# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2018, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/261 "2018-03-18T12:17:50Z")
He said: “I think we need new leadership on both sides.” His position is that he appreciates her skills as both a fundraiser and as a field marshal, but: “I don’t think that changes the fact that people are ready for a new day.” Which in Maher’s book makes him “a pussy.” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2018, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/262 "2018-03-18T20:03:00Z")
[Relevant article in today’s NYT.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/18/us/politics/nancy-pelosi-democrats-candidates.html) > [@](#): > > … Mr. Lamb, by coming out early against Ms. Pelosi and scoring an upset win in a district President Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage points, has clearly emboldened some other Democrats to follow suit and disavow her. Republicans intend to make Ms. Pelosi’s unpopularity a centerpiece of their 2018 strategy, hoping that her polarizing status will mitigate their predicted losses. > > Anticipating this strategy from the right, Democratic candidates are increasingly opposing her as speaker or refusing to take a stand an act of political inoculation — a trend that even her allies acknowledge could ultimately imperil her grip on the Democratic caucus. > > At least two other senior Democrats, Representatives Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland and Joseph Crowley of New York, are already actively laying the groundwork to seek the leader’s job if Ms. Pelosi’s position becomes untenable. … > > … Most ominous for Ms. Pelosi, it is not just centrist candidates running in red-tinged districts who are reluctant to embrace her, but also political insurgents on the left who see her as an embodiment of the Washington establishment. > > “I would have to see who’s running,” said Marie Newman, a progressive Democratic House candidate in Illinois, when asked if she would support Ms. Pelosi for speaker. Ms. Newman is vying to unseat Representative Daniel Lipinski, a conservative Chicago Democrat, in a primary there on Tuesday. … > > … there is unease with Ms. Pelosi in solid-blue districts, too. In two Boston-area districts, neither the Democratic incumbents nor their more progressive rivals have committed to backing Ms. Pelosi. Brianna Wu, a liberal activist opposing Representative Stephen F. Lynch in a Democratic primary, said she was worried Democrats would suffer from Ms. Pelosi’s “inability to express a vision for the party.” > > Representative Kurt Schrader of Oregon, a moderate Democrat, said he had encouraged other congressional hopefuls to oppose Ms. Pelosi if necessary. > > “I have liberals back home, the one thing they really like about me is the fact that I voted against Nancy,” he said. “No matter what candidate you are, it’s not necessarily a bad message.” ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2018, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/263 "2018-03-19T10:11:09Z")
If Pelosi were smart - and she appears to be - she’d be perfectly happy to let new candidates play the “I hate Pelosi” card if it helps them get elected. They can hate her all the way into the Speaker’s chair. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2018, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/264 "2018-03-19T12:26:41Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > If Pelosi were smart - and she appears to be - she’d be perfectly happy to let new candidates play the “I hate Pelosi” card if it helps them get elected. They can hate her all the way into the Speaker’s chair. Exactly! Democrats can’t afford to splinter over anything when it comes to elections. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2018, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/265 "2018-03-19T13:36:18Z")
Damn straight. We should allow that to be the province of the Tea Party guys. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2018, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/266 "2018-03-19T14:10:02Z")
I’ve started a thread [here](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=851345) to discuss whether Pelosi should be replaced, and if so, by whom. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2018, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/267 "2018-03-22T01:40:36Z")
And the final answer to this thread is _yes_ as Rick Saccone decided to [concede defeat today](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/21/republican-rick-saccone-concedes-defeat-to-conor-lamb-in-pennsylvania-special-election/?utm_term=.3fc2acbdece4) rather than pursue some sort of challenge to the result. As a very unusual postscript, due to the fact that Pennsylvania will be using different districts in November and both Saccone and Conor Lamb have filed to run but not in the same race, it’s entirely plausible that both men could end up sitting in Congress next January anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2018, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/268 "2018-03-22T12:11:00Z")
I wonder why the GOP is rolling over and playing dead so quickly on this one? That’s not their usual MO. Do you suppose they judge the protracted publicity that a challenge would bring would only serve to remind the American public the party lost yet another seat in a special election that took place in ruby red district, while providing the very marginal benefit of putting one of their boys in a district that likely won’t exist in a few months? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2018, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/269 "2018-03-22T12:19:46Z")
Rick Saccone is not the right hill to die on in Pennsylvania. He was a bad, unpopular candidate, and this race is small potatoes in the long run. Plus, there really is zero way that they flip the results of this election. A recount wouldn’t do it, so they’d have to somehow prove widespread Democrat voter fraud. Widespread Democrat voter fraud is something that the GOP is good at talking about but bad at proving. The PA GOP has chosen a [different and even more ridiculous hill](http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pennsylvania-congressional-map-impeachment-supreme-court-justices-20180320.html) to die on instead. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2018, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/270 "2018-03-22T15:05:09Z")
It’s definitely the smart move to not fight too hard against this result, both because the stakes are so low, and because the cost is so high. In other words, I’m not sure why the Republicans aren’t doing it, either. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/271 "2018-03-23T13:39:36Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Rick Saccone is not the right hill to die on in Pennsylvania. He was a bad, unpopular candidate, and this race is small potatoes in the long run. Plus, there really is zero way that they flip the results of this election. A recount wouldn’t do it, so they’d have to somehow prove widespread Democrat voter fraud. Widespread Democrat voter fraud is something that the GOP is good at talking about but bad at proving. > > The PA GOP has chosen a [different and even more ridiculous hill](http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pennsylvania-congressional-map-impeachment-supreme-court-justices-20180320.html) to die on instead. > **[Pennsylvania Supreme Court Chief Scolds His Own Party For Trying To Impeach...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/pennsylvania-supreme-court-chief-scolds-203101879.html)** > > “Threats of impeachment directed against Justices because of their decision in a particular case are an attack upon an independent judiciary." This is the latest news on the attempt to impeach the Democratic PA Supreme Court judges. For those more knowledgeable about PA politics, does this have any chance of happening? As a related question, are the PA state house and senate seats as badly gerrymandered as the US congressional districts were? If so, is that gerrymandering being addressed? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2018, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/272 "2018-03-26T03:24:21Z")
[And now that the elections are no longer](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/03/25/facing-unfriendly-new-map-pennsylvania-gop-congressman-will-retire/?utm_term=.e31f11ff75eb) rigged in his favor, Rep. Ryan Costello will no longer seek re-election. > [@](#): > > Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.) won’t seek reelection this year, complicating the party’s chances of holding a seat in the Philadelphia suburbs after a court decision struck down a GOP-friendly map. > “It’s the most difficult decision I can recall having to make,” Costello told MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt on Sunday night. “I have an 8-month old. I have a 4-year old. And it’s a very challenging job, serving in Congress with a young family. > Republicans in Costello’s 6th Congressional District had been told this week that he’d abandon his campaign before the May 15 primary. The decision was first reported by City & State Pennsylvania, shocking Republicans who viewed the 41-year old as a rising star. ---
**Author:** ![Mithras](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f04885/32.png) [@Mithras](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mithras)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2018, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/273 "2018-03-26T13:21:04Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > As a related question, are the PA state house and senate seats as badly gerrymandered as the US congressional districts were? If so, is that gerrymandering being addressed? The state legislative districts are pretty egregious (in my opinion). I don’t know if there are any challenges to them now, but given the way they’re drawn, impeaching judges is the only way for the Republicans to maintain their nearly guaranteed majority. After the census, a five member commission is formed to draw a map. Two members are appointed by Republicans, two by Democrats, and unless they can agree on a fifth member (why would they?), the last is appointed by the State Supreme Court. As the court will likely be heavily Democratic for a long time, Republicans won’t get anything as favourable as the current map for at least two or three decades. Unless they impeach the judges. So while there’s a short-term benefit if they can pull that off, I see the attempt to remove Democratic judges to be more about ensuring long-term dominance. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/274 "2018-05-16T03:26:08Z")
Two Democratic Socialist candidates have defeated mainline incumbent Democrats for PA Assembly seats. There were no Republicans on the ballot, so it looks like they’re the shoo-ins. One of the mainstream Democrats,seeing the writing on the walls, tried to run a write-in candidacy for the Republican nomination, but apparently he didn’t get enough votes to make the November ballot. > **[Two socialists just won victories in Pennsylvania that Democrats can't ignore](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/05/two-millennial-socialists-take-down-a-pittsburgh-political-dynasty-1-results/)** > > Statehouse wins highlight the Democratic Socialists of America's growing electoral power. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=13)