# Can Donald Trump Actually Win The White House? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 21, 2015, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325 "2015-10-21T04:46:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/41 "2015-10-22T11:59:53Z")
I dont know if he will win the white house but I do feel he could win the republican primary simply because the others are not doing so well. Now a Trump-Fiorina, or even Fiorina/Trump, the man/woman business CEO dream team, that might have a shot. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/42 "2015-10-22T12:32:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not accurate that they tell us nothing. Truly unelectable candidates will appear unelectable no matter when you do the polling. And Trump has looked very unelectable. At least until Clinton started having her own problems. > > It’s not so much that Trump is electable as SOMEONE has to win the election, and anyone can compete with Clinton. I’m not sure if they even tell us this much. I recall some odd results from early polling in '11, particularly with Santorum, IIRC, but also with Herman Cain and others. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/43 "2015-10-22T12:49:31Z")
I recall Romney as being the only plausible competitor to Obama. Doing a quick search: Santorum vs. Obama: Obama+7.8 [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general\_election\_santorum\_vs\_obama-2912.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html) Gingrich vs. Obama: Obama+13.2 [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general\_election\_gingrich\_vs\_obama-1453.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_gingrich_vs_obama-1453.html) Romney vs. Obama shows the entire campaign as opposed to just the primaries, but if you scroll through the polls you show a lot more polls with a Romney lead than Santorum or Gingrich enjoyed during the same period. Santorum and Gingrich only led in about 2-3 polls out of dozens taken, whereas Romney led or tied in about a quarter to a third of them. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general\_election\_romney\_vs\_obama-1171.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/44 "2015-10-22T13:01:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I recall Romney as being the only plausible competitor to Obama. Doing a quick search: > > Santorum vs. Obama: Obama+7.8 > > [RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Santorum vs. Obama](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html) > > Gingrich vs. Obama: Obama+13.2 > > [RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Gingrich vs. Obama](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_gingrich_vs_obama-1453.html) > > Romney vs. Obama shows the entire campaign as opposed to just the primaries, but if you scroll through the polls you show a lot more polls with a Romney lead than Santorum or Gingrich enjoyed during the same period. Santorum and Gingrich only led in about 2-3 polls out of dozens taken, whereas Romney led or tied in about a quarter to a third of them. > > [2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) I was talking about general election polls _this early_ in the cycle. I can’t find polls from this early in 2011 in your links. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/45 "2015-10-22T13:10:06Z")
They are there, just scroll ALL the way down. And you’re right, there are a couple of isolated polls showing Santorum and Gingrich with leads in 2011. Santorum had two tiny leads, both in February when he was riding high off his Iowa win. Gingrich had one tiny lead, in July 2011. Trump already has two 5 point leads and two ties, so he’s outperforming Santorum and Gingrich. Of course, Clinton has still led the vast majority of polls, but we’ll see how Trump does in the coming weeks of polling. If he shows a few more leads and ties against Clinton then he’s probably at least plausibly electable. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/46 "2015-10-22T13:10:27Z")
> [@glowacks](#): > > I think a lot of states have recently added “sore loser” laws that prevent anyone who appears on the ballot in a primary election can only appear on the general election ballot as the nominee from the party that they were on the primary ballot for. It was spurred by a fairly high profile case of someone managing to win an election as a 3rd party despite losing his party’s nomination, but I don’t remember who it was or where. The only case like this that I remember off the top of my head is Joe Lieberman’s run for the senate as an independent. I’m sure I’m probably forgetting another case or two. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/47 "2015-10-22T13:15:56Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > The only case like this that I remember off the top of my head is Joe Lieberman’s run for the senate as an independent. I’m sure I’m probably forgetting another case or two. There was Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who won as a write-in after being knocked off by TeaPartier Joe Miller in the primary in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/48 "2015-10-22T13:16:41Z")
I think Trump definitely has a chance at the Republican nomination. He does not have a chance in the general election against Clinton. My guess is he would probably loose against Sanders as well. What’s interesting to consider is what happens if none of the candidates drop out between now and New Hampshire. If the establishment candidates continue to split the vote, I think that gives Trump the best chance of winning in New Hampshire. Once he gets a primary victory under his belt, momentum might carry him the rest of the way. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/49 "2015-10-22T13:17:11Z")
Murkowski did it too. I don’t really like sore loser laws because genuinely popular incumbents should have a chance to face the electorate and not be upended by a minority of the minority in a primary. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/50 "2015-10-22T13:18:04Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > There was Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who won as a write-in after being knocked off by TeaPartier Joe Miller in the primary in 2010. I knew I had forgotten another one :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/51 "2015-10-22T13:23:35Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > What’s interesting to consider is what happens if none of the candidates drop out between now and New Hampshire. If the establishment candidates continue to split the vote, I think that gives Trump the best chance of winning in New Hampshire. Once he gets a primary victory under his belt, momentum might carry him the rest of the way. That’s the only possible way for him to win the nomination: for the others to continue splitting the not-so-crazy vote. Maybe we should all start donating to the mainstream GOP candidates. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/52 "2015-10-22T13:27:00Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > Sure, he’ll get smoked amongst Latinos, but how about whites? Mitt Romney won whites 60-40 in 2012. If Trump can win whites 65-35… Right away I simply don’t believe this possible. Trump has very enthusiastic supporters amongst white people, and you hear the really loudly right now. His haters are equally enthusiastic and you’d hear them loudly on election day. Trump cannot win Florida. Where does he get those electoral votes back? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/53 "2015-10-22T13:33:47Z")
Ahem: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida\_trump\_vs\_clinton-5635.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html) Trump and Clinton are tied in Florida. I don’t know what’s in the polls, but it seems to me that Trump could outperform among whites because he’d bring in many white voters who normally don’t vote. If you can get people to watch debates who normally wouldn’t you can get them to vote. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/54 "2015-10-22T13:35:56Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Particularly if Ben Carson wins Iowa and Trump wins New Hampshire (where can I get some money down on this particular outcome? :)) And right on schedule, the latest Quinnipiac poll of Iowa shows [Carson with a clear lead over Trump, 28-20.](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/ben-carson-leads-donald-trump-iowa-quinnipiac) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/55 "2015-10-22T14:13:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … If you can get people to watch debates who normally wouldn’t you can get them to vote. Choices of entertainment does not predict a decision to vote or how to vote. People might not be able to stop themselves from clicking to see Beiber’s penis but that does not mean they would come out to vote for him if he was running for President Remember that more GOP primary voters also view Trump very unfavorably as well. Seriously the likely impact on turn-out would be that some usual GOP voters would not be able to stomach voting for either Trump or Hillary and would stay home and some marginal voters will come out not to vote for Hillary but to vote against Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/56 "2015-10-22T15:26:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Out of those five, one showed him ahead, another tied, for an average of 2.5 behind Clinton. > > Given that Republicans gain a little once polls switch to likely voters(yes, registered voter polls are skewed against Republicans, look it up). Trump could certainly win if the election were held today. Probably not, but could. > > [Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voter-polls-will-usually-overrate-democrats/) Thanks. I know when I want help interpreting polls, you’re the first person I turn to. On the other hand, this is nonsense. As always, you’re ignoring a wealth of polling data to focus on the one (Fox!) outlier poll that shows what you want to see. > [@adaher](#): > > Murkowski did it too. I don’t really like sore loser laws because genuinely popular incumbents should have a chance to face the electorate and not be upended by a minority of the minority in a primary. In other news, I completely agree with adaher. There, I said it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/57 "2015-10-22T20:10:44Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Particularly if Ben Carson wins Iowa and Trump wins New Hampshire (where can I get some money down on this particular outcome? :)) You can put your money [here](https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/53/President). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/58 "2015-10-22T22:33:13Z")
I think Trumps’ ceiling is 30% or so and he’s starting to fall a little below that. Once more establishment candidates start exiting I think we’ll see guys like Rubio show more strength. The problem is that depending on how you measure the outsider vs. insider vote, the outsiders have 50-65% of the vote right now. So I think that Ben Carson, probably the strongest of the outsiders’, chances are way underrated by the betting markets right now. If he’s the last outsider still standin I can easily see him commanding a majority. No one has a higher approval rating among Republicans, or the overall public for that matter. Unless he has some gaffes that are worse than what we’ve already seen, you may be looking at President Carson next year. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/59 "2015-10-22T22:41:52Z")
Literally no one in the entire field - both parties - is less qualified than Carson. Well, maybe Fiorina. The idea that the American public would elect a neurosurgeon as President is so unprecedented. I would probably sell Carson stock at a penny. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2015, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/60 "2015-10-22T22:43:15Z")
I don’t think anyone besides his fans are paying attention to Carson; as soon as people hear the utterly bonkers wingnut stuff he says, his approval will plummet. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325.md?page=4)