# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![pohjonen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pohjonen/32/423_2.png) [@pohjonen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pohjonen)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/121 "2018-03-14T03:56:30Z")
Saccone was just opining that his opponents hate Trump, they hate America, and by God, they even hate God. Just because I was getting ready to put on my black robe and dance around my pentagram. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/122 "2018-03-14T03:57:29Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Considering what? Considering that Saccone is a psychopath. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/123 "2018-03-14T03:59:42Z")
[Politico.com](http://Politico.com) shows all precincts in and lamb up by 0.2. 113,211 - 112,532. Has anyone called it yet (I’m not by a tv) Or will they wait on the provisionals to call it when it’s so close? ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/124 "2018-03-14T04:02:42Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > [Politico.com](http://Politico.com) shows all precincts in and lamb up by 0.2. > > 113,211 - 112,532. Has anyone called it yet (I’m not by a tv) > > Or will they wait on the provisionals to call it when it’s so close? The New York _Times_ says: > [@](#): > > Conor Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 579 votes, over Rick Saccone with 100 percent of precincts fully reporting. This is likely to shift further to Lamb as the absentee ballots get counted. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/125 "2018-03-14T04:02:58Z")
I don’t think anyone has called it yet\*. > [@](#): > > Saccone tells supporters “we’re not giving up” tonight > GOP candidate Rick Saccone, addressing supporters with the race still too close to call, said “We are still fighting the fight. It’s not over yet." > He told them, “We’re not giving up” tonight. > Campaign consultant Bob Branstetter told CNN’s Alexander Marquardt they won’t concede tonight. > He said even if Washington County absentees come in, plus other areas, there are still provisional ballots and military absentees. He said they are talking with legal counsel and weighing options, including petitions to recount. [From CNN.](https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/pennsylvania-election-latest/index.html) Fair odds of him arranging a recount, I’d guess. \*Apparently the DCCC has called it for Lamb, and are being roundly mocked for doing so. [Yep, they did.](http://thehill.com/homenews/house/378293-dccc-declares-victory-in-pennsylvania-special-election-despite-race-being-too) ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/126 "2018-03-14T04:18:35Z")
Some scratch-pad figuring. The absentee ballots from Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland counties have yet to be counted. Per CNN, there’s 3206 absentee ballots all up. Assuming they break the same as the average in those three counties thus far\*, that’ll add 1796 votes for Saccone, and 1410 for Lamb. That would put the vote totals at 114,328 for Saccone, and 114,521 for Lamb, giving the win to Lamb by 193 votes. That said, I gather absentee votes tend to break left; I’m happy to be corrected if that’s not the case. \*56% Saccone, 44% Lamb, in those three counties. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/127 "2018-03-14T04:30:35Z")
From the live blog at DailyKos: > **[Daily Kos Elections PA-18 special election liveblog thread #12](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/13/1748846/-Daily-Kos-Elections-PA-18-special-election-liveblog-thread-12)** > > Polls closed at 8 PM ET in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, where Republican Rick Saccone faces Democrat Conor Lamb in a special election for the final months of former Republican Rep. ... > [@](#): > > Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 · 9:07:23 PM MST · David Nir > > A few moments ago, Westmoreland County tallied its two remaining precincts, as well as its absentee ballots, shrinking Lamb’s lead from 847 votes to 579 votes. However, this was decidedly bad news for Saccone: There are now just 1,400 absentee ballots left to count (in Green and Washington Counties), per CNN, and he’d have to win them by a 70-30 margin. That’s almost impossible, seeing as Saccone won those two counties on Election Day by just a 54-46 spread. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/128 "2018-03-14T08:40:50Z")
Lamb gave a victory speech somewhere around 12:45am EDT. Good for him! Nothing new in the count overnight - still a 579 vote lead with less than 1400 absentee ballots to be counted. If there were exactly 1400 absentee ballots out there, Saccone would have to win those by 990-410 to overcome Lamb’s 579-vote margin. So assuming no tabulation errors, it’s very very unlikely that Saccone can catch up. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/129 "2018-03-14T10:39:40Z")
Unlikely, but not impossible. Can Saccone pay for a recount if he wants to? Maybe? ---
**Author:** ![Mithras](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f04885/32.png) [@Mithras](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mithras)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/130 "2018-03-14T10:43:41Z")
The Washington County absentee votes are in and increased Lamb’s lead to 641. A recount in PA is a pretty big long-shot. Aside from the absentee votes, we use machines with no paper trail. I’d imagine you’re mostly making sure you didn’t miss a machine in the count. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/131 "2018-03-14T11:00:44Z")
[This](https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone/index.html) is an interesting bit. > [@](#): > > Earlier in the evening, before it became clear the results would be so close, several Republican officials told CNN they were expecting Saccone to lose. Party officials were placing the blame squarely on Saccone’s campaign but also on Trump’s Saturday rally for the candidate, which some Republicans believe helped drive up Democratic turnout. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/132 "2018-03-14T11:30:56Z")
Lamb 113,720 Saccone 113,079 Absentee ballots still to be counted (this was from CNN, \*\*Mithras \*\* has newer info) Brian ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/133 "2018-03-14T11:39:21Z")
I can see trump’s next tweet. _Knew that loser would lose. Total loser. He should have listened to me when I offered to help. Sad._ (Assuming of course, the Saccone takes 2nd place.) ---
**Author:** ![DragonAsh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/db5fbb/32.png) [@DragonAsh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DragonAsh)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/134 "2018-03-14T11:55:46Z")
Am I correct in assuming that Trump’s sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA? ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/135 "2018-03-14T12:08:02Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Am I correct in assuming that Trump’s sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA? I was thinking that, but I think once again his lack of awareness hurt his cause again, as it forced the rest of the GOP as a unified entity to come out on the record against doing anything to help steel. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/136 "2018-03-14T12:12:32Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Am I correct in assuming that Trump’s sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA? Clearly the timing of the tariff announcement was no coincidence. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/137 "2018-03-14T12:15:08Z")
Can’t help but wonder what bullshit the GOP is going to come up with to steal this one like they did with that bullshit in Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/138 "2018-03-14T12:16:17Z")
We stayed up past our bedtimes following the election results. Hoping for a Lambslide, but a win is a win. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/139 "2018-03-14T12:24:57Z")
I know it’s petty, but I so want Lamb to thank Donald Trump for his victory. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/140 "2018-03-14T12:29:58Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Unlikely, but not impossible. Can Saccone pay for a recount if he wants to? Maybe? Is there really any point to a recount for a seat that won’t exist in the fall elections, and where the result won’t affect the standings in the current House? Regardless who wins this, the GOP has a firm majority in the House until next January. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=8)