff in this country, and does not mean assembling parts made in china. Also, did you know that fast food is now considered part of manufactering when it used to be considered service side? Think how many manufactering jobs that would represent when you have even 40 odd fast food jobs in a small town. > [@Dr.Love](#): > > Below is a post that I made back in August detailing some of the damage done to the manufacturing sector in this recession. The Federal Reserve cite agrees with the numbers that Alan Tonelson cites. However, I think it is important to keep one thing in mind: when manufacturing was hit in this recession, it was knocked down from an **all time high** in output. Further, manufacturing has been in more-or-less steady recovery for the past six months. > > I bring these points up because there is a pervasive myth that US manufacturing has been disappearing since the '70s. This is not true. Further, all of the reasons given for fearing the demise of manufacturing have been true for much longer than the current recession. Given all this, why should I assume that manufacturing now has any real problems (besides those directly related to the recession)? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2010, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/35 "2010-01-26T23:19:15Z")
> [@randy054](#): > > Big question I have is what is considered manufacturing in the US and has the definition changed overtime. When I ask most people what they think manufacturing means, they said building stuff in this country, and does not mean assembling parts made in china. > > Also, did you know that fast food is now considered part of manufactering when it used to be considered service side? Think how many manufactering jobs that would represent when you have even 40 odd fast food jobs in a small town. Cite? If this is true I would really be interested in seeing the data. ---
**Author:** ![randy054](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/54ee81/32.png) [@randy054](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/randy054)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/36 "2010-01-27T01:16:06Z")
> [@L. G. Butts](#): > > Cite? If this is true I would really be interested in seeing the data. Ok, I heard that fast food joints were considered as manufacturing. [http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/20/business/20jobs.html?pagewanted=1](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/20/business/20jobs.html?pagewanted=1) **In the New Economics: Fast-Food Factories?** _David Huether, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, said he had heard that some economists wanted to count hamburger flipping as manufacturing, which he noted would produce statistics showing more jobs in what has been a declining sector of the economy._ Also: [http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/20/politics/main601336.shtml](http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/20/politics/main601336.shtml) \*Manufacturing is defined by the Census Bureau as work involving employees who are “engaged in the mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products.” But, the president’s report notes, even the Census Bureau has acknowledged that its definition “can be somewhat blurry,” with bakeries, candy stores, custom tailors and tire retreading services considered manufacturing. “Mixing water and concentrate to produce soft drinks is classified as manufacturing,” the president’s report reads. “However, if that activity is performed at a snack bar, it is considered a service.”\* So it appears the line is quite blurry and they can classify anything they want as manufacturing. Also, food packaging companies are considered manufacturing and with the millions of different types of eateries in the US would count as a considerable number of manufacturing jobs. What the US Gov defines as “Manufacturing” and the average American seems to have a disconnect, since to me, it means making products we can use not consume, and not assembled here with parts from China either. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Love](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Dr.Love](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Love)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/37 "2010-01-27T04:42:26Z")
The definition given by the Federal Reserve is > [@](#): > > Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definition of manufacturing plus those industries–newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. Following a link from the [NAICS](http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/) faq page, I found [this](http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/02numlist/02numlist.html), which looks to be an official list of products that are considered to be manufactured. **randy054** , your cites only say that some have questioned whether fast food should be considered manufacturing, not that it is considered manufacturing. I can have a bit more information tomorrow, but I need to get to bed. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Love](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Dr.Love](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Love)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/38 "2010-01-27T22:19:17Z")
After searching around a bit, I can’t find anything that details how (or if) the definition of manufacturing has changed over the years. However, the FR has all of its data available for download. You can see it at [here](http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=G.17). So I looked at the data available on durable goods, from 1976 to present, which you should be able to download from [this link](http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Download.aspx?rel=G17&series=5d20085abcf66bda41b250b4be9fb5a9&filetype=csv&label=include&layout=seriescolumn&from=03/01/1976&to=12/31/2009). In particular, with this data I found the year of peak output for each type of durable good: Wood Product, 2005 Nonmetallic Mineral Product, 2006 Primary Metal, 1978 Fabricated Metal Product, 2008 Machinery, 2000 Computer and Electronic Product, 2008 Electrical Equipment, appliance and component, 2000 Motor vehicles and parts, 2004 Aerospace and Misc. Transport, 2007 Furnature and related product, 2006 Misc., 2007 With the exception of Primary Metal, all categories reached their peak in the last decade. Primary metal reached 84% of its highest output in 2006. Electrical equipment and Machinery also had more recent peaks: Electrical equipment reached 87% of its peak in 2008, while Machinery reached 99% of its earlier peak in 2007. So it seems clear that the positive numbers for manufacturing output aren’t the result of a shift away from “real manufacturing” in the official definitions. Finally, it’s not clear to me why we shouldn’t count anything that is“assembled here with parts from China.” Some of the manufacturing done in China is final assembly. We complain when such jobs get moved to China, so why should we claim they don’t count if they get moved back? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/39 "2010-01-27T22:26:56Z")
Of course…and correct me if I’m wrong here or drawing the wrong conclusion…the issue isn’t really that our manufacturing has become more productive and efficient, the problem (to some) is that it’s shed jobs due to automation (and of course ‘outsourcing’). I think the expectation (again, for some) is that jobs in the US will remain stable (while also continually increasing in pay rate, benefits, job security, stability and standard of living essentially ad infinitum), and the fact that this hasn’t happened has made a lot of folks really unhappy…especially those who believe that manufacturing jobs are ‘real’ jobs, and by us losing them (either through increases in productivity through automation or by shifting away from manufacturing directly here in the US and instead importing things like clothing) we have weakened the industrial capacity of the nation as a whole. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Love](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Dr.Love](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Love)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175/40 "2010-01-27T22:53:57Z")
IMO, the fears about American manufacturing come from (1) the fact that we hear about outsourcing on the news every so often (as you said) and (2) they see “Made in China” on so many things that they own. So they draw conclusions like “America doesn’t make anything anymore”, or **gonzomax** ’s “shipping our industry out ,lock, stock and intellectual property.” I just hope that as many people as possible know that this is completely wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-an-economic-recovery-occur-without-a-robust-manufacturing-sector/526175.md?page=3)