# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/221 "2018-03-15T13:03:11Z")
> [@whitetho](#): > > _Rolling Stone_ is in partial agreement with Fox & Friends, noting in [Why Democrats Should Worry About Conor Lamb’s Victory](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=20846054) that “If Lamb made anything clear in his campaign, it’s that he most certainly will vote with Trump on occasion. On guns, for one thing: Lamb opposes a ban on assault weapons, such as the AR-15 he was shown firing in one of his campaign ads. He supports the president’s trade policies, too including the new tariffs. He pooh-poohs single-payer healthcare. He’s as ‘pro-military’ as a person could be. (He is also ‘personally opposed’ to abortion, though he says it should be legal.)” This link goes to the “ reply to thread” page. Here’s the correct link > **[Why Democrats Should Worry About Conor Lamb's Victory](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/why-democrats-should-worry-about-conor-lambs-victory-122712/)** > > Dems pick up a House seat in Pennsylvania – but is Lamb the start of a winning strategy or the establishment sidelining the Trump Resistance? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/222 "2018-03-15T13:18:23Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > In all fairness to those who voted Libertarian, if they went into their voting booths completely unaware that this race was down to the wire between the Democratic and Republican candidates, the weight of whatever rocks they’ve been living under the last couple weeks were probably compressing their brains too much for them to assess whether or not they’d prefer Saccone over Lamb. Dale’s point is spot on. The point is, they voted for someone who never had a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. This time, that practice worked out for progressives, but it’s something for embittered Bernie Bros and Jill Stein voters to consider. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/223 "2018-03-15T13:21:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So this win by a “Blue Dog Democrat” in a heavily gerrymandered R plus district is of course being trumpeted as a template for other Democrats in the mid-terms … in contrast possibly to both progressive wing candidates and more party establishment ones, but more the former. > > How generalizable is this really, both in the context of mid-terms and in context of the choice for the next Democratic presidential candidate? > > And if the Democrats get a House majority but that majority is split on major items of policy, what does that portend? The template, if there is one, should be that all politics are local and that when running a local race, you either run with the local brand of whatever side of the spectrum you represent, or face the consequences of defeat. Democrats can work out their differences on important issues but not if certain factions insist on spreading their own local ideology nationwide. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/224 "2018-03-15T13:45:32Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So this win by a “Blue Dog Democrat” in a heavily gerrymandered R plus district is of course being trumpeted as a template for other Democrats in the mid-terms … in contrast possibly to both progressive wing candidates and more party establishment ones, but more the former. > > How generalizable is this really, both in the context of mid-terms and in context of the choice for the next Democratic presidential candidate? > > And if the Democrats get a House majority but that majority is split on major items of policy, what does that portend? Sounds pretty much like Rahm Emanuel’s 2006 House takeover. Find electable people because Job One is taking control of the leadership positions. Sitting in a ideologically “pure” minority party gets you nothing. And you’re going to have much better luck compromising with a Democrat who doesn’t agree with you on a topic than you are with Republicans who are salivating to spin a Democratic policy or vote failure. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/225 "2018-03-15T14:04:01Z")
Fortunately for the GOP, one of their people has [figured out the source of the problem](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rick-saccone-republicans_us_5aa89295e4b0f7a689cd75ee): > [@](#): > > …An anonymous Pennsylvania GOP strategist told The Washington Examiner they had a very specific complaint about Saccone: His moustache was disgusting. > > “It’s a porn stache,” the strategist said… ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/226 "2018-03-15T14:19:47Z")
One lesson both parties can draw from this is the importance of each vote. Every vote counts. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/227 "2018-03-15T14:31:25Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > One lesson both parties can draw from this is the importance of each vote. Every vote counts. OMG, yes. Although we do not live in the 18th Congressional District, my gf works with people who do. One of her coworkers was not going to vote due to time constraints. My gf worked things out with HR to give the woman three of her unused hours-off-with-pay. Now able to vote, the woman also encouraged two of her neighbors to join her in voting for Lamb. So, three votes that otherwise would not have been cast. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/228 "2018-03-15T14:42:31Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > OMG, yes. Although we do not live in the 18th Congressional District, my gf works with people who do. One of her coworkers was not going to vote due to time constraints. My gf worked things out with HR to give the woman three of her unused hours-off-with-pay. > > Now able to vote, the woman also encouraged two of her neighbors to join her in voting for Lamb. So, three votes that otherwise would not have been cast. Tell your girlfriend that her service to the Republic has not gone unnoticed. A grateful nation thanks her. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/229 "2018-03-15T15:22:05Z")
Lamb winning by less than a 1000 votes, while impressive I suppose, does not necessarily indicate a “blue tsunami” I keep hearing about in November. I think Dems will take the house, I have always thought they would, you’d have to ignore history otherwise, but I do not think they will take the Senate. I could be wrong of course. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/230 "2018-03-15T15:23:25Z")
You guys don’t get time off to vote? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/231 "2018-03-15T15:30:08Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > You guys don’t get time off to vote? 😕 Polls are open a good part of the day in most places. It’s convenient to have time off to vote, but I’ve never found it necessary. Folks with different work schedules may have different experiences. ---
**Author:** ![SantaMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/da6949/32.png) [@SantaMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SantaMan)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/232 "2018-03-15T15:30:37Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Lamb winning by less than a 1000 votes, while impressive I suppose, does not necessarily indicate a “blue tsunami” I keep hearing about in November. > > I think Dems will take the house, I have always thought they would, you’d have to ignore history otherwise, but I do not think they will take the Senate. I could be wrong of course. A thousand vote margin in a competitive state would not be that impressive. Having won (or possibly a near miss) in a district where things are typically so lopsided that sometimes there is only one candidate candidate is more notable. “Beating the spread” by, double digits is notable in my book About the wave, I do worry that Democrats will live up(down?) to the old saying “Dems have the uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/233 "2018-03-15T15:31:21Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > You guys don’t get time off to vote? 😕 Not typically. Some of us are blessed to live in states where we can vote by mail from home. But traditionally, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m (or some variation of that) and people vote before or after work. (or not at all). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/234 "2018-03-15T15:31:46Z")
With which seats are up [the Senate is a hard lift _even with_ a tsunami](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/). > [@538](#): > > … Just how bad is this map for Democrats? It’s bad enough that it may be the worst Senate map that any party has faced ever, or at least since direct election of senators began in 1913. It’s bad enough that Democrats could conceivably gain 35 or 40 seats in the House … and not pick up the two seats they need in the Senate. … ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/235 "2018-03-15T15:36:28Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > I think Dems will take the house, I have always thought they would, you’d have to ignore history otherwise, but I do not think they will take the Senate. I could be wrong of course. Care to quantify that over in our [Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=847482)? ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/236 "2018-03-15T15:39:34Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Not typically. Some of us are blessed to live in states where we can vote by mail from home. But traditionally, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m (or some variation of that) and people vote before or after work. (or not at all). My gf and many of her coworkers work 12 hour shifts routinely. I like to be among the first to vote. I just turned 60 and voting is one of the few activities where I’m the youngest one present. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/237 "2018-03-15T16:06:14Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Lamb winning by less than a 1000 votes, while impressive I suppose, does not necessarily indicate a “blue tsunami” I keep hearing about in November. I think it’s the 12,000+ votes that came before that 1,000 that have people impressed. If someone fills a 20’ deep hole they’re trapped in, do you come by at the end and say “Pffft… he just stepped over the 6” lip to get out. _Boooooor-ring!_" 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/238 "2018-03-15T16:18:41Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Lamb winning by less than a 1000 votes, while impressive I suppose, does not necessarily indicate a “blue tsunami” I keep hearing about in November. > > I think Dems will take the house, I have always thought they would, you’d have to ignore history otherwise, but I do not think they will take the Senate. I could be wrong of course. PA 18 is a very GOP district. The GOP ran unopposed in 2014 and 2016 because the democrats figured they couldn’t win because in 2012 the dem candidate only got 36% of the vote. The fact that dem turnout was high and GOP turnout was low means that more purple districts are in play. As I mentioned upthread, there are 119 house districts held by republicans that are less GOP leaning than PA-18. If the democrats are competitive in PA-18, then they are competitive in all 119 districts. This may lead to a wave of GOP retirements rather than facing a losing reelection battle. Maybe a few dozen more GOP house members will announce retirement between now and november. Winning against a newcomer is easier than an incumbent. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/239 "2018-03-15T16:42:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > With which seats are up [the Senate is a hard lift _even with_ a tsunami](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated/). Agreed. But one thing that even Nate Silver admits is that it’s something of a guesstimate to gauge how highly correlated the outcomes of different Senate races are with each other. My gut instinct is that the correlation goes up in a ‘wave’ year: if overriding national factors weren’t in play, you wouldn’t have a wave. So I think 538’s 22% figure is low, but should it be 30%? 40%? As Silver says, under perfect correlation, the Dems’ chances would be 50%, but while we may have high correlation, we don’t have perfect correlation. ---
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2018, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/240 "2018-03-15T17:19:34Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So this win by a “Blue Dog Democrat” … And if the Democrats get a House majority but that majority is split on major items of policy, what does that portend? I had a bit of a personal epiphany when talking this over with my wife a yesterday. As a diehard democrat; very socially liberal and probably moderate fiscally, I’m 100% okay with the scenario this portends. If (big if) we end up in a scenario where those 114-119 (depending on who you ask) “districts more red than PA-18” find and elect Democrats, that gives us a house where the Democrats are a \>70% majority. However, a lot of them will be Blue Dog democrats, a lot very liberal, a lot in the middle between those two scales. Which seems perfectly fine to me … because what we’ll actually end up with is a House that can completely ignore anyone who’s an (R) and policy compromises between themselves… rather than intractable Ds vs. intractable Rs, we could maybe end up with a lot of more liberal Ds negotiating, compromising and most of all - actually fricking governing - with more conservative D’s. Would we end up with very liberal policies? No, we’ll have sound, reasoned policies that could be worked out between adults who actually care about making the country and its people better. Things could get done, something that hasn’t happened in Washington in 24 years. A dream, I know, but its nice to think about. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=13)