# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\]

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [January 8, 2018, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/21 "2018-01-08T17:30:52Z")

</div>

I would expect a lot of people to have misunderstood that question. Not sure I’d count it.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [January 8, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/22 "2018-01-08T17:39:50Z")

</div>

> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> The abortion question asked whether they support or oppose _a ban_ on abortion in Pennsylvania. 45% oppose the ban, 38% support it.

Yeah, I misread that.

Here’s the wording of the question, “Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Pennsylvania?” That is… less than ideal.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/23 "2018-01-09T02:29:38Z")

</div>

> [@Lance\_Turbo](#):
>
> We have a [poll](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_PA_18_Special_Election_January_6_2018.pdf). The poll is from Gravis …

We can use the polls from the Alabama special election to help us place this poll into a context.

Polls in the run up were all over the place, with some showing Moore up 9 and some showing Jones up 10, but [according to 538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/) they fell in groups. The polling houses mostly relying on interactive voice responses (“automated scripts”/“robocalls”) showed Moore strongly up and those doing traditional live calling showed it tied to Jones up.

Gravis is an automated script polling approach with some cell phone panel augmentation.

Lots of possible reasons that automated script polling did so poorly in a spacial election context but of the ones he listed the most pertinent might be this:

> [@](#):
>
> … automated and traditional pollsters often take different philosophies toward working with their data. Although they probably wouldn’t put it this way themselves, automated pollsters know that their raw data is somewhat crappy — so they rely more heavily on complicated types of turnout and demographic weighting to make up for it. Automated pollsters are more likely to weight their results by party identification, for instance — by how many Republicans, Democrats and independents are in their sample — whereas traditional pollsters usually don’t do this because partisan identification is a fluid, rather than a fixed, characteristic.

Relying heavily on models of turnout based on partisan identification developed likely from experience in past midterms may not be the best way to go this time.

But it could be and it is the baseline we have. I’m still betting that the race will be within 2% ether way.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [January 19, 2018, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/24 "2018-01-19T05:57:21Z")

</div>

I almost forgot what this thread was about; I asked a mod to add PA March 2018 to the title to clarify.

Anyway, the reason I found it was because I almost started a new thread because [Trump has now started flouncing his way into the race](https://apnews.com/a6ba92615f064a63b742e4c5ce4bc504/Trump-wades-into-PA-race-seen-as-test-of-GOP-strength):

> [@](#):
>
> President Donald Trump waded into a potentially risky race on Thursday, throwing his support behind a Pennsylvania Republican in a contest widely viewed as a test of whether his party can stave off Democratic 2018 gains.
> 
> Speaking at a Pittsburgh-area factory, Trump praised state lawmaker Rick Saccone as “a real friend and a spectacular man.”
> 
> And he told reporters he planned to come back to Pennsylvania — where he won in 2016 — to campaign for Saccone, who is trying to keep a House seat in Republican hands in the first congressional race of the year.
> 
> “I’ll be back for Rick, and we’re going to fill up a stadium and we’re going to do something really special for Rick. I look forward to it,” Trump said.
> 
> The White House had insisted Trump’s visit had nothing to do with politics.

“We’re going to fill up a stadium”, he said. Let’s see if that happens.

Why might the White House insist, despite what Trump says?

> [@](#):
>
> But hours before he left Washington, Trump made clear the visit had a second purpose.
> 
> “We will be going to Pennsylvania today in order to give my total support to RICK SACCONE,” Trump tweeted, adding: “We need more Republicans to continue our already successful agenda!”
> 
> White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders quickly sought to correct the record, insisting in a statement that Trump was going to Pennsylvania to talk about tax cuts, not to campaign.
> 
> A campaign event would require that taxpayers be reimbursed for some of Trump’s travel expenses. Trump’s re-election campaign reimbursed the Treasury $68,000 for political travel last year.

And there’s no subtlety at all to how he thinks people should be grateful for the pittance they’re getting from the GOP tax plan:

> [@](#):
>
> He also praised companies that have been passing their tax savings onto employers, largely in the form of one-time bonuses.
> 
> “Nobody thought that the companies were going to step up and pay all of these great bonuses to people,” he said.

So: a stadium rally is promised; let’s see if that happens and let’s see if Saccone wins with Trump’s help.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [January 19, 2018, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/25 "2018-01-19T12:26:23Z")

</div>

It would be another ominous sign for the GOP if they were to lose this race. They’re not just losing the middle ground; they’re starting to lose districts and races they’ve had in the bag for years.

What’s interesting to me is, if you actually look at what the Republicans have done since Trump got elected, they’re actually delivering the goods for their base of voters. They passed tax cuts for the wealthy. Whether we want to accept it or not, they’ve actually wounded Obamacare pretty badly even without a straight repeal. They’ve put a hard-line conservative on the bench and they’re starting to fill vacancies in the judiciary with other hard-liners. They’re delivering, and yet they’re in obvious peril now. It seems that the most likely explanation is that they’re losing the very culture war that they have started - at least at the moment. More and more people just don’t like Republicans and can’t wait to vote them out.

The period right now reminds me in a lot of ways of the mood before the 1994 Republican landslide. Those who participated in that election just didn’t like the Clintons and what they also perceived as in-your-face liberalism of Democrats, and they made damn sure they got out to make that clear. I sense that this could be going in the other direction.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\
**Post date:** [January 19, 2018, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/26 "2018-01-19T13:06:07Z")

</div>

> [@asahi](#):
>
> They’re delivering, and yet they’re in obvious peril now. It seems that the most likely explanation is that they’re losing the very culture war that they have started - at least at the moment.

Their actual positions are losing long-term, not just at the moment. Their only hope on that front is to shift to the left on social positions, most likely with a new batch of Gen-X and older Millenial candidates who don’t care too much about classic race-baiting and homophobic arguments and stick to the “lol librul tears” and “omg mexican rapist” memes on the social front while delivering low taxes to get the votes.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [January 19, 2018, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/27 "2018-01-19T13:35:32Z")

</div>

> [@Ludovic](#):
>
> Their actual positions are losing long-term, not just at the moment. Their only hope on that front is to shift to the left on social positions, most likely with a new batch of Gen-X and older Millenial candidates who don’t care too much about classic race-baiting and homophobic arguments and stick to the “lol librul tears” and “omg mexican rapist” memes on the social front while delivering low taxes to get the votes.

The feedback loop makes this almost impossible for them. The “we hate everybody who doesn’t look and talk like us” crowd dominates GOP primaries in most of the country. And this November, whatever the size of the Dem wave, the House GOP delegation is going to, more than ever, represent rural areas, smaller cities and towns, and the very outer suburbs/exurbs of the big cities. Same thing is likely to be true of state legislatures around the country, too. You have a party that’s unable to break away from its Trumpian constituency now, and will be even further into that bind ten months from now. They’ll be more overtly racist, xenophobic, hateful and intolerant on account of that, and the negative feedback loop will continue. It’s hard to see where it stops.

I really do think that IF the Dems, once they get power, actually start delivering positive results in a big way, we’ll be more likely to see the Republican party shrink to the point where the Dems can essentially turn themselves into a two-party system, where the party formally or informally breaks into a centrist wing/party and a liberal wing/party, and essentially squeezes the GOP out of the action.

It’s a big IF, though. Short run, they’ll have to get rid of the filibuster so they can accomplish good stuff - a higher minimum wage, a easier-to-use universal health care system, improved labor rights, voting rights, easily affordable college, etc. If they’ve got the guts to do that, they’re gonna be cooking with gas. If they let a GOP Congressional minority handcuff them, then it’ll be back to the same old cycle.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [January 27, 2018, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/28 "2018-01-27T03:11:13Z")

</div>

[A new poll.](http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-18_Survey__Report.pdf)

Top line:

Conor Lamb … 38%  
Rick Saccone … 41  
(VOL) Undecided … 21

Also of relevance:

Conor Lamb: positive 19; negative 10; neutral 16; never heard of 55  
Rick Saccone: positive 28; negative 17; neutral 20; never heard of 35

Methodology traditional live calling: “The survey was conducted January 18-19, 2018 consisting of 384 random district voters using landline and cell phones. The margin of error is + 5 percentage points” Focus seemed more on train service than on the special election.

So a live calling poll now has it a statistical dead heat with more having as yet never heard of Lamb than having any opinion of him at all, positive, negative, or neutral.

Not sure how deep the polling is going to be for this one but so far it is indeed following the Alabama script with robocall strong R and live call essentially tied. Big difference is the lack of recognition of Lamb at all. How will that play out?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [March 5, 2018, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/29 "2018-03-05T08:21:11Z")

</div>

National Journal: [GOP Panic Spreads to Pennsylvania  
Republicans have spent over $9 million in a blue-collar district Trump carried by 20 points. If the GOP can’t win there, they’re in deep trouble.](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/664776?unlock=8AE9X4M288STTFFK)

Some interesting stuff:

> [@](#):
>
> GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines.

And in an interesting twist, a Paul Ryan-aligned PAC is trying to use Conor Lamb’s support for gun rights _against_ him.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [March 5, 2018, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/30 "2018-03-05T11:29:51Z")

</div>

The election is March 13. Trump will be in town supporting Saccone on March 10. It’ll be interesting to see which way that moves the needle - if there’s still support for Trump himself it may help but that doesn’t look like a sure thing at all given previous contests, and having Trump in the local news just before the election will likely drive more people to the polls on both sides. It could ultimately prove a windfall for Lamb, ironically, if the visit gives him more name recognition due to news coverage and gets the anti-Trump voters out in larger numbers.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [March 5, 2018, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/31 "2018-03-05T15:14:26Z")

</div>

New [Emerson poll](https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5d83bc45f4839ff4fb96bb8b8/files/4c844b0f-5529-417e-b125-3e880511a1e3/ECP_PA18_3.5.18_PR.pdf) that was in the field March 1-3.

> [@](#):
>
> A new Emerson College poll finds Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Congressional election  
> with Conor Lamb at 48% and Republican Rick Saccone at 45%, 7% of likely voters are  
> undecided. The data was collected between March 1-3 and used an online and landline sample of  
> 474 likely voters with a CI of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

In reaction to this poll’s release the [related PredictIt market](https://www.predictit.org/Market/3766/Which-party-will-win-the-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Pennsylvania's-18th-district) now has Lamb as the favorite.

I think that is a bit of an overreaction to one poll, but when data is sparse that is bound to happen.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [March 5, 2018, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/32 "2018-03-05T15:22:40Z")

</div>

I’ll also add that ‘Republican Yes’ in the market I linked to above is a crazy bargain at $0.45. With Trump’s PA trip and steel tariff stuff that may play well in the area, I’m pretty sure this market has another flip in it before election day. Mind you, I’m not predicting a Saccone win. I’m just saying ‘Republican Yes’ is likely to swing the other way in the next week or so.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [March 5, 2018, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/33 "2018-03-05T15:24:55Z")

</div>

They may be trying to measure momentum, too.

Still, it’s a good indicator for Lamb eight days prior to E-Day. Are they doing early voting in the district and if so, is there any info on that?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\
**Post date:** [March 5, 2018, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/34 "2018-03-05T15:31:39Z")

</div>

> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#):
>
> They may be trying to measure momentum, too.
> 
> Still, it’s a good indicator for Lamb eight days prior to E-Day. Are they doing early voting in the district and if so, is there any info on that?

Pennsylvania does not have any early voting, I believe.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [March 8, 2018, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/35 "2018-03-08T02:35:46Z")

</div>

No early voting in PA.

It’ll be interesting to see if the recent redistricting impacts the race. It seems like the district became a little more democratic-leaning, but ironically, Lamb is no longer a resident and will have to move if he wants to keep the seat in 2020 (if he wins of course, which is still not a given). Saccone and his right wing attack dogs did a lot of early negative campaigning earlier in the cycle, but the Dems have been pouring money into this race lately.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [March 8, 2018, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/36 "2018-03-08T03:00:45Z")

</div>

[Trump’s tariff tiff plays well](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/07/pa-special-election-trump-tariffs-get-support-from-lamb-and-saccone.html)with many Blue collar voters in that district. Lamb and Saccone _both_ support protectionism in this case but still Trump taking some action that is perceived by the voters there as protecting their jobs may blunt some of the regional working class buyers’ regret on Trump and thus on Saccone who positions himself as strongly attached to him.

If this wasn’t Trump we are talking about I’d think it might be intentional to support Saccone in this race and to be walked back later … but he’s not wily enough for that.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\
**Post date:** [March 8, 2018, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/37 "2018-03-08T16:51:56Z")

</div>

How does PA redistricting play here? I assume that the winner of this special election would have to enter a race in one of the newly a configured districts (assuming SW PA has been redrawn significantly similar to SE and Central PA). I live in central PA and I know redistricting is messing with some R reps’ plans.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\
**Post date:** [March 8, 2018, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/38 "2018-03-08T17:22:40Z")

</div>

> [@pdhenry](#):
>
> How does PA redistricting play here? I assume that the winner of this special election would have to enter a race in one of the newly a configured districts (assuming SW PA has been redrawn significantly similar to SE and Central PA). I live in central PA and I know redistricting is messing with some R reps’ plans.

If Lamb wins, he’ll have to move into the district by November as his current home was re-districted out of it.

Sounds like the GOP is sweating. [Politico: Republicans trash their candidate in Pa. special election](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221)

> [@](#):
>
> as election day grows closer, the national GOP is increasingly pinning the blame on Saccone. In interviews with nearly two dozen administration officials, senior House Republicans and top party strategists, Saccone was nearly universally panned as a deeply underwhelming candidate who leaned excessively on the national party to execute a massive, multimillion-dollar rescue effort. It was complete with visits from the president, vice president and several Cabinet members.
> 
> They describe a candidate who largely ignored pleas to raise the money he needed, who blindsided the White House and the national party with his choice of a political strategist, and whose amateur-style social media feed included low-quality videos of him at a local bar and yukking it up with Santa. To make matters worse, Saccone is up against a Democratic rival the party could hardly have engineered had it tried: Conor Lamb, an Ivy League-educated 33-year-old Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor.
> 
> Lamb has used a nearly $4 million war chest to cast himself as independent of his party, airing slickly produced TV ads underscoring his aversion to Pelosi and his fondness for shooting machine guns. He has a campaign staff of 16 full-time employees, compared with just four for Saccone.
> 
> “Candidate quality matters, and when one candidate outraises the other 5-to-1, that creates real challenges for outside groups trying to win a race,” said Corry Bliss, who oversees the principal House GOP-aligned super PAC, which has conducted an expansive TV and field deployment effort aimed at pushing Saccone over the top.

That being said…

> [@](#):
>
> Many Republicans expect that Saccone will ultimately prevail, thanks largely to the conservative nature of the southwestern Pennsylvania district and the national GOP’s effort.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [March 8, 2018, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/39 "2018-03-08T17:42:04Z")

</div>

Yes, there is an election for the new, non-gerrymandered and thus less GOP-advantaged, district 18 in November. Currently neither Lamb nor Saccone apparently live in what will be PA-18 and whatever the result _each_ may decide to run in _different_ districts in November. Lamb in the newly drawn PA-17, considered more favorable for a Democrat, and Saccone in PA-14, now even more safely R than it had been. Not sure what then happens to Cartwright (D) who represents current PA-17 and where he lives relative to the new lines. Maybe a contested primary on short notice?

If Lamb runs in PA-17 in November anyone with any ideas of who would step up to run in the reconfigured PA-18?  
GOP national has spent a lot for something that really now is only about optics. Even assuming Saccone squeaks by not so sure the optics play well.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\
**Post date:** [March 8, 2018, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/40 "2018-03-08T19:49:41Z")

</div>

For what it’s worth I believe there is no requirement for a Congressman to live in the district he represents, only within that state.

> **[Why Don't Congressional Candidates Have To Live In The Districts They Seek To...](https://www.knkx.org/post/why-dont-congressional-candidates-have-live-districts-they-seek-represent)**
>
> To run for office, you have to meet certain criteria. If you're a candidate for the United States House of Representatives, you have to be at least 25…

> [@](#):
>
> University of Washington political science professor George Lovell says when it comes to residency for congressional candidates, there is just one requirement.
> 
> “The U.S. Constitution just requires that the person be a resident of the state,” Lovell said.
> 
> Lovell says there have been efforts to add requirements over the years, but the courts have been resistant to “state efforts to attach additional qualifications.”
> 
> Lovell says it means, someone could live in Spokane and represent a congressional district on the western side of Washington.

[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=1)

[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=3)
