# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/101 "2018-03-14T02:26:19Z")
13 Precincts to go and Lamb leads by 585 votes. Tight. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/102 "2018-03-14T02:27:40Z")
Lamb lead down to 585 with 98% in. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/103 "2018-03-14T02:28:57Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > At what point is a recount possible/mandated? > > edit - Looks like .5% [Recount laws in Pennsylvania - Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Pennsylvania) Actually, apparently, I’m wrong: > [@](#): > > From CNN’s Adam Levy and Gary Tuchman > > Pennsylvania Secretary of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells us because this is a district race and not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here. > > Petitions are allowed, which require three voters in each precinct to make. > > They would have five days after the county completes its computation. [From CNN.](http://cnn.it/2Iogpdd) ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/104 "2018-03-14T02:33:53Z")
CNN has Lamb up by 700. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/105 "2018-03-14T02:35:11Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > CNN has Lamb up by 700. With 12 precincts to go, according to politico ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/106 "2018-03-14T02:38:39Z")
Cook Report’s Dave wasserman is saying absentee ballots, yet uncounted, should give lamb a good boost. Most are from Allegheny County. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/107 "2018-03-14T02:39:27Z")
I’m sure this has been posted (I haven’t been following this thread very close), but Trump won this district by 20 points, and the Republicans had to outspend the Dems 2:1 just to keep it close? Yikes. I hope this bodes well for November. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/108 "2018-03-14T02:40:00Z")
For the sake of argument assume Lamb wins very narrowly. I’m guessing GOP powers advise strongly against asking for a recount. It would only prolong keeping the roughly 20 point shift as a focus longer for no real gain. Focus on November. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/109 "2018-03-14T02:50:40Z")
Lamb up by 755 according to CNN. I guess I’ll have to wait till tomorrow to find out, since I’m going to bed. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/110 "2018-03-14T02:54:51Z")
[Here’s a twitter thread from a PA](https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/973737779996844032) lawyer with PA election experience. Here’s one salient bit: > [@](#): > > 1. Again, to stress: this isn’t the official count. This is an informal count. Absentees/provisionals have not been counted yet. Wait until Friday on the former; on the latter voters have a week to verify their eligibility still. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/111 "2018-03-14T02:54:53Z")
Saccone just picked up 660 votes in Washington County, bringing Lamb’s lead down to 95 votes. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/112 "2018-03-14T02:56:32Z")
NY Times = “Conor Lamb leads by 0.0 percentage points, or 95 votes, over Rick Saccone with 99 percent of precincts fully reporting.” ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/113 "2018-03-14T02:57:19Z")
99.7% reporting: Lamb: 109,945 votes Saccone: 109,850 votes Yeah, I think they need to count the absentee, judge the provisionals, and wait for the overseas votes to come in. ---
**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/114 "2018-03-14T02:59:33Z")
The Allegheny County absentees should be counted by midnight and are expected to go heavily for Lamb. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/115 "2018-03-14T02:59:55Z")
That’s one tight race! Which is a damn shame, considering. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/116 "2018-03-14T03:05:19Z")
> [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > That’s one tight race! Which is a damn shame, considering. Considering what? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/117 "2018-03-14T03:06:56Z")
> [@](#): > > Igor Bobic > Allegheny County absentee ballots, via CNN: > Lamb - 1,930 > Saccone - 1,178 [Twitter](https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/973756530884562944) ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/118 "2018-03-14T03:07:06Z")
Right now (11:06 Eastern) It’s Lamb 111,875 to Saccone 111,028 – a gain from a few minutes before. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/119 "2018-03-14T03:17:39Z")
With .3% of the vote to go, I don’t think Saccone can catch up. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/120 "2018-03-14T03:26:14Z")
The CNN talking heads are saying Saccone would need about 60 percent of the outstanding absentee ballots to pull out a win – and in his most favorable counties with already counted votes he’s only ahead by about 53 percent. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=7)