# "Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?" \[In Pennsylvania, March, '18\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 30, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557 "2017-12-30T03:56:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/161 "2018-03-14T15:33:49Z")
Maybe the Pubs will figure out that a thump rally right before voting day is no longer a sure thing. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/162 "2018-03-14T15:35:05Z")
[The Washington _Post_ has a good article on this race](https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/conor-lamb-pennsylvania-special-election-rick-saccone/2018/03/14/9583f1f0-273e-11e8-b79d-f3d931db7f68_story.html?utm_term=.b1746074fbda): > [@](#): > > “We spent an awful lot of money,” said one Republican strategist involved in the race, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s difficult to spin this one.” Well, let’s see how they’ll try: > [@](#): > > Corry Bliss, the executive director of CLF, which paid for door knockers starting in the first week of January, put the blame squarely on Saccone’s shoulders. > > Bliss called Saccone, a four-term state legislator with a long military and academic résumé, “a joke.” Yep. Loser Saccone lost to Lamb. SAD! And, of course, there’s the usual chuntering: > [@](#): > > “We are waiting for provisional ballots to be counted. We are not ruling out a recount,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. A person familiar with the process said party officials were looking at potential irregularities and legal action they could take. Finally, the voter interviews, which don’t say a whole lot new: > [@](#): > > Several voters who said they were Republicans cast their ballots for Lamb — and against the president. > > After casting her vote in Mt. Lebanon, a suburb of Pittsburgh, dental hygienist Janet Dellana said she had been outraged to see Trump call for arming teachers instead of limiting access to semiautomatic weapons after the deadly school shooting in Florida. > > “He flip-flops on everything, but in the end, he caters to the extreme right,” said Dellana, 64. “I am a registered Republican, but as this party continues to cater to the extreme right, they push me left.” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/163 "2018-03-14T15:37:50Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > Well, March 14 _is_ National Steak and Blowjob Day. When come back, bring pi. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/164 "2018-03-14T15:40:56Z")
> [@pdhenry](#): > > The big cluster is in PA14 (i.e., Pittsburgh proper). There’s only a couple of mills in the 18th. > > (I mean, the districts are on the map…) > > ETA: This wouldn’t sufficient to flip PA14 to Red. I didn’t state it was an effective strategy. Hell, Trump could have watched _All the Right Moves_ and decided he was going to save the steel mill in the movie by raising tariffs. With this guy, that’s only slightly less plausible than “reasoned political strategy”. Which isn’t plausible at all, so there we have it. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/165 "2018-03-14T15:46:53Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Maybe the Pubs will figure out that a thump rally right before voting day is no longer a sure thing. I don’t think most of us ever thought it was “a sure thing”. Where did you get the impression we did? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/166 "2018-03-14T16:12:30Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > …Finally, the voter interviews, which don’t say a whole lot new: > > > [@](#): > > > > Several voters who said they were Republicans cast their ballots for Lamb — and against the president. > > > > After casting her vote in Mt. Lebanon, a suburb of Pittsburgh, dental hygienist Janet Dellana said she had been outraged to see Trump call for arming teachers instead of limiting access to semiautomatic weapons after the deadly school shooting in Florida. > > > > “He flip-flops on everything, but in the end, he caters to the extreme right,” said Dellana, 64. “I am a registered Republican, but as this party continues to cater to the extreme right, they push me left.” I see this and first thought is “great” – but then, I think, “Well, why didn’t you vote for Hillary, then??! Arrgh!” ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/167 "2018-03-14T16:30:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think most of us ever thought it was “a sure thing”. Where did you get the impression we did? [http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/20180310\_ap\_3c99f0c0cbc248dbac2c795890caf84c.html](http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/20180310_ap_3c99f0c0cbc248dbac2c795890caf84c.html) > [@](#): > > “The president’s support is key to attaining victory,” Saccone told rally attendees about 45 minutes before Trump took the stage. “There’s no one that I would rather have in my corner that President Trump. Are you with me on that?” And of course it would had been more likely to be if Trump had bothered to just help a candidate and not to just continue telling Philadelphia and the rest of America that we need to divide America more. > **[The most outrageous lines from President Trump's Pennsylvania speech](https://www.phillytrib.com/commentary/the-most-outrageous-lines-from-president-trump-s-pennsylvania-speech/article_6520bbf8-a3a2-562c-ba99-991e2fe5577a.html)** > > (CNN) -- President Donald Trump traveled to western Pennsylvania Saturday night on a rescue mission: State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) is fighting for his political life in a House special > [@](#): > > (CNN) – President Donald Trump traveled to western Pennsylvania Saturday night on a rescue mission: State Rep. Rick Saccone (R) is fighting for his political life in a House special election on Tuesday and the President’s visit was aimed at rallying the GOP base in a district he won by 20 points in 2016. > > Trump’s speech — largely unscripted – ranged (and raged) for more than an hour, and barely mentioned Saccone until the end when Trump handed Saccone the mic and allowed him to say a few words. > > It felt more like a therapy session – with Trump venting and attacking his enemies – than a political rally. I went through the entire transcript and pulled out the most memorable lines. They’re below. [editorial notes from the Philadelphia Tribune] > [@](#): > > 1. “I was watching, during the campaign, and Hillary was sitting right there, and Pocahontas was up, she was so angry, you know, I think she’s losing the audience.” > > “Pocahontas” is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts). As for the rest: ???. > > 1. “I would love to beat Oprah. I know her weakness.” > > Is this like an Achilles heel type situation? Or is Trump issuing some sort of vague threat to Oprah? > > 1. “Women, women, we love you, we love you.” > > Offered without comment. > [@](#): > > 1. “And Maxine Waters, a very low IQ individual.” > > Not for nothing: Waters is an African-American woman. And, yes, Trump is well aware of that fact. > > 1. “She’s a low IQ individual. She can’t help it.” > > So: Trump is suggesting that the reason Waters criticizes him is because she is dumb and can’t help herself. Yes, that’s it. > [@](#): > > 1. “I don’t know that the United States frankly is ready for it. They should be ready for it.” > > The “it” Trump is talking about here is giving convicted drug dealers the death penalty, which he says is how China solved its opium problem. > > 1. “I never did polling on that. I don’t know if that’s popular. I don’t know if that’s unpopular.” > > This is a real evergreen quote for Trump. > > 1. “We can’t just keep setting up blue ribbon committees with your wife and your wife and your husband, and they meet and they have a meal and they talk.” > > Trump JUST praised Melania for serving on a blue ribbon commission on the opioid problem. Now he is saying these blue ribbon commissions are useless. Good times! > > 1. “When your daughter walks home. And they don’t use guns. You never saw guns. The NRA happens to be very good people, by the way.” > > Non sequitur: “A conclusion or statement that does not logically follow from the previous argument or statement.” > > 1. “Hillary wouldn’t have liberated those towns.” > > The 2016 election ended 487 days ago. > > 1. “So we are doing a great, great job.” > > [Pats self on back repeatedly] > [@](#): > > 1. “Remember they said 270, you cannot – remember the famous 270? He cannot win the election because he cannot get above 270.” > > See #51. > > 1. “The red board is all red. It is like red. Man, that board was red.” > > The reddest. > > 1. “One of the greatest nights in the history of television in terms of people watching.” > > This is Trump talking about election night 2016. And the way he describe it as a great night of television. Which tells you a lot. Hell, it tells you everything. > > 1. “The bad news is they want to take it away from us.” > > “They.” ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/168 "2018-03-14T16:35:03Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think most of us ever thought it was “a sure thing”. Where did you get the impression we did? Do you think the speech helped or harmed Saccone? ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/169 "2018-03-14T16:53:35Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think most of us ever thought it was “a sure thing”. Where did you get the impression we did? Who is the _“we”_ you speak of here? ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/170 "2018-03-14T17:12:39Z")
> [@](#): > > Conor Lamb campaigned: > > 1. For universal health care > 2. Against Trump’s tax cut > 3. For expanded background checks > 4. For stronger unions > 5. Against cuts to Social Security > 6. For a woman’s right to choose > 7. For medical marijuana Only items 1, 4, and 5 are on the “Priorities” section of his website: [https://conorlamb.com/priorities/](https://conorlamb.com/priorities/) Notable absent is any mention of gun control, considering the events of the past month. But there is a section on expanding natural gas production. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/171 "2018-03-14T17:13:53Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > Only items 1 and 4 are on the “Priorities” section of his website: > > [https://conorlamb.com/priorities/](https://conorlamb.com/priorities/) > > Notable absent is any mention of gun control, considering the events of the past month. But there is a section on expanding natural gas production. As I understand it, he’s not in favor of “gun control.” That’s fine with me. Big tent, and all that. That hardly makes him a Republican. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/172 "2018-03-14T17:14:55Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > Only items 1, 4, and 5 are on the “Priorities” section of his website That’s still more than enough. > [@](#): > > Notable absent is any mention of gun control, considering the events of the past month. But there is a section on expanding natural gas production. In that district, it would be fatal to claim any other position, so I’d give him a pass. Let’s see what he _does_. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/173 "2018-03-14T17:18:23Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > Only items 1, 4, and 5 are on the “Priorities” section of his website: > > [https://conorlamb.com/priorities/](https://conorlamb.com/priorities/) > > Notable absent is any mention of gun control, considering the events of the past month. But there is a section on expanding natural gas production. [David Axelrod:](https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/973788781617799173) “Little-noted was that @ConorLambPA closed his campaign with an ad in SUPPORT of strengthened gun background checks.” ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/174 "2018-03-14T17:22:51Z")
I guess we can close this thread, as the answer is [officially yes](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/14/17109448/pennsylvania-special-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/175 "2018-03-14T17:24:44Z")
Has Saccone conceded? ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/176 "2018-03-14T17:30:42Z")
Has Roy Moore conceded? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/177 "2018-03-14T17:36:56Z")
Jones was certified and sworn in. I mean is there or is there not a possibility of Saccone calling for a recount, however improbable an overturn might be? ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/178 "2018-03-14T18:01:22Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Jones was certified and sworn in. I mean is there or is there not a possibility of Saccone calling for a recount, however improbable an overturn might be? It’s possible, so the question is, who’s going to listen to him? [For what it’s worth, Politico has this on its page now](https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/pennsylvania/special-election/mar-13/): > [@](#): > > At 11:24 p.m. EDT, the Associated Press decided the race was too close to call. As of 11:50 a.m., Lamb led by 627 votes with all absentee votes counted. If Lamb’s up by 627 with all the absentee ballots counted, it doesn’t look like Saccone has much to argue. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/179 "2018-03-14T18:01:32Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I mean is there or is there not a possibility of Saccone calling for a recount, however improbable an overturn might be? There is, > [@galen\_ubal](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > From CNN’s Adam Levy and Gary Tuchman > > > > Pennsylvania Secretary of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells us because this is a district race and not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here. > > > > Petitions are allowed, which require three voters in each precinct to make. > > > > They would have five days after the county completes its computation. > > [From CNN.](http://cnn.it/2Iogpdd) but it calls for a lot of legwork. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2018, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557/180 "2018-03-14T18:20:11Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think most of us ever thought it was “a sure thing”. Where did you get the impression we did? Isn’t it a pretty sure thing when your opponent hates America and God? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-democrats-flip-a-house-seat-in-a-district-trump-won-in-pennsylvania-march-18/805557.md?page=10)