# Can Clinton win Arizona? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 30, 2016, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461 "2016-08-30T04:31:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/41 "2016-10-12T18:47:02Z")
> [@Lightlystarched](#): > > Woot! FiveThirtyEight has Arizona the palest shade of blue today. And Hillary’s chance of winning is up to 52.7%. That’s still just the polls-only model - polls-plus still thinks Arizona is reliably red and gives Trump a 58.4% chance of winning. On the other hand, I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made that ‘fundamentals’ aren’t going to be particularly predictive in a race as crazy as this one has gotten. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/42 "2016-10-12T19:00:14Z")
A 58.4% chance of winning isn’t reliable anything. It means that in that model it’s still pink instead or robin’s-egg, but it’s still a fairly light pink. ---
**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/43 "2016-10-12T19:02:19Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > A 58.4% chance of winning isn’t reliable anything. It means that in that model it’s still pink instead or robin’s-egg, but it’s still a fairly light pink. Well, the model thinks Arizona is red, but that Trump is a wash-out. It averages to pink. Point taken, though. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/44 "2016-10-17T09:45:37Z")
> [@Jragon](#): > > It’s not even really a matter of “close”, for all intents and purposes Phoenix/Tempe/Chandler are a single city (+ a few smaller places like Gilbert). You can pass through several towns (or leave and re-enter the same town several times) on your way to work or school if you live there. They’re essentially just boroughs at this point. **Jragon** , I thought about this post of yours when I saw the following headline from _The Onion_: [**New Study Finds Most Of Earth’s Landmass Will Be Phoenix Suburb By 2050**](http://www.theonion.com/article/new-study-finds-most-earths-landmass-will-be-phoen-54107) > [@](#): > > “Projecting present growth trends forward, we were able to determine that 35 years from now, the suburban area surrounding Phoenix, AZ will have expanded to occupy nearly 70 percent of all land on Earth…” > North America would be subsumed by the suburban sprawl spreading out from Scottsdale by 2030, while new subdivisions on the outskirts of Glendale and Litchfield Park would continue expanding westward, crossing the Pacific Ocean and encompassing most of Asia over the following decade. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/45 "2016-10-17T10:10:00Z")
Arizona is the only state now which flips between polls only and plus plus. ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2016, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/46 "2016-10-20T00:33:56Z")
As if right now, 538 shows a 55% chance of Clinton winning Arizona. And Wallethub ranks which states have the ‘most powerful voters,’ and it ranks Arizona #1. This mostly means that it is the closest to being a swing state. > **[States with the Most & Least Powerful Voters for the Midterms](https://wallethub.com/edu/how-much-is-your-vote-worth/7932)** ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2016, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/47 "2016-10-20T03:46:55Z")
I bet a douchbag at the gym $100 that Trump will lose the election. If he loses Arizona, too, I think I’ll actually pay him the $100, just to rub it in! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2016, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/48 "2016-10-20T03:59:53Z")
Arizona’s a toss up. So the answer is “yes.” It’s not terribly surprising Arizona would start looking blue. Again, the real red-blue split is not just, or even largely, along state borders; it’s also between urban and rural areas. Arizonans are disproportionately located in one city, Phoenix; the city alone holds more than 20% of the state, and if you count immediately connected urban areas it’s half the state. It’s a large, rich, cosmopolitan city, and those places are turning blue. Fun fact: Phoenix is the most populous city in the USA that is the capital of something. That’s why Texas (many large cities) and Georgia (Atlanta) are also looking a little more purple these days; big cities. But states without really big cities are still dead red. There are no truly big cities in Wyoming, West Virginia, Arkansas, or Mississippi. ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2016, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/49 "2016-10-20T04:36:33Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Arizonans are disproportionately located in one city, Phoenix… It’s a large, rich, cosmopolitan city… As a resident of Phoenix, I have to violently disagree. It’s pretty politan. Very few cosmos to be found. The biggest problem politically in Arizona that keeps it more of a red state that tracks Southern/Midwestern apart from other somewhat similar states like Nevada and Colorado is that Arizona is so [poor](http://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/economy/2015/10/04/arizona-remains-among-worst-poverty/73234934/). If there was less poverty in Arizona, which would also likely include a boost in the college education % of the population, it would be more of a true swing state. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/50 "2016-10-25T09:31:18Z")
Jan Brewer is “helping”. When asked whether Arizona could tip to the Democrats she said that Latinos “don’t get out and vote”. I’m guessing they will now. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/51 "2016-10-25T10:25:23Z")
And if there’s one person Latinos despise in Arizona (or anywhere) it’s Jan Brewer. They probably hate her 100X more than they hate Trump. ---
**Author:** ![campp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@campp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/campp)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/52 "2016-10-25T11:49:38Z")
Governor Ducey is still firmly supporting Trump. McCain wants to distance himself from Trump, but it’s too late for him. I think McCain is done. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461/53 "2016-10-25T11:58:55Z")
> [@campp](#): > > I think McCain is done. 😕 He’s been consistently up at least 10 points in the majority of polls I’ve seen. Unless he suddenly drops dead (which is not outside the realm of possibility, he’s 80 years old), I don’t see him losing that race. Why do you say he’s done? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-clinton-win-arizona/764461.md?page=2)