# Can Donald Trump Actually Win The White House? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 21, 2015, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325 "2015-10-21T04:46:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/101 "2015-10-24T20:21:44Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > A really smart guy would locate himself so that he could scoot over the border before the Canadians close it. That’s what a real smart guy would do. I thought closed borders were evil? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/102 "2015-10-24T20:49:42Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > You mean something they don’t already have? Overdue library books? She colors her hair, thus lying to the American people? Since she makes a joke of the fact that she won’t go grey in the White House because she’s been coloring her hair for years, this would not be a scandal. Okay, more scandalous than Bengazi, maybe. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/103 "2015-10-24T20:52:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > See, that’s the difference between Trump fans and Clinton fans. The Trump fans know who their guy is. Clinton fans are completely divorced from reality. Damn, I’m glad I wasn’t drinking anything when I read that. Trump’s policy proposals basically amount to, “I’ll come up with something, and it’ll by _yoooge_, because of me.” And _Clinton_ fans are the ones divorced from reality. OK, maybe it _is_ that time of day. [Sonuvabitch, gimme a drink.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iAYhQsQhSY) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/104 "2015-10-24T21:11:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > See, that’s the difference between Trump fans and Clinton fans. The Trump fans know who their guy is. Clinton fans are completely divorced from reality. Did you know that most _Republican_ commentators agree that Clinton looked good on Thursday, and Gowdy Doody and his Clown Crew looked stupid? Maybe someday you’ll figure out that this is a bullshit, bogus scandal that has nothing to do with anything. They didn’t interview people like Petraeus, who was head of the CIA at the time, but they’re obsessed with…_Sidney Blumenthal??_ WTF?! Clearly it was neither an act of terrorism, nor a mob roused to anger by a video. Instead, Blumenthal must’ve organized the attack. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/105 "2015-10-25T13:24:19Z")
Trump will not be President. He will not be the GOP nominee. He has no chance. Carson has even less of a chance. Polls mean absolutely nothing right now; not primary polls and especially not hypothetical general election polls. This is the time when the crazies shine. It happened in 2011 and it’s happening now. They may even be getting a bigger spotlight this time around because of the proliferation of social media. By the time the primaries start to come around, the crazies will be dropping and the real candidates will emerge. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/106 "2015-10-25T16:05:32Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > [Here’s how](http://www.270towin.com/maps/qy71N) the map looks if Trump is the nominee. He has no chance whatsoever. Hillary would swallow him up and spit out his bones much like a snake handling a desert rat. The Republicans are in fear of him getting the nomination and are going to pull every dirty trick in the book to deny it to him. Other Republicans have only marginally better chances but Trump would turn the race into a blue landslide tsunami earthquake nuclear bomb killer asteroid election. Better yet, if the GOP Establishment is forced to resort to blatant dirty tricks, Trump will get pissed enough to wipe his ass with that no-independent-run plegde, and a big chunk of his support will get pissed enough to follow, possibly resulting in another third-place finish for the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/107 "2015-10-25T16:17:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not so much that Trump is electable as SOMEONE has to win the election, and anyone can compete with Clinton. Uh… yeah… [about that](http://images.dailykos.com/images/171992/large/TextFromHillaryToGowdy.jpg)… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/108 "2015-10-25T16:43:12Z")
Lot of the people I read about all this are making pointed references to the increasing support of women for Hillary. They seem to have gotten it into their pretty little heads that her treatment by the Committee is just the sort of belligerent stubbornness that they endure from men on a regular basis. That they like that she stood her ground, kept her cool, and beat them at their own game, with their own rules. Guys, its time for us to just get out of their way. Let the soft guys with the wobbly bits run things. Maybe they can’t do better, but could they do worse? Leave us a lot more time for beer and fishing. Let us stand together in solidarity and say with one loud, clear voice “Yes, dear”. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/109 "2015-10-25T18:25:18Z")
[ > [@](#): > > Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that’s the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest. ]([http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US\_AP\_POLL\_GOP\_2016?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-25-08-37-25](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AP_POLL_GOP_2016?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-25-08-37-25)) If he gets the nom, he’s gonna get their votes, it seems. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/110 "2015-10-26T00:36:02Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Trump isn’t scary. Is he going to build a wall via executive order? Are executive orders that powerful now? Um the idea of a laughably ignorant man making policy off of the top of his head or representing the US in -yes- negotiations is scary. Luckily I trust it won’t happen. Normal people hire auto mechanics to fix cars. Not cooks. They hire cooks to prepare food. Not carpenters. They support people with political experience to run countries. [Not ignoramuses.](http://www.nationalmemo.com/an-engineer-explains-why-trumps-wall-is-so-implausible/) Don’t get me wrong. I like Trump. I follow him on Twitter. He’s funny. And his supporters are even more hilarious, albeit unintentionally. So yes, Trump is fully qualified to run in the GOP primary: it’s not like he’s their only self-promoter who has little desire for the Oval office. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/111 "2015-10-26T00:59:11Z")
Actually, building a wall is already authorized, as is a biometric entry/exit system. A President can certainly use his executive power to actually build what Congress ordered built years ago. The only reason those things haven’t been built is because the bills were always just for show, classic bait and switch for the rubes. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/112 "2015-10-26T01:58:22Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [url=[http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US\_AP\_POLL\_GOP\_2016?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-25-08-37-25](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AP_POLL_GOP_2016?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-25-08-37-25)] > If he gets the nom, he’s gonna get their votes, it seems. There is no logical connection between those steps. To make that clear, within the actual linked to topline results, 75% of all of the polled population (Republicans, Democrats, Independents, all) believes that Hillary could win, while not a single GOP candidate has even 50% believing they can. That does not mean that the 75% will vote for her. Interesting what they chose to highlight as their lede. They could just have easily highlighted this: > [@](#): > > Trump and Bush have the highest negative ratings within their own party: 37 percent of Republican voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush and 36 percent say the same of Trump. > > Their negatives are even more pronounced among the broader electorate. The AP-GfK poll found Trump is viewed unfavorably by 57 percent of those surveyed, the highest negatives of any Republican candidate. Bush is next with unfavorable ratings from 48 percent of all respondents. Even there they phrase it interestingly: “the highest negatives of any Republican candidate”? Of _any_ candidate. No one else of either party got over 48%. His net negative number was the highest at 26 and 43% have a “very unfavorable impression” of him. Even _Cruz_ is disliked by fewer and has a better net score. Or that the top three “favorable impression” names were in order Obama, Clinton, and Biden. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/113 "2015-10-26T04:29:35Z")
Sure, Trump may have the highest negatives now. But to be fair, as the other Republican candidates get better known, their negatives will likely rise as well. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/114 "2015-10-26T05:57:42Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > Trump will not be President. He will not be the GOP nominee. He has no chance. Carson has even less of a chance. Polls mean absolutely nothing right now; not primary polls and especially not hypothetical general election polls. > > This is the time when the crazies shine. It happened in 2011 and it’s happening now. They may even be getting a bigger spotlight this time around because of the proliferation of social media. By the time the primaries start to come around, the crazies will be dropping and the real candidates will emerge. I would tend to agree, though there’s evidence against this. Consider the outsider vote in 2012, consisting of Herbert Cain and Michelle Bachmann. It broke 30% once, but never hit the 60-65% range which we’ve experienced since late August. In contrast, establishment candidates make up just under 20% of the vote now. [http://wm40.inbox.com/thumbs/93\_130b2b\_ed17ae9\_oP.png.thumb](http://wm40.inbox.com/thumbs/93_130b2b_ed17ae9_oP.png.thumb) [http://wm40.inbox.com/thumbs/94\_130b2a\_21c96c3c\_oG.gif.thumb](http://wm40.inbox.com/thumbs/94_130b2a_21c96c3c_oG.gif.thumb) > **[Introducing the Jimmy Carter Outsider Index, 2016 Republican Primary Edition](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=770735)** > > Using polling data from Real Clear Politics, I assemble an index of Republican candidates running as inexperienced outsiders, just like Jimmy Carter did in 1976. It’s a varied lot. It includes Trump, Fiorina and Carson. None of those candidates have... The Republicans have a number of plausible candidates, but they are losing. In national and New Hampshire polling, Rubio and Bush are in single digits. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/115 "2015-10-26T14:50:50Z")
pretty much every 7th-grader in this country knows what a [Bill of Attainder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_of_attainder) is, yet the presidential candidate everyone is paying attention to [doesn’t.](http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2015/10/26/ford-canceling-mexican-plans-despite-trump/74617558/) _“Let me give you the bad news: Every car, every truck and every part manufactured in this plant that comes across the border, we’re going to charge you a 35 percent tax,” Trump said. “They are going to take away thousands of jobs.”_ ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/116 "2015-10-26T20:57:59Z")
Are we supposed to hunt through that link to find where he’s proposing a Bill of Attainder, or did you intend to quote that part yourself? > [@](#): > > Quoth **Measure for Measure** : > > I would tend to agree, though there’s evidence against this. Consider the outsider vote in 2012, consisting of Herbert Cain and Michelle Bachmann. And even that’s only if you count Bachmann, an elected Representative, as an “outsider”. Cain’s the only candidate from 2012 who was really comparable to Trump, Carson, and Fiorina as a true outsider, who’d never before held public office. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/117 "2015-10-26T21:35:27Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Are we supposed to hunt through that link to find where he’s proposing a Bill of Attainder, or did you intend to quote that part yourself? He quoted only a part of the relevant section: > [@](#): > > Trump has repeatedly said that if elected, he would not allow Ford to open a new plant in Mexico. At his campaign announcement speech in New York in June, Trump said he would call Fields to explain the “bad news.” > > “Let me give you the bad news: Every car, every truck and every part manufactured in this plant that comes across the border, we’re going to charge you a 35 percent tax,” Trump said. “They are going to take away thousands of jobs.” > > It isn’t clear how Trump could legally single out one automaker for punitive taxes — and the move would violate current U.S. free trade agreements. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/118 "2015-10-26T22:26:53Z")
Sounds like a Bill of Attainder to me, although I’d note that most Democrats voted for a Bill of Attainder a few years back to tax AIG employees’ bonuses 90%. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/23/AR2009032303201.html?wprss=rss\_politics](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/23/AR2009032303201.html?wprss=rss_politics) ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/119 "2015-10-26T23:43:36Z")
Three problems: 1. No one should consider anything Trump says to be a serious, thought-out policy position, so to apply a technical term such as ‘Bill of Attainder’ to anything he says is overly presumptuous. 2. No one in this thread has quoted anything to demonstrate that he’s proposing a Bill of Attainder anyway. Taxing imports of car parts and personally calling the CEO does not make a Bill of Attainder. 3. Bills of Attainder are easy to get to the point where there pass Constitutional muster. Usually, this looks something like, “The follow tax applies to any automobile manufacturing company based in Dearborn, MI and founding in 1903.” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325/120 "2015-10-26T23:49:01Z")
Neither is a bill of attainder. Trump obviously isn’t talking about singling out any one automaker for punitive taxes-- It’s pretty clear that he means for that to be a tax on _any_ automaker importing parts, or at least importing them from Mexico. It’s only relevant for those considering opening up plants there, but it’d apply to all of them. Similarly, the AIG thing didn’t target AIG specifically; it targeted a category of companies which happened to include AIG. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-donald-trump-actually-win-the-white-house/735325.md?page=7)