# Can Donald Trump Actually Win The White House? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 21, 2015, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325 "2015-10-21T04:46:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/1 "2015-10-21T04:46:01Z")
I’m starting to think I was wrong a while back when I posted an electoral college projection with Hillary having over 400 EVs vs Trump. Trump is starting to look like teflon. I thought he’d potentially get thru the GOP primaries, but I think its becoming clear he by far and away is the most likely person to get the nomination. Jeb is the weakest Republican who Hillary will landslide as bad as Bill did Pappy Bush (and without Perot to weaken the blow Bush would take). But Trump is media savvy as hell. He seems to always know what to do and what to say, when to say it. Sure, he’ll get smoked amongst Latinos, but how about whites? Mitt Romney won whites 60-40 in 2012. If Trump can win whites 65-35 and get 15% of the black vote (vs. a Democrat’s 85%, which I think could be done with a Black Republican with experience on the ticket), we could have President Trump (!!!). Southern whites seem to be one of his best sets, whereas Hillary could’ve seriously challenged Cruz or Jeb! amongst them. Of course, a lot still depends on how popular the incumbent WH party is. The scenario above assumes the approval rating tossup range of 45-49%. If Obama is ahead of 50%, then it would take a Monicaesque scandal (which had BC having high job approvals but low as hell favorable), and if Obama is below 40% (where Jimmy Carter and Bush I were in 1980 and 1992, W. in 2008), then Trump wins hand down. Your take. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/2 "2015-10-21T05:05:19Z")
His odds are in the 4-8% range. Trump has [six stages](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/) to clear. He’s has cleared stage 1, the free for all stage. He has not cleared Stage 2, heightened scrutiny. Because it’s still very early. Stage 3 is Iowa and New Hampshire. Stage 4 is winnowing. Some candidates drop out. Trump will have difficulty then, since he has strong unfavorables. As more candidates drop, support will flow to others. But… Trumps favorability polling has been improving. And in my thread on [outsiders](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=770735), 65% of Republican support is flowing to candidates, like Trump, whose prime objective is neither winning the Presidency (this cycle or the next) or building a political organization. So a lot is in flux. His probabilities are therefore closer to 8 than 4, maybe as high as 12%. PredictIt puts Trump at 25%. Wow. I think that’s way too high. 6 stages, from early August.: [http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/) Update, as of today: > **[Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/)** > > You know who we haven’t talked about in a while? Donald Trump. Trump last appeared in a FiveThirtyEight headline on Oct. 2! That cannot stand. So for this week’… ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/3 "2015-10-21T05:24:42Z")
I still think that Trump will not win the White House, as pointed the heightened scrutiny has not really appeared in earnest and Trump is a target rich environment. However I’m beginning to think that the possibility of a brokered republican convention has increased, it could be because there are not enough delegates for Trump to win; or if he does get enough delegates, the Republican convention is bound to be a **broken** one. So off the wall and with so much conflict in the open that it will make the “Culture War” Republican convention of the 90’s look like a tea party… the one that children used to have, not the revolting one of today. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/4 "2015-10-21T06:47:58Z")
Ok, but where will Trump throw his support? His opponents are all losers! ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/5 "2015-10-21T07:24:31Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > But… Trumps favorability polling has been improving. Is it though? The [trendline](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating) is pretty static for the last two months. I like the description on the 538 update of his favorability - volatile. Across September and October he’s spent a lot of time away from the trendline itself. it’s a lot of noise to sort out signal from. There’s a lot of noise just comparing polls that close on or close to the same day. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/6 "2015-10-21T07:33:23Z")
He can. I don’t think he WILL, but he CAN. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/7 "2015-10-21T07:51:01Z")
Amazing as it may seem, Trump may have enough support to win the Nomination. This is not unprecedented: Berlusconi won Italy, Shinawatra Thailand. But the Big Money in the U.S. will happily spend a Billion dollars or three to stop Trump. Even if he has the raw support for the nomination, he won’t get it. And even if he did get the nomination, he’d lose in a landslide in November. Fools and drunkards don’t make up a majority of the whole electorate, do they? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/8 "2015-10-21T08:24:05Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > And even if he did get the nomination, he’d lose in a landslide in November. Fools and drunkards don’t make up a majority of the whole electorate, do they? :dubious: They did vote for George W. Bush twice, you know. (yes he didn’t win a relative majority of absolute majority (other names for plurality and \>50%, respectively) in 2000) but did in 2004. He got enough to go to the WH in 2000 anyway). ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 8:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/9 "2015-10-21T08:31:17Z")
Many found GWB much more likeable than they find Trump. And Dubya was backed by the Big Money and Dirty Tricksters of the Republican Party. Whatever Trump’s faults, I don’t see him as in league with the petro-imperialist cabal, nor any sort of dirty trickster on par with Cheney-Rove. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/10 "2015-10-21T08:38:31Z")
Betfair currently has Trump at a 6.45% or 6.67% implied chance depending on whether you want to back or lay him. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/11 "2015-10-21T09:01:58Z")
No, he can’t. No Republican can, ever again. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/12 "2015-10-21T09:49:11Z")
Trump is very unlikely to win the White House, but it’s no longer impossible. If the polls show you can win, that means you can win, and right now the polls say that Trump is capable of winning, at least against Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 10:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/13 "2015-10-21T10:02:02Z")
> [@](#): > > Can Donald Trump Actually Win The White House? No. SATSQ. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/14 "2015-10-21T10:49:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Trump is very unlikely to win the White House, but it’s no longer impossible. If the polls show you can win, that means you can win, and right now the polls say that Trump is capable of winning, at least against Clinton. And Bernie Sanders. If Joe Biden actually jumps in, and thus no longer gets a sympathetic media spotlight, Trump will be competitive with him too. Hell, Biden is already starting to put his own [foot in his mouth](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/joe-biden-claims-privately-supported-bin-laden-raid/story?id=34598670) about the OBL raid. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/15 "2015-10-21T10:51:24Z")
Biden, like Trump, is teflon because people expect him to say outrageous things. I do agree that he’ll see his poll standing fall a little due to less media sympathy, but I do think he’s easily the most electable Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/16 "2015-10-21T11:39:44Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > No, he can’t. > > No Republican can, ever again. Never think never. The political winds can, and do, change. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/17 "2015-10-21T11:54:48Z")
[Here’s how](http://www.270towin.com/maps/qy71N) the map looks if Trump is the nominee. He has no chance whatsoever. Hillary would swallow him up and spit out his bones much like a snake handling a desert rat. The Republicans are in fear of him getting the nomination and are going to pull every dirty trick in the book to deny it to him. Other Republicans have only marginally better chances but Trump would turn the race into a blue landslide tsunami earthquake nuclear bomb killer asteroid election. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/18 "2015-10-21T12:04:24Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Trump would turn the race into a blue landslide tsunami earthquake nuclear bomb killer asteroid election. You left out zombie apocalypse. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/19 "2015-10-21T12:17:20Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > You left out zombie apocalypse. Dang too late to edit. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/20 "2015-10-21T14:02:16Z")
> [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > Betfair currently has Trump at a 6.45% or 6.67% implied chance depending on whether you want to back or lay him. How does that work? If I lay $1,350 to win $100 do I have to leave $1,350 deposited for the next 13 months, not earning any interest? Hardly worth it even if I’m certain Trump’s chance is no more than 2% or so. (I suppose if I lay multiple candidates, I only need deposit for the worst case, right?) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325.md?page=2)