# Can Brown really beat Coakley for the MA Senate seat? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 15, 2010, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114 "2010-01-15T19:49:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/61 "2010-01-16T20:51:15Z")
> [@Evil\_One](#): > > I repeat…the polticial significance of this development is that a Senate race is Massachusetts is so close that a Democrat president is required to come campaign for a democrat candidate to try and stave off defeat in a very blue state. > > This indicates a departure from the political norm. The reasons for this departure are being debated behind ideological lines. Given the results of other off-year statewide elections recently, and the polling in the Mass. race, it appears the democrats are in trouble. > > Those who support Obama and his ideology are pointing to Coakley being the problem instead of the national Democrat message. I disagree, based on national polling and election results. > > Obama is risking political capital by coming to campaign for Coakley. If she loses, he will be seen as ineffective and tarnished. Except by his fervent supporters of course. But Obama wouldn’t be coming if he thought it wouldn’t help. Democrats in general and Obama specifically, and even the health care plan are all popular in Massachusetts. I think it was the PPP poll from last weekend that had Brown beating Coakley by two points, but showed Obama with 57% approval among the same voters, even after their likely voter model gave a rather more right-leaning electorate than the 2008 election. The Democratic Party agenda is popular in Massachusetts, but that leads to dysfunctional one-party politics, which sometimes leads to backlash. Sure it fits into this narrative of anti-Obama sentiment, but the only national trend that this is part of is Democratic complacency and arrogance, after years like 2006 and 2008, where a ham sandwich could beat a Republican in Massachusetts or New Jersey. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/62 "2010-01-16T21:04:17Z")
> [@waterj2](#): > > But Obama wouldn’t be coming if he thought it wouldn’t help. Democrats in general and Obama specifically, and even the health care plan are all popular in Massachusetts. Is it? I’ve been trying to find some polling data on that, but haven’t been able to. ---
**Author:** ![Nicest\_of\_the\_Damned](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/8baadc/32.png) [@Nicest\_of\_the\_Damned](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nicest_of_the_Damned)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/63 "2010-01-16T21:40:51Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is it? I’ve been trying to find some polling data on that, but haven’t been able to. Here is one from a few months ago: > **[News | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health](https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/)** > > The latest public health news delivered right to your inbox. I have both liberal and conservative friends and honestly it’s not much a topic of conversation. I was amazed by how little I actually heard about the law after it went into effect. As I said upthread, I am sure the law has had a significant effect on some people but it’s just not something I hear a lot of talk about at the man-(or woman)-on-the-street level. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/64 "2010-01-16T22:08:07Z")
> [@Evil\_One](#): > > I repeat…the polticial significance of this development is that a Senate race is Massachusetts is so close that a Democrat president is required to come campaign for a democrat candidate to try and stave off defeat in a very blue state. > > This indicates a departure from the political norm. The reasons for this departure are being debated behind ideological lines. Given the results of other off-year statewide elections recently, and the polling in the Mass. race, it appears the democrats are in trouble. > > Those who support Obama and his ideology are pointing to Coakley being the problem instead of the national Democrat message. I disagree, based on national polling and election results. > > Obama is risking political capital by coming to campaign for Coakley. If she loses, he will be seen as ineffective and tarnished. Except by his fervent supporters of course. And I repeat…“Republicans in open races [in Mass.] typically get at least 45 percent of the vote.” Brown’s success to date is not nearly as significant as you clearly want it to be. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/65 "2010-01-16T23:52:50Z")
> [@Nicest\_of\_the\_Damned](#): > > Here is one from a few months ago: > [http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/2009-releases/fifty-nine-percent-support-massachusetts-2006-health-reform-law.html](http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/2009-releases/fifty-nine-percent-support-massachusetts-2006-health-reform-law.html) > > I have both liberal and conservative friends and honestly it’s not much a topic of conversation. I was amazed by how little I actually heard about the law after it went into effect. As I said upthread, I am sure the law has had a significant effect on some people but it’s just not something I hear a lot of talk about at the man-(or woman)-on-the-street level. I thought we were talking about the health care bill currently being pushed through Congress, not the one enacted in MA in 2006. I think even Brown is saying he supports that. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/66 "2010-01-17T00:00:05Z")
Sometimes its the small things that can sink a candidate. [Like this.](http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0110/Coakley_and_Schilling.html?showall) Be sure to see Schilling’s response at the very bottom. Nicely done, Curt. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/67 "2010-01-17T00:06:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is it? I’ve been trying to find some polling data on that, but haven’t been able to. [Here’s](http://arkansasgopwing.blogspot.com/2010/01/51-in-massachusetts-oppose-dem-health.html) the best I could do: > [@](#): > > A new poll from Suffolk University and 7 News in Boston report some astounding numbers on how voters in the Bay State view the Washington Democrats’ health care reform proposals. While the poll notes that 54% support Massachusetts’ own health care plan, a majority, 51% actually oppose “the proposed national health care plan.” Some of the opposition may be due to the fact that 61% “believe the federal government cannot afford the proposed national health care plan.” Given the sea of debt the federal government is swimming in, this in an understandable reaction. Democrats are poised to raise the debt ceiling past $13 trillion ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/68 "2010-01-17T02:08:09Z")
> [@](#): > > UPDATE: Schilling responds: “I’ve been called a lot of things…but never, I mean never, could anyone make the mistake of calling me a Yankee fan. Well, check that, if you didn’t know what the hell is going on in your own state maybe you could…” The sports knowledge of candidates for elective office being among the more important qualifications. I wonder if Mr. Schilling can name the last three Massachusetts Attorneys General\*? CMC fnord! \*I wonder if Mr. Schilling knows it’s Attorneys General and not Attorney Generals? ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/69 "2010-01-17T02:21:37Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > The sports knowledge of candidates for elective office being among the more important qualifications. > > I wonder if Mr. Schilling can name the last three Massachusetts Attorneys General\*? > > CMC fnord! > \*I wonder if Mr. Schilling knows it’s Attorneys General and not Attorney Generals? When you’re running for office and talk about a local hero, you either know what you’re talking about or you shut your mouth. True, it has no bearing on her ability to govern. But it does have something to do with her ability to get elected. Or inability, whichever the case may be come Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![BrotherCadfael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@BrotherCadfael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrotherCadfael)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/70 "2010-01-17T02:30:48Z")
I was watching some discussion panel the other day, and a panelist (a Democratic woman) made the claim that “Massachusetts’ dirty little secret is that they never elect a women.” She was specifically speaking of Congress - their entire delegation has only one female member. Don’t know if this is true or if it has any bearing on the current race. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/71 "2010-01-17T02:44:58Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > The sports knowledge of candidates for elective office being among the more important qualifications. > > I wonder if Mr. Schilling can name the last three Massachusetts Attorneys General\*? > > CMC fnord! > \*I wonder if Mr. Schilling knows it’s Attorneys General and not Attorney Generals? Check out the big brain on **crowmanyclouds**. We’re talking about winning elections. Gaffes like that don’t help win elections. Add that to her comment about not seeing the need to shake hands with strangers outside Fenway Park, and you get a pol who is out of touch with the electorate. Not good. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/72 "2010-01-17T02:59:24Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I think the risk is worth it, though. If Coakley loses, it’s a huge setback for the Obama agenda, and it will probably reverberate into the Nov elections, too. IMO, he really has little choice about going. I have to wonder how much of an effect he can have given how close we are to voting day, the bad weather being forecast and the 3-day weekend where a lot of people are off skiing. But he’s got to try. It would be crazy not to. It’s funny, but I heard something in passing about how bad weather would likely give Brown a boost because dems would probably stay home, being the less motivated party, while the more motivated pubs would vote anyway. That was two weeks ago, so if there is a storm Tuesday - which would be a day later than here - it’ll be interesting to see what happens. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/73 "2010-01-17T03:14:22Z")
Yes, folks, the fate of health care legislation in the US depends on the weather in MA on Tuesday. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/74 "2010-01-17T04:31:56Z")
Well, then, God is smiling on the Democrats! The weather will be rain-to-snow on Sunday night into Monday; snowy on Wednesday; but Tuesday is forecast to be dry, not too cold, and not windy. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/75 "2010-01-17T04:38:34Z")
> [@BrotherCadfael](#): > > I was watching some discussion panel the other day, and a panelist (a Democratic woman) made the claim that “Massachusetts’ dirty little secret is that they never elect a women.” She was specifically speaking of Congress - their entire delegation has only one female member. Don’t know if this is true or if it has any bearing on the current race. There’s certainly _some_ truth to it. Shannon O’Brien lost to Mitt Romney (as did three other women running on the Libertarian, Green and independent tickets, but they were never in contention anyways). Jane Swift was governor, but was never elected to the post, Kerry Healy lost to Deval Patrick. And I think Nikki Tsongas, widow of former Senator (and Presidential candidate) Paul Tsongas, was the first woman in the Congressional delegation. I think it’s really only the sort of pattern that seems really significant to those who want to believe it. I’m thinking of those aggrieved Hillary supporters who got so much media attention towards the end of the Democratic primaries last year. Kerry Healy, especially, started as the heir to Romney, long after he had worn out any goodwill he had in the state, and then ran a horrible campaign notable mainly for its comically ridiculous negative ads. Swift was shoved aside by the Republican Party establishment to make way for the more electable Romney, and O’Brien seems to have simply lost lost. The lack of success that women have had in the state is a bit of an anomaly (especially given that blacks and gays have notably done better than they have in other states). ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/76 "2010-01-17T04:45:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes, folks, the fate of health care legislation in the US depends on the weather in MA on Tuesday. 😉 I know this is a joke, but it does make me wonder just how important this thing is to health care reform, and the agenda of an entire Presidency for the next 3-7 years. I know much bigger things have revolved around much smaller events, but it’s hard to tell hyperbole and partisan hopes from reality. Also, I’ve seen a comment from one liberal in MA that the polls are actually _helping_ the Democratic cause, by scaring Dem voters who have been, up to now, complacent or apathetic. I guess that’s why polls seem to be so unstable and useless. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/77 "2010-01-17T04:58:01Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Well, of course not! His “fervent supporters” probably cannot see the clear objective truth outlined in your perfectly non-partisan analysis. Point out the error of my ways, Luci. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/78 "2010-01-17T05:18:13Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I know this is a joke, but it does make me wonder just how important this thing is to health care reform, and the agenda of an entire Presidency for the next 3-7 years. I know much bigger things have revolved around much smaller events, but it’s hard to tell hyperbole and partisan hopes from reality. > > Also, I’ve seen a comment from one liberal in MA that the polls are actually _helping_ the Democratic cause, by scaring Dem voters who have been, up to now, complacent or apathetic. I guess that’s why polls seem to be so unstable and useless. Yeah, there’s really no telling what turnout is going to be like. This is the first time that Massachusetts has used the law they passed back in '04 providing for a special election to fill a Senate vacancy (which was notably modified last year to also provide for an appointee in the meantime). So I don’t think there’s any sort of precedent. Hell, there hasn’t been an open Senate seat since Kerry’s election in the early 80s. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/79 "2010-01-17T05:41:31Z")
> [@Evil\_One](#): > > Point out the error of my ways, Luci. Just poking fun at the way you tacked on an alibi to the end of your argument. “Fervent supporters”, you imply, lack your objectivity and clear, unbiased cogitation. That’s why they will disagree with you, which they wouldn’t if they were normal. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114/80 "2010-01-17T06:31:07Z")
But seriously, folks… [http://thinkprogress.org/2010/01/15/wallst-scott-brown/](http://thinkprogress.org/2010/01/15/wallst-scott-brown/) Wherein is outlined the massive enthusiasm for Brown evinced by corporadoes and the Wall Street running dog jackals of the ruling class. For some, that would be a ringing endorsement and a glowing testament. (Your correspondent recognizes that Think Progress is a partisan news related site, but I’ve trusted their veracity for years and they haven’t burned me yet.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-brown-really-beat-coakley-for-the-ma-senate-seat/525114.md?page=5)