I dont know if he will win the white house but I do feel he could win the republican primary simply because the others are not doing so well.
Now a Trump-Fiorina, or even Fiorina/Trump, the man/woman business CEO dream team, that might have a shot.
I’m not sure if they even tell us this much. I recall some odd results from early polling in '11, particularly with Santorum, IIRC, but also with Herman Cain and others.
I recall Romney as being the only plausible competitor to Obama. Doing a quick search:
Santorum vs. Obama: Obama+7.8
Gingrich vs. Obama: Obama+13.2
Romney vs. Obama shows the entire campaign as opposed to just the primaries, but if you scroll through the polls you show a lot more polls with a Romney lead than Santorum or Gingrich enjoyed during the same period. Santorum and Gingrich only led in about 2-3 polls out of dozens taken, whereas Romney led or tied in about a quarter to a third of them.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
I was talking about general election polls this early in the cycle. I can’t find polls from this early in 2011 in your links.
They are there, just scroll ALL the way down. And you’re right, there are a couple of isolated polls showing Santorum and Gingrich with leads in 2011.
Santorum had two tiny leads, both in February when he was riding high off his Iowa win.
Gingrich had one tiny lead, in July 2011.
Trump already has two 5 point leads and two ties, so he’s outperforming Santorum and Gingrich. Of course, Clinton has still led the vast majority of polls, but we’ll see how Trump does in the coming weeks of polling. If he shows a few more leads and ties against Clinton then he’s probably at least plausibly electable.
The only case like this that I remember off the top of my head is Joe Lieberman’s run for the senate as an independent. I’m sure I’m probably forgetting another case or two.
There was Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who won as a write-in after being knocked off by TeaPartier Joe Miller in the primary in 2010.
I think Trump definitely has a chance at the Republican nomination. He does not have a chance in the general election against Clinton. My guess is he would probably loose against Sanders as well.
What’s interesting to consider is what happens if none of the candidates drop out between now and New Hampshire. If the establishment candidates continue to split the vote, I think that gives Trump the best chance of winning in New Hampshire. Once he gets a primary victory under his belt, momentum might carry him the rest of the way.
Murkowski did it too. I don’t really like sore loser laws because genuinely popular incumbents should have a chance to face the electorate and not be upended by a minority of the minority in a primary.
I knew I had forgotten another one :smack:
That’s the only possible way for him to win the nomination: for the others to continue splitting the not-so-crazy vote. Maybe we should all start donating to the mainstream GOP candidates. 
Right away I simply don’t believe this possible. Trump has very enthusiastic supporters amongst white people, and you hear the really loudly right now. His haters are equally enthusiastic and you’d hear them loudly on election day.
Trump cannot win Florida. Where does he get those electoral votes back?
Ahem:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
Trump and Clinton are tied in Florida.
I don’t know what’s in the polls, but it seems to me that Trump could outperform among whites because he’d bring in many white voters who normally don’t vote. If you can get people to watch debates who normally wouldn’t you can get them to vote.
And right on schedule, the latest Quinnipiac poll of Iowa shows Carson with a clear lead over Trump, 28-20.
Choices of entertainment does not predict a decision to vote or how to vote. People might not be able to stop themselves from clicking to see Beiber’s penis but that does not mean they would come out to vote for him if he was running for President
Remember that more GOP primary voters also view Trump very unfavorably as well. Seriously the likely impact on turn-out would be that some usual GOP voters would not be able to stomach voting for either Trump or Hillary and would stay home and some marginal voters will come out not to vote for Hillary but to vote against Trump.
Thanks. I know when I want help interpreting polls, you’re the first person I turn to.
On the other hand, this is nonsense. As always, you’re ignoring a wealth of polling data to focus on the one (Fox!) outlier poll that shows what you want to see.
In other news, I completely agree with adaher. There, I said it.
You can put your money here.
I think Trumps’ ceiling is 30% or so and he’s starting to fall a little below that. Once more establishment candidates start exiting I think we’ll see guys like Rubio show more strength. The problem is that depending on how you measure the outsider vs. insider vote, the outsiders have 50-65% of the vote right now. So I think that Ben Carson, probably the strongest of the outsiders’, chances are way underrated by the betting markets right now. If he’s the last outsider still standin I can easily see him commanding a majority. No one has a higher approval rating among Republicans, or the overall public for that matter. Unless he has some gaffes that are worse than what we’ve already seen, you may be looking at President Carson next year.
Literally no one in the entire field - both parties - is less qualified than Carson. Well, maybe Fiorina. The idea that the American public would elect a neurosurgeon as President is so unprecedented. I would probably sell Carson stock at a penny.
I don’t think anyone besides his fans are paying attention to Carson; as soon as people hear the utterly bonkers wingnut stuff he says, his approval will plummet.