# Can Democrats actually stop the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 4, 2018, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733 "2018-09-04T12:49:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 320
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6382 "2018-10-05T20:08:10Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The fundraising page for Collins’ 2020 opponent has apparently crashed from the overload. I was able to contribute ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6383 "2018-10-05T20:08:12Z")
At this point I’m just hoping the whole place gets invaded by rabid wolverines and Collins, Flake et al are first to go down. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6384 "2018-10-05T20:09:02Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Knock me over with a feather. > > It won’t happen, of course, but here’s my fantasy: Cory Gardner realizes this means he has a free ‘No’ vote and takes advantage of it, but since they vote in alphabetical order, that puts Manchin in the position of knowing he’ll be the 50th vote. His brain overloads under the pressure, he has a nervous breakdown on the Senate floor, and has to be hospitalized without casting his vote. Then Murkowski realizes that _she_ no longer has a free ‘No’ vote, ducks into the cloak room, leaves the building in a panic and catches the next plane back to Alaska. But now it’s 49-49 (and unlike with cloture they don’t need 50, just a majority) and Pence breaks the tie. That would be boofing awesome. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6385 "2018-10-05T20:09:21Z")
Best case scenario for the Democrats – they win the House and Senate, investigate Kavanaugh, prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he’s a despicable lying scumbag, and he resigns from the shame, leaving the seat open until 2020. Not terribly likely, but we’ll see. The moral arc of the universe is long, but it does bend towards justice. I hope, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6386 "2018-10-05T20:10:17Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > I don’t know if Manchin will vote Yes if his vote would put the confirmation vote at 51. Which leads to a 50-50 tie, assuming Senator Daines’s plane doesn’t crash getting back from Montana, and a Pence vote to confirm. Since they only need 50, not 51, Manchin’s vote is a free vote. He might not have been the 50th vote, but he will be the 51st. That’s why he announced his vote right after Collins finally, _finally_ finished. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6387 "2018-10-05T20:13:46Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Since they only need 50, not 51, Manchin’s vote is a free vote. He might not have been the 50th vote, but he will be the 51st. That’s why he announced his vote right after Collins finally, _finally_ finished. True, but Daines has to come back and vote Yes for that to be true. And he’s not going to make it until some time after the start of voting. I guess Manchin could sit around and wait a few hours after the start until Daines finally shows up, but otherwise, he’ll have to get his vote in before Daines. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6388 "2018-10-05T20:14:24Z")
The notion that Kavanaugh getting confirmed to SCOTUS is good for Democrats because it will energize Democratic voters sounds like a version of the Broken Window Fallacy. And if Kavanaugh were voted down, wouldn’t people also say that’s good for Democrats because Kav being rejected would…energize Democratic voters? That’s circular or roundabout. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6389 "2018-10-05T20:15:17Z")
Spineless little shit. Hope she enjoys her last term. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6390 "2018-10-05T20:16:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The notion that Kavanaugh getting confirmed to SCOTUS is good for Democrats because it will energize Democratic voters sounds like a version of the Broken Window Fallacy. > > And if Kavanaugh were voted down, wouldn’t people also say that’s good for Democrats because Kav being rejected would…energize Democratic voters? That’s circular or roundabout. I’m not seeing the circle. It’s possibly an overly _optimistic_ view, trying to see the positive aspects of either outcome, but where’s the circle? ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6391 "2018-10-05T20:18:22Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Since they only need 50, not 51, Manchin’s vote is a free vote. He might not have been the 50th vote, but he will be the 51st. That’s why he announced his vote right after Collins finally, _finally_ finished. What a coward. Not exactly a Profile In Courage. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6392 "2018-10-05T20:18:27Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Joe waited until he knew it was happening with or without him. > > If he’s reelected look for him to switch party or to go “Independent caucusing with GOP. “ He’s already announced it’ll be his last term in the Senate so I doubt it. The pork will be flowing freely to West Virginia regardless of his party affiliation. And, there are some West Virginians who didn’t like that bait and switch their governor pulled last year. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6393 "2018-10-05T20:19:36Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I’m not seeing the circle. It’s possibly an overly _optimistic_ view, trying to see the positive aspects of either outcome, but where’s the circle? Maybe circle wasn’t the right term, but the argument seems to be “X is good for us, because Y,” but also “opposite of X is good for us, because Y.” Kav being confirmed = Democrats will be mad = D’s win Kav being rejected = Democrats will be energized = D’s win ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6394 "2018-10-05T20:22:44Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Maybe circle wasn’t the right term, but the argument seems to be “X is good for us, because Y,” but also “opposite of X is good for us, because Y.” > > Kav being confirmed = Democrats will be mad = D’s win > Kav being rejected = Democrats will be energized = D’s win I think “confirmation = mad Democrats” is much more likely than “rejected = energized Democrats.” If we kept Kavanough off the court, then “everything is okay” the way things are would be the more likely outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6395 "2018-10-05T20:27:44Z")
Susan Collins says that Kavanaugh will be able to bridge the partisan divide in this country by being on the Court. The most divisive nominee in history, and somehow he’s going to heal the divisions in this country? You’ve got to be shitting me. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6396 "2018-10-05T20:27:52Z")
I think the real fireworks will be when 85 year old RBG steps down from the Court. You can, if you squint, between your fingers, maybe think that Kavanaugh will rule similarly to Kennedy. He was one of Kennedy’s clerks, was allegedly proposed by Kennedy to Trump to be his replacement, and the unspoken quid pro quo was that Kennedy wouldn’t retire if Trump didn’t nominate Kavanaugh. Well, he’s not like Kennedy on 4th Amendment stuff, where Kavanaugh’s no friend of civil liberties, nor probably on guns, where he was the D.C. Circuit dissent on Heller. It’s impossible to imagine Trump nominating anyone in the same universe ideologically as RBG. Rather the opposite. And if she leaves in the next two years or so, and the GOP holds the Senate (as they are favored to do) that’s what will happen. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6397 "2018-10-05T20:31:14Z")
> [@Blalron](#): > > Susan Collins says that Kavanaugh will be able to bridge the partisan divide in this country by being on the Court. The most divisive nominee in history, and somehow he’s going to heal the divisions in this country? You’ve got to be shitting me. :rolleyes: She’s clueless. We haven’t warmed up to Thomas over the past 25 years, and this guy is worse by any standard. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6398 "2018-10-05T20:31:15Z")
It’s pretty clear the only way Ginsberg leaves under Trump is if she dies or is very sick. And the same is true for the other liberals although they are younger. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6399 "2018-10-05T20:34:56Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > It’s pretty clear the only way Ginsberg leaves under Trump is if she dies or is very sick. And the same is true for the other liberals although they are younger. I was trying to be polite. She’s 85, and though she’s already beaten pancreatic cancer, which just doesn’t happen, two years is a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6400 "2018-10-05T20:36:35Z")
Breyer is 80 so he’s not far behind Ginsberg ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733/6401 "2018-10-05T20:47:20Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Breyer is 80 so he’s not far behind Ginsberg True, and when he takes some shuteye during a SOTU address, people will start publicly worrying about that for him too. For that matter, Trump is 72, and will be 74 in 2020. FDR was 63, and LBJ 64 when they died. People live a lot longer these days, though, and medical care has improved immensely. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733.md?page=319) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-actually-stop-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh/820733.md?page=321)