# Can anyone predict the box office success of Superman Returns? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [June 14, 2006, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666 "2006-06-14T11:53:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/21 "2006-06-20T03:08:46Z")
If other people thought like me (and it’s clear that they don’t), this flick would tank. Sup. has been _done_, man. It’s _beat_. It’s more beat than Batman, for crying out loud. So, given my objections, it’ll probably make a billion dollars worldwide. ---
**Author:** ![mobo85](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b19c9b/32.png) [@mobo85](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mobo85)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/22 "2006-06-20T03:20:35Z")
The original 1978 _Superman_ made $134 million domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that’s almost $400 million in 2004 dollars- which is around how much _Spider-Man_ made domestically in 2002. DC’s highest-grossing Super Hero\* film is the original _Batman_, which made over $250 million in 1989. I’m estimating that _Superman Returns_ will make in the range of $300-350 millions. (The numbers are from [BoxOfficeMojo.com](http://www.boxofficemojo.com), and the inflation estimate was calculated by myself using a multiplier on [NASA’s website](http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/bu2/inflateCPI.html).) \*Although the word “superhero,” one word non-capitalized, is often used to refer to the type of heroes Superman et al. are, the word “Super Hero,” two words capitalized, is used in DC promotional material and is a jointly-owned registered trademark of DC and Marvel Comics. ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/23 "2006-06-20T03:27:07Z")
So far on Rottentomatoes, the reviews are promising. All that really means is that there won’t be as big of a drop off as X-Men had. I think it’ll hit somewhere around the $330 mark. ---
**Author:** ![pinkfreud](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pinkfreud/32/17603_2.png) [@pinkfreud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinkfreud)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/24 "2006-06-20T03:29:45Z")
I seldom go to out to see movies in theaters anymore. _Superman Returns_ will be an exception to my stay-at-home ways, because there is a 3-D Imax version. I just looooove 3-D Imax. I doubt that I’m the only person who will be attracted by the lure of the big, big screen and the nifty “right at ya” 3-D effects. ---
**Author:** ![DKW](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dkw/32/3118_2.png) [@DKW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DKW)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/25 "2006-06-20T03:58:14Z")
Will get a strong opening weekend, will undoubtedly disappoint a lot of viewers with the departure from the original story, probably won’t compare favorably to the original Superman movies, may or may not have staying power. I see absolutely no reason to believe that it won’t finish strongly in the black. This is as close to a lock on that a movie gets. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/26 "2006-06-20T11:00:00Z")
The third superman movie made 60 million domestically (and the 4th 15 million!). Even accounting for inflation I think it’s wildly optimistic to think this one will make more than 200 million. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2006, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/27 "2006-06-20T11:15:46Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > The third superman movie made 60 million domestically (and the 4th 15 million!). Even accounting for inflation I think it’s wildly optimistic to think this one will make more than 200 million. Maybe, but no-one really remembers those movies. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2006, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/28 "2006-06-21T12:28:54Z")
[New Superman movie dazzles critics in first reviews](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060620/en_nm/leisure_superman_dc) > [@](#): > > … > Hollywood’s two trade newspapers, Daily Variety and Hollywood Reporter, gave the movie strong reviews, with The Reporter describing it as “a heartfelt Superman movie that plays to a broad audience thanks to an emotionally troubled Man of Steel.” > > Daily Variety critic Todd McCarthy said director Bryan Singer had imprinted the Warner Bros. movie with its own personality. “‘Superman Returns’ is never self-consciously hip, ironic, post-modern or camp. To the contrary, it’s quite sincere, with an artistic elegance,” he said. > > Routh won praise for his apparent effortlessness – with his resemblance to Superman predecessor, the late Christopher Reeve, not going unnoticed. > … Hit. Big hit. ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2006, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/29 "2006-06-21T13:17:11Z")
> [@mobo85](#): > > DC’s highest-grossing Super Hero\* film is the original _Batman_, which made over $250 million in 1989. Actually, the original _Batman_ movie was the classic Adam West/Burt Ward film. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2006, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/30 "2006-06-21T16:57:49Z")
> [@pinkfreud](#): > > I seldom go to out to see movies in theaters anymore. _Superman Returns_ will be an exception to my stay-at-home ways, because there is a 3-D Imax version. I just looooove 3-D Imax. I doubt that I’m the only person who will be attracted by the lure of the big, big screen and the nifty “right at ya” 3-D effects. Just to prevent any possible disappointment, **pinkfreud** , I’ll point out that only 20 minutes of the 150-minute film will be in 3D. ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2006, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/31 "2006-06-21T17:41:14Z")
Somehow I just can’t bring myself to get excited about this movie. I think it’s because of the lead actor. He just doesn’t exude Superman, as far as I’m concerned. Yeah, you heard me. Whoever he is, he’s no Christopher Reeve. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2006, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/32 "2006-06-21T18:59:26Z")
I’d like to just pipe back in to say that I hope it doesn’t succeed (though it probably will) for reasons mentioned in other threads. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![pinkfreud](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pinkfreud/32/17603_2.png) [@pinkfreud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinkfreud)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2006, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/33 "2006-06-22T18:33:38Z")
> [@commasense](#): > > Just to prevent any possible disappointment, **pinkfreud** , I’ll point out that only 20 minutes of the 150-minute film will be in 3D. I’m aware of that. However, that’s still a big incentive to me. I love Imax, and I love 3-D, so I’ll take what I can get. ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2006, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/34 "2006-06-22T18:38:57Z")
> [@pinkfreud](#): > > I’m aware of that. However, that’s still a big incentive to me. I love Imax, and I love 3-D, so I’ll take what I can get. Just wanted to be sure. I cover the Imax business and there’s some concern that there may be lots of people expecting to see the whole film in 3D. ---
**Author:** ![ParadoxMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@ParadoxMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParadoxMan)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2006, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/35 "2006-06-22T19:06:25Z")
> [@Amaranta](#): > > - Budget. The budget is estimated at over $260 million. It will have to make twice that to break even. I don’t mcuh more than that happening with this movie. I don’t know if I even see that much happening. According to [The-numbers.com](http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2006/SPRMN.php) > [@](#): > > that puts the actual production budget at $209 million ---
**Author:** ![Gordon\_Urquhart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/db5fbb/32.png) [@Gordon\_Urquhart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gordon_Urquhart)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2006, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666/36 "2006-06-22T19:55:09Z")
I’m guessing $360 million domestic, which would put it between Jurassic Park ($357m) and The Passion of the Christ ($370m) in the [all-time list](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm). _Superman Returns_ has the potential for many people to see it multiple times – not on the scale of The Passion of the Christ nor Titanic, but I think some people will see it in a regular theater first, and then decide to see it in IMAX. On that Box Office Mojo list, I was kind of surprised to discover that the original Pirates of the Caribbean movie only made $305m – if there’s not a high degree of sustainable interest for the sequel, that bodes very well for _Superman Returns_. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-anyone-predict-the-box-office-success-of-superman-returns/360666.md?page=1)