# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/141 "2018-03-14T12:33:27Z")
The point would be “The Republican won, in spite of all the Evil Dems efforts!”. That’s all, but that’s enough. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/142 "2018-03-14T12:34:33Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Am I correct in assuming that Trump’s sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA? All of his actions are impulsive, so who knows, but the timing does match. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/143 "2018-03-14T12:45:36Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > Lamb 113,720 > Saccone 113,079 > > Absentee ballots still to be counted > (this was from CNN, \*\*Mithras \*\* has newer info) > > Brian **Mithras** gave a margin of 641, same as you, so I assume same info. If Alleghany, Westmoreland, and Washington county absentee ballots have all been counted, that just leaves Greene, which IIRC is by far the smallest of the four counties in terms of population in PA-18 as presently constituted. Can’t see that changing the outcome dramatically. So the answer to the question in the thread title is: YES!!! ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/144 "2018-03-14T12:56:46Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > I was thinking that, but I think once again his lack of awareness hurt his cause again, as it forced the rest of the GOP as a unified entity to come out on the record against doing anything to help steel. Donald Trump doesn’t have the Midas touch, he has the Mierdas touch. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/145 "2018-03-14T12:58:49Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Is there really any point to a recount for a seat that won’t exist in the fall elections, and where the result won’t affect the standings in the current House? Regardless who wins this, the GOP has a firm majority in the House until next January. A win here is huge for Democrats. Not only because it would energize the base, but because it will encourage more challengers in previously safe GOP districts. More challenges means more news about the ‘Blue Wave.’ It means the GOP has to spread its money around even more. It makes the big GOP donors more wary. And then there’s all the ‘Trump referendum’ news that goes with it, not to mention the wound to Trump’s pride since he went out there and gave his personal endorsement. Honestly, Conor Lamb’s actual physical presence in DC is almost ancillary to the benefits of his win. If Conor Lamb loses, even by .01%, the Dems have to run with “hey, we **almost** pulled it off and if you look at the statistical breakdown compared to the 2016 election it’s still a really meaningful outcome!” That doesn’t sell quite as well. ---
**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/146 "2018-03-14T13:29:47Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > **Mithras** gave a margin of 641, same as you, so I assume same info. > > If Alleghany, Westmoreland, and Washington county absentee ballots have all been counted, that just leaves Greene, which IIRC is by far the smallest of the four counties in terms of population in PA-18 as presently constituted. Can’t see that changing the outcome dramatically… Last night MSNBC was saying that there were only about 200 absentee ballots in Greene County. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/147 "2018-03-14T13:33:15Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > A win here is huge for Democrats. Not only because it would energize the base, but because it will encourage more challengers in previously safe GOP districts. More challenges means more news about the ‘Blue Wave.’ It means the GOP has to spread its money around even more. It makes the big GOP donors more wary. And then there’s all the ‘Trump referendum’ news that goes with it, not to mention the wound to Trump’s pride since he went out there and gave his personal endorsement. Not to mention encouraging GOP reps facing unexpectedly tough races to decide that they’re rather spend more time with their families. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/148 "2018-03-14T13:35:51Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [This](https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone/index.html) is an interesting bit. > [@](#): > > Earlier in the evening, before it became clear the results would be so close, several Republican officials told CNN they were expecting Saccone to lose. Party officials were placing the blame squarely on Saccone’s campaign but also on Trump’s Saturday rally for the candidate, which some Republicans believe helped drive up Democratic turnout. Given how slim the final margin turned out to be, this bit of defeatism and blame-gaming might just have been enough to tip the scales. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/149 "2018-03-14T13:52:20Z")
I love the latest GOP spin: “Well, Lamb is basically a Republican anyway, so…” ¯\_(ツ)\_/¯ ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/150 "2018-03-14T14:01:35Z")
I’m guessing the Republicans are huddling this morning trying to figure out how to turn this around. The conversation is probably like: “OK guys: Tariffs on steel and aluminum didn’t do it. Exploding our debt with the tax giveaway didn’t do it. What else can we try to get people to like us? Free blowjobs outside the polls?” ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/151 "2018-03-14T14:02:04Z")
All the more remarkable, considering the winner hates America, the president and God. Also, baseball, apple pie and your mom. And puppies! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/152 "2018-03-14T14:02:09Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I love the latest GOP spin: “Well, Lamb is basically a Republican anyway, so…” > > ¯\_(ツ)\_/¯ A very pro-union Republican, too! How many of them hold elected office these days? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/153 "2018-03-14T14:05:05Z")
Is there a chance the House Republicans refuse to accept the result and ask for recount after recount until they get a “favorable” one? Hey, it worked for the Democrats in, what was it, 1984? If you ask me, the Republicans should just eat this loss, rather than drag it out and most likely make things worse - one vote in the House is not going to matter, and it’s too close to the next election anyway. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/154 "2018-03-14T14:14:44Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > A very pro-union Republican, too! How many of them hold elected office these days? 😃 To quote Jon Favreau: Conor Lamb campaigned: 1. For universal health care 2. Against Trump’s tax cut 3. For expanded background checks 4. For stronger unions 5. Against cuts to Social Security 6. For a woman’s right to choose 7. For medical marijuana “Conservative Democrat.” Ok. Cool. [https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/973919365119737858?s=19](https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/973919365119737858?s=19) ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/155 "2018-03-14T14:18:03Z")
Toss in a passion for Universal Basic Income and we’re staring at my youngest - and socialist - brother. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/156 "2018-03-14T14:46:45Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > I’m guessing the Republicans are huddling this morning trying to figure out how to turn this around. The conversation is probably like: > > “OK guys: Tariffs on steel and aluminum didn’t do it. Exploding our debt with the tax giveaway didn’t do it. What else can we try to get people to like us? Free blowjobs outside the polls?” Probably not the best time for Republicans to be discussing payments to prostitutes. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/157 "2018-03-14T14:48:05Z")
I just read it as they’d all have to take their turn in the barrel. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/158 "2018-03-14T15:13:13Z")
> [@DragonAsh](#): > > Am I correct in assuming that Trump’s sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA? Yup. Check out this PDF map of PA steel facilities - PA18 is in that cluster to the SW. [https://www.steel.org/~/media/Files/AISI/Public%20Policy/Member%20Map/2016/Pennsylvania.pdf?la=en](https://www.steel.org/~/media/Files/AISI/Public%20Policy/Member%20Map/2016/Pennsylvania.pdf?la=en) ---
**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/159 "2018-03-14T15:24:12Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Yup. Check out this PDF map of PA steel facilities - PA18 is in that cluster to the SW. > > [https://www.steel.org/~/media/Files/AISI/Public%20Policy/Member%20Map/2016/Pennsylvania.pdf?la=en](https://www.steel.org/~/media/Files/AISI/Public%20Policy/Member%20Map/2016/Pennsylvania.pdf?la=en) The big cluster is in PA14 (i.e., Pittsburgh proper). There’s only a couple of mills in the 18th. (I mean, the districts are on the map…) ETA: This wouldn’t sufficient to flip PA14 to Red. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/160 "2018-03-14T15:26:14Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > I’m guessing the Republicans are huddling this morning trying to figure out how to turn this around. The conversation is probably like: > > “OK guys: Tariffs on steel and aluminum didn’t do it. Exploding our debt with the tax giveaway didn’t do it. What else can we try to get people to like us? Free blowjobs outside the polls?” Well, March 14 _is_ National Steak and Blowjob Day. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=9)