Is that in todays dollars or 2050 dollars?
Cause, 92K in 2050 might not be much scratch at all.
If you have some free time, Hans Rosling has more optimistic predictions in one of his TEDTalks videos.
The Wiki link provided says “nominal”, which means not adjusted for inflation. But I don’t know the exact method of the calculation, so I can’t say what it exactly means.
However, doubling of real GDP per capita over 40 would not be surprising.
China will drink their milkshake! Drink it up!
Off-topic, but that gives me hope. I might be still alive to see a planet that is relatively middle-class. Such an incredible change from when I was a child.
A measley average of 1 percent inflation over 40 years reduces that value by a factor 0.7
1.5 percent inflation is 0.55. 2 percent and now its down to 0.45. So, if they are right on the GDP part, lets hope the inflation rate stays really low.
Predictions 40 years in the future are worthless. I would have liked to see someone in 1920 predict world economies in 1960. It’s a little more complicated then just taking today’s growth rates and extrapolating them. Guessing which long-term variables will have an effect decades in the future is impossible.
Exactly why I said that we need more info. “Nominal” generally indicates that inflation is not accounted for, but we don’t know what inflation will be in the next 40 years.
A quick glance at Wiki’s cite (see pg 11) shows that the numbers are given in 2006 US$.
Brandus, I definitely wouldn’t say that these predictions are worthless. Take a look at China’s historical gdp from Wolfram Alpha. Quite consistent growth over the past ~40 years. Same story for India and the US.
My gues is it will go something like this:
Someone post-Kim succumbs to reform-mindedness or economic pressures and allows more visitors, esp. from South Korea. People begin to realize they’ve been had.
If anyone tries to commit a coup “to get back to the old days” chaos ensues, and the various factions begin fighting among themselves. a repspressive regime is only as good as the armies they can muster. One NK item I recall reading said the leaders (Kim) ensured they kept the top brass fearful, split paranoid and at each other’s throats, to prevent any one person from getting enough control and power to stage a coup.
As chaos spreads, the various factions forces might drop their weapons and flee, all border guards in an area shoot ther political officers and cross the border, for example - now no more border control. Others start looting; if you turn a troop loose with live ammo to take over someone’s mansion full of luxury goods and food, do you think they’ll stop when you say “but not the one across the street - he’s on my side”? Not far from there to armed gangs roaming and looting. If the discipline is based on fear, then when the troops realize they have nothing to fear, you have no control.
The shah lost when he could no longer rely on his troops to fire on rioting civilians.
Eventually someone - likely a pact between South Korea and China - will let troops drive in from the borders to take over, settle the situation, and start getting things working again. Round up the top brass, and if SK is faster, put them on trial; if China is faster, shoot to kill in a stadium on national TV. the country will become like Albania - free, but unruly and dangerous, and their poorer citizens have a bad reputation and will not be allowed into SK or China without visas - reverse iron curtain. The lucky ones will have made it across the borders early.
Like eastern Europe, when the end comes it will be swift.
Another article I read said that the “accidental explosion” a few years back near the border with China was actually aimed at Kim’s train (he was visiting China) and he escaped by secretly coming back 20 hours early. The fact that some factions in NK can arrange a trainload of explosives to attempt a coup tells you how vicious and lethal and at how high a level the instability is. The fact that he knows this and takes excessive precautions tells you that it’s not new and won’t stop. I wonder if they have the capacity to handle a Gorbachev-type leader?
Makes Saddam’s regime look sane and healthy, Udai and his woodchipper notwithstanding.
¿Usted habla español?
I think the problem will be aggravated by the fact that the small but powerful NK privileged class–the officers and their families, high-level bureaucrats and scientists, the guides and tourism workers who alone are allowed to conduct foreigners around now–will flee the second the border is open. That will leave the huddled masses without anybody who knows how the few things that work, work.
But it will make for some interesting war crimes trials, or if the privileged class is lucky - a Truth and Reconciliation Committee. This is probably the thing they fear most. The local citizenry will be out for blood, and the rest of the world will be happy to deal with anyone who appears to have blood on their hands.
The frightening thing is they have nobody to step in that I’m aware of - nobody in oppposition, no Karzai or Kohmehni or such sitting in exile or house arrest but known to the people well enough to step in and control the chaos.
“May you live in interesting times”. They will.
I was going to start another thread but remembered I made one 3 years ago.
So Kim Jong Il never appointed a reformer, the old rule stands. Another interesting (depending on how you define interesting) factoid I recently read about North Korea is that 25% of military conscripts are rejected because they are too retarded, mostly because of childhood malnutrition causing permanent brain damage. Also a study by a subsidy of a US intelligence agency found that this widespread retardation could prevent the North from rebuilding their economy even if they do undergo reform, since so many people will be unable to function in a market based technocracy.
So even if there is reform, you have a nation full of paranoid, retarded, xenophobic, poorly educated, misinformed, brainwashed, diseased, PTSD sufferers with complex emotional problems who will probably never trust authority again after they realize how badly they’ve been duped. Maybe their kids will enjoy a halfway decent standard of living 20-30 years after the system falls.
Then again China got their act together after Mao and his fuckups.
I figure 20 years (or less) after they get some form of democracy, there will be North Koreans wistfully remembering and wishing the return of the rule of the Kims.
They already did, 13 years ago.
In North Korea it is year 102 right now. BOOM
People are adaptable creatures. There isn’t anything us people can think up that people can’t find some way to live in. And while it’s still shitty, the North Korea of today is not the same as the North Korea of the famine-ridden 1990s. The people themselves will find a way to roll with the punches. It will be tough for some members of the first generation, but there will be others that take to the new order like ducks to water. It won’t take long until this is a bad memory.
Economically? That’s a different story.
The best case scenario that I see is North Korea taking on some of the low-wage industries that are becoming economically uncompetitive in China. The Chinese workforce is getting better educated, and there are jobs they are starting to get priced out of. China is sending a lot of this to Africa, but North Korea would be just as good. They could continue to work along these lines, until they become economically integrated with China.
The key to anything, however, is saving face. North Korea is not going to do anything that implies that they were ever wrong. They’ll need to have some path to transition that allows them to pretend like they’ve been doing the right thing all along, and what comes next is just a natural transition. That’s what finally worked in China.
Didn’t take nearly that long in Russia after the USSR fell.
This is an interesting topic and I have often wondered about this. If things just go status quo for another few decades, is it possible they will start having a hard time finding people to run the country? I mean, could it all just fall down like a house of cards, sort of implode from within at some point if there are not enough people qualified for government and military leadership positions? If N Korea were to collapse internally rather than from external forces, the world would be facing a catastrophic health care situation - what could other nations do to help the millions of commoners, who are probably suffering from many of the ailments you describe. I doubt they could just be absorbed into neighboring China.
OTOH, as **even sven **says, today China moving some industry to Africa where there are scads of smart and motivated people looking for an opportunity is not a bad thing, as opposed to going to N Korea.
Kind of doubt it.
The elite ruling class is still well fed and educated. And things are largely passed down based on lineage and jobs given out on nepotism anyway. Their children aren’t malnourished and mentally impaired and are trained to take over.
That doesn’t guarantee the smartest or most able ruling class, but it is a model that’s worked for a good portion of human history.