# Can Brown really beat Coakley for the MA Senate seat? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 15, 2010, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114 "2010-01-15T19:49:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/1 "2010-01-15T19:49:59Z")
Hard to imagine, but the race is now neck-and-neck. [Poll shows Brown Overtaking Coakley](http://www.suffolk.edu/39994.html) Still within the margin of error, but who’d’ve thunk even this would happen just a few weeks ago? It’s been a long time since I live in MA, and I’m not much in touch with politics there these days. Can the Dems bail out Coakley’s sinking numbers? This is definitely a race to watch. Insight from our resident Bay Staters welcome! Coakley = D Brown = R This is for Kennedy’s replacement. There’s a Libertarian Kennedy running also, but no relation. ---
**Author:** ![erislover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/71e660/32.png) [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/2 "2010-01-15T20:32:22Z")
I don’t really keep up with local opinion, but Coakley is running a pretty negative television campaign right now. It didn’t work out against Patrick when Healey tried it (she ran a very negative campaign). ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/3 "2010-01-15T20:46:08Z")
I keep hearing that MA likes to balance out their overwhelming Dem politicians with a Republican or two…maybe this is the one. I also understand that the health care proposal is unpopular in MA since they are home to a lot of medical supply manufacturers who will have their products taxed under Obamacare. Add that on top of the rising costs and wait times to see a doctor in MA Commonwealth Care and I don’t see a reason why Brown can’t win. ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/4 "2010-01-15T20:49:13Z")
I live in Mass and I’m not in touch with the politics here. But I’m \* guessing \* that most people have actually been paying very little attention to the election, assuming mostly that it was a done deal. So the perceived closeness of the election will probably turn out well for Coakley in that it will bring out all the voters who up til now would have been content to stay home and let someone else vote her into office. As far as the candidates go, neither one has much presence or name recognition, either popular or not, so I doubt that’s driving Brown’s surge. I can tell you that both parties are starting to drop some serious coin on TV ads – none of which have swayed me one way or another (Coakley: “Brown is a meanie”, Brown: “Coakley is saying mean things about me and that makes me sad.”) ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/5 "2010-01-15T20:52:11Z")
I spoke to a well-known republican strategist a few days ago about this and he thought, at the time (When Brown was up by 2) that Coakley wins by 5. One current poll has him up 15 now. But I don’t know how much that changes things. I hope he pulls it out. Not only because he’s a Rep., but because I’m tired of seats belonging to one party. Tired of the sense of entitlement. and sick and tired of anything with the taint of Kennedy. I threw in a hundred bucks to help the cause here: [noparse][http://www.brownforussenate.com](http://www.brownforussenate.com)[/noparse] ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/6 "2010-01-15T21:14:31Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > I spoke to a well-known republican strategist a few days ago about this and he thought, at the time (When Brown was up by 2) that Coakley wins by 5. One current poll has him up 15 now. But I don’t know how much that changes things. I hope he pulls it out. Not only because he’s a Rep., but because I’m tired of seats belonging to one party. Tired of the sense of entitlement. and sick and tired of anything with the taint of Kennedy. > > I threw in a hundred bucks to help the cause here: [noparse][http://www.brownforussenate.com](http://www.brownforussenate.com)[/noparse] Obama has decided to go campaign for Coakley. If VA and NJ are any indicators this can only help Brown. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/7 "2010-01-15T21:17:53Z")
> [@yorick73](#): > > Obama has decided to go campaign for Coakley. If VA and NJ are any indicators this can only help Brown. I hope your right. But I don’t think those states are as strongly Dem as MA. But if he does go, and Coakley loses, that’s an even more significant win for the Reps. And really, really bad news for everything Obama. But I don’t underestimate the speechifying of the silver-tongued one. ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/8 "2010-01-15T21:23:26Z")
I’ll give you VA but NJ is the bluest of blue. Also, I think Obama’s run out of gas in the speechifying department. I just don’t think he has the passion or the mojo anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/9 "2010-01-15T21:24:25Z")
Tons of cash flowing in for both of them, so I assume that the long weekend in Mass will be covered in flyers, ads, robo-calls, etc. Today’s WSJ editorial page (yeah, I know, hush) has Dorothy Rabinowitz reminding us all of Coakley’s role in the Amirault witchunts. Depending on how much that article is shared and read, that might cost Coakley a couple of votes as well. For those of you who don’t mind reading the far right WSJ editorial page… [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281204575003341640657862.html](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281204575003341640657862.html) > [@](#): > > What does this say about her candidacy? (Ms. Coakley declined to be interviewed.) If the current attorney general of Massachusetts actually believes, as no serious citizen does, the preposterous charges that caused the Amiraults to be thrown into prison—the butcher knife rape with no blood, the public tree-tying episode, the mutilated squirrel and the rest—that is powerful testimony to the mind and capacities of this aspirant to a Senate seat. It is little short of wonderful to hear now of Ms. Coakley’s concern for the rights of terror suspects at Guantanamo—her urgent call for the protection of the right to the presumption of innocence. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/10 "2010-01-15T21:28:13Z")
> [@Algher](#): > > Today’s WSJ editorial page (yeah, I know, hush) has Dorothy Rabinowitz reminding us all of Coakley’s role in the Amirault witchunts. Depending on how much that article is shared and read, that might cost Coakley a couple of votes as well. Wouldn’t you say that those who read the WSJ editorial page have pretty much already made up their minds? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/11 "2010-01-15T21:32:18Z")
The majority of WSJ readers probably are going to vote Republican anyway, but now that the editorial is written, it’s out there, and will be accessible and read by people who aren’t regular WSJ readers, which might include some people on the fence. ---
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/12 "2010-01-15T21:32:26Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Wouldn’t you say that those who read the WSJ editorial page have pretty much already made up their minds? Yeah, but the Journal itself is read by more people than just the Right. I can see this editorial hitting a lot of mailboxes, and being passed around. It is more of a tool to be used by the Right. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/13 "2010-01-15T21:38:48Z")
> [@](#): > > One current poll has him up 15 now. But I don’t know how much that changes things. From a minor pollster that has, in the past, trended to about a 25 point Republican bias. Take that into account, and the fact that they only have Brown up by 15 actually looks like a positive for Coakley, to the extent that it means anything at all. That said, the reputable polls do currently look like it really could plausibly go either way. This is definitely not a race that either side wants to just let coast on its momentum. ---
**Author:** ![Algher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Algher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algher)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/14 "2010-01-15T21:56:43Z")
[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34876791/ns/politics-more\_politics/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34876791/ns/politics-more_politics/) > [@](#): > > Poll numbers > A Suffolk University survey released late Thursday showed that Brown, a Republican state senator, with 50 percent of the vote in the race to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in this overwhelmingly Democratic state. > > Coakley had 46 percent. That amounted to a statistical tie since it was within the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error, but it was far different from a 15-point lead that Coakley, the Massachusetts attorney general, enjoyed in a Boston Globe survey released over the weekend. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/15 "2010-01-15T22:16:56Z")
> [@Algher](#): > > [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34876791/ns/politics-more\_politics/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34876791/ns/politics-more_politics/) That’s the poll I linked to in the OP. My gut tells me that more Dems get out to vote and Coakley wins. How do MA folks feel about the health care bill, considering their state already has their own deal going? Will the new bill help them in any way or affect their own health care plan? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/16 "2010-01-15T22:58:08Z")
Also, how do the MA folks feel about the Massachusetts health care plan? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/17 "2010-01-15T23:10:07Z")
When is Election Day? ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/18 "2010-01-15T23:10:52Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > When is Election Day? Tuesday ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/19 "2010-01-15T23:21:04Z")
From [Politics1.com:](http://www.politics1.com/) > [@](#): > > NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 11, 2010. MASSACHUSETTS: The US Senate special election is just a week away, and independent polls are showing wildly varying numbers. The Public Policy Polling-D survey placed State Senator Scott Brown (R) ahead of Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) by a 48-47 vote. By contrast, a new _Boston Globe_ poll released Sunday shows Coakley leading by a 50-35 vote, with libertarian activist Joe Kennedy (Independent) at 5%. A Rasmussen poll earlier in the week showed: Coakley - 50%, Brown - 41%, Kennedy - 1%. The state is solidly Democratic, so Coakley’s greatest problem is simply voter apathy among a complacent Dem base versus motivated Republicans. In a special election like this contest, the outcome will be entirely decided by turnout … ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/20 "2010-01-15T23:41:54Z")
> [@Algher](#): > > Tons of cash flowing in for both of them, so I assume that the long weekend in Mass will be covered in flyers, ads, robo-calls, etc. > > Today’s WSJ editorial page (yeah, I know, hush) has Dorothy Rabinowitz reminding us all of Coakley’s role in the Amirault witchunts. Depending on how much that article is shared and read, that might cost Coakley a couple of votes as well. > > For those of you who don’t mind reading the far right WSJ editorial page… > > [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281204575003341640657862.html](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281204575003341640657862.html) (my highlights) Was it necessary? Two ad hominen against your own quote? It’s not like you’re quoting from Mein Kampf or The Little Red Book, you know. * * * It’d be devastating for the Dems to lose this seat. Not only for the obvious filibuster issues, but also because it could (and would) be used as a sign of Obama’s decline. I agree with Magellna01 that the whole “Kennedy seat” stuff is undemocratic to say the least. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114.md?page=2)