# Can Obama win if he drops below McCain in the polls? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 5, 2008, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154 "2008-09-05T10:12:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![hansel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6bbea6/32.png) [@hansel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hansel)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/21 "2008-09-06T03:06:45Z")
> [@Rachm\_Qoch](#): > > The one thing Obama has going against him is the number of people who privately are against voting in a black president. I wouldn’t be surprised of a 7 point difference between the final polls and election results. I’ve heard of this (the “Bradley Effect”), but I’m not aware that it’s been reliably demonstrated to exist. Is anyone aware of it being proven? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/22 "2008-09-06T03:32:14Z")
I hate to be the naysayer, but if McCain is even or ahead in national polls in early November, Obama is cooked. I say this for two reasons. First, Obama is generally polling pretty well in red states like North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia, and probably doing better than I’d otherwise think in Texas. McCain is going to win those states and get their EVs, even if Obama draws in millions more votes from all of those red states (and others). So in essence, Obama’s national numbers are probably a wee bit inflated, non-landline voters notwithstanding. (And on that point, I’ll believe young cell-phone only voters will vote in large numbers when they actually head to the polls, and not a minute before.) Furthermore, I believe race is still an issue when people answer polls. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that, just like in the Harold Ford-Bob Corker race in Tennessee in 06, some white voters are simply going to change their mind once they get in the booth. Not because they will say to themselves they can’t vote for a black man, but because they’ll come up with an excuse why voting for Obama isn’t a safe choice for them. I’m still optimistic that Obama will win, but if McCain is even or ahead in national polls at election day, I’m not sure how Obama can pull off a Bush-Gore kind of lose the national vote and squeak by in the key states. ---
**Author:** ![Rachm\_Qoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a8b319/32.png) [@Rachm\_Qoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachm_Qoch)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/23 "2008-09-06T03:53:07Z")
> [@hansel](#): > > I’ve heard of this (the “Bradley Effect”), but I’m not aware that it’s been reliably demonstrated to exist. Is anyone aware of it being proven? I don’t know. Maybe it’s a myth. But enough otherwise decent people who have no problems dealing with black folks are telling me they don’t want them in charge of things, and it’s giving me Harvey Gantt deja vu. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/24 "2008-09-06T03:57:31Z")
Gallup calls cell phones. From the Gallup Daily Tracker boilerplate: > [@](#): > > Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only). I read an [article](http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_adds_cell_phone_intervi.php) about it before and they ask if they’re calling a cell phone and, if so, is the cell phone their only phone. If it is, they count it into their polling. I assume that if you say you have a landline then they take you off the list. I have no idea if Rasmussen does cell phones or not. [Hotline/FD](http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/) have started a daily tracker from now until the elections. I have no idea how reputable they are and they seem to use a significantly smaller sample than Gallup/Rasmussen (~900 vs ~2800) but it’ll be nice to have a third daily voice to the mix given how Gallup & Rasmussen often differ noticably from one another. RCP adds them to their scores so at least they must be better than ARG 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/25 "2008-09-06T04:02:48Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Gallup calls cell phones. From the Gallup Daily Tracker boilerplate:I read an [article](http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_adds_cell_phone_intervi.php) about it before and they ask if they’re calling a cell phone and, if so, is the cell phone their only phone. If it is, they count it into their polling. I assume that if you say you have a landline then they take you off the list. I have no idea if Rasmussen does cell phones or not. > > [Hotline/FD](http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/) have started a daily tracker from now until the elections. I have no idea how reputable they are and they seem to use a significantly smaller sample than Gallup/Rasmussen (~900 vs ~2800) but it’ll be nice to have a third daily voice to the mix given how Gallup & Rasmussen often differ noticably from one another. RCP adds them to their scores so at least they must be better than ARG 😉 That explains why Gallup consistently shows Obama a few points higher than the other polls. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/26 "2008-09-06T04:23:31Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > That’s how I see it too, all in all, but I don’t think it’ll be a rout. There are still quite a few people who wouldn’t tell a pollster they won’t, under any circumstances, vote for a black candidate (just ask Andrew Young or Tom Bradley). [538.com](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) did an article about the “Bradley Effect.” He noted that during the primaries, Obama actually OUTPERFORMED his polling numbers, not underperformed. The conclusion is your’s whether you can generalize this to the general election however. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/27 "2008-09-06T04:25:46Z")
> [@hansel](#): > > I’ve heard of this (the “Bradley Effect”), but I’m not aware that it’s been reliably demonstrated to exist. Is anyone aware of it being proven? I remember a pretty well-sourced _Newsweek_ article a few years back that was more convincing than I wish it had been. It seems to be an article of faith among Dem strategists. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/28 "2008-09-06T04:27:26Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > [538.com](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) did an article about the “Bradley Effect.” He noted that during the primaries, Obama actually OUTPERFORMED his polling numbers, not underperformed. The conclusion is your’s whether you can generalize this to the general election however. Here it is: [The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html) ---
**Author:** ![Rachm\_Qoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a8b319/32.png) [@Rachm\_Qoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachm_Qoch)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/29 "2008-09-06T08:10:08Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > Here it is: > > [The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html) Sure, ever since he proved himself a viable candidate Obama’s had the black voted locked up. And since blacks are disproportionately represented in the Democratic party, you’d expect such an effect. But what about the other 60 something percent of the electorate? Put another way, would we still expect a black Republican to outperform the polls in the presidential primaries? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2008, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/30 "2008-09-06T23:23:15Z")
It gets called the Bradley Effect only by those wishing to prove that race doesn’t matter. The Douglas Wilder Effect or the Harvey Gantt Effect would be more appropriate names. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/31 "2008-09-08T07:20:42Z")
I guess we’re about to find out if Obama can win if he drops below McCain: [Gallup Daily: McCain moves ahead 48% to 45%](http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx) [USA Today/Gallup: McCain ahead 4% among registered voters, 10% among likely voters](http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm) Bear in mind that the 3 day tracking polls started before the convention ended. McCain will probably get more of a bump tomorrow yet, and maybe some more on Tuesday. Rasmussen electoral college has Obama leading slightly, 193 to 183. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/32 "2008-09-08T15:05:10Z")
because of sam, I will be voting for McCain. I love Obama and believe in everything he says. I also believe that Palin is not qualified tn be President. I an also old enough and wise enough to realize there are those more learned and smarter than me . I hope sam is right. I have trusted him up to now. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/33 "2008-09-08T15:10:27Z")
i only posted this because everyone thinks they can change minds arguing. Tv does work once in a great long while. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/34 "2008-09-08T15:12:55Z")
From a non-partisan standpoint, I wonder what’s up with RCP including the Gallup/USA poll. I say this because they excluded the last Gallup/USA poll showing Obama ahead by +9 or so because it included some Gallup tracker data and they felt it muddied the waters to use the same data twice. From what I’ve read, the new Gallup/USA poll uses the same methodology but RCP has included it in their tracking. It is what it is but it seems shakey is all. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/35 "2008-09-08T15:18:59Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I guess we’re about to find out if Obama can win if he drops below McCain: > > [Gallup Daily: McCain moves ahead 48% to 45%](http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx) > > [USA Today/Gallup: McCain ahead 4% among registered voters, 10% among likely voters](http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm) > > Bear in mind that the 3 day tracking polls started before the convention ended. McCain will probably get more of a bump tomorrow yet, and maybe some more on Tuesday. > > Rasmussen electoral college has Obama leading slightly, 193 to 183. What would be funny would be if Obama lost the popular vote but won in the electoral college. Just to see the flip-flops. IIRC, this is what happened with Bush in 2004 - he was behind in the polls and then moved into a permanent lead after the convention. And then went on to win the election, fair and square. Not saying this will necessarily happen here, just that it is not unprecedented. Wonder if the MSM will start sending out memos to slant the coverage against McCain, or fake up some documents. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/36 "2008-09-08T15:41:54Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > IIRC, this is what happened with Bush in 2004 - he was behind in the polls and then moved into a permanent lead after the convention. Bush was [ahead](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html) prior to the conventions (he was leading in late August with the convention from Aug 30-Sept 2) although his lead didn’t really open up until afterwards. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/37 "2008-09-08T15:51:03Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > [Gallup Daily: McCain moves ahead 48% to 45%](http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx) > > [USA Today/Gallup: McCain ahead 4% among registered voters, 10% among likely voters](http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm) > > Bear in mind that the 3 day tracking polls started before the convention ended. McCain will probably get more of a bump tomorrow yet, and maybe some more on Tuesday. This is disturbing. And irritating. And somewhat nauseating. Oh, well, at least there’s this: > [@](#): > > Rasmussen electoral college has Obama leading slightly, 193 to 183. And this: > [@usatoday.com](#): > > However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, [political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia] concluded that post-convention polls signal the election’s outcome only about half the time. “You could flip a coin and be about as predictive,” he says. “It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade.” ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/38 "2008-09-08T16:16:46Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > What would be funny would be if Obama lost the popular vote but won in the electoral college. Just to see the flip-flops. There would be plenty of flip-flopping on both sides. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/39 "2008-09-08T16:52:35Z")
I really don’t understand the logic behind the Bradley Effect, or whatever you want to call it. If someone doesn’t want to vote for Obama because he’s black, why would they tell a pollster that they were going to vote for him, when they could just make up some other reason for not voting for him? I really can’t picture someone who is uncomfortable with an African American as president ever saying to anyone that they’d vote for him. If they were self-conscious about their reasons, they could just as easily say they were voting for McCain or whomever because they didn’t agree with Obama’s policies. Am I totally misunderstanding what you all are saying? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2008, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154/40 "2008-09-08T17:06:37Z")
The Rasmussen tracking [poll](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)puts McCain ahead marginally at 47-46. That sound about right to me; I am pretty sure the one with a 10 point lead will turn out to be an outlier. At this stage figuring out who the likely voters is pretty dubious. McCain got a decent bounce from the convention but we will have to wait a few more days before we can figure out if the race has been significantly altered after the convention cycle. My hunch is that it will return to something like before with Obama up a few points. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/can-obama-win-if-he-drops-below-mccain-in-the-polls/462154.md?page=3)